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How Did The Models Perform?


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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Just to note that this upcoming change was picked by naefs anomaly charts whilst we we're till in the trough doldrums with no end in sight if you just paid attention to the operational runs.

Not really enough pattern changes since the gefs upgrade in feb to make an informed judgement but one would hope that naefs is now even better than it used to be.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

The first indications started on the 3 500mb anomaly charts around 10-12 May and have consistently since made this a feature

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

The first indications started on the 3 500mb anomaly charts around 10-12 May and have consistently since made this a feature

maybe using your method john but i posted the following in the model thread based on naefs output:

Posted 07 May 2012 - 22:58

maybe light at the end of the trough filled tunnel with a sceuro height rise in a couple of weeks. lets hope so, though even if it verifies, no guarantee that the troughing to our west would be far enough away to leave us settled.

Posted 08 May 2012 - 13:10

at least the general rise in heights to our south and east remains consistent on the fi ens modelling. still a couple of weeks away but i would think the NOAA cpc charts should begin to show a change in the 8/14day 500mb pattern as we head through this week.

Posted 10 May 2012 - 21:49

just to say that the differences, run to run, in the reliable models (ecm, gem ukno, gfs) in the day 6/8 timeframe is very noticeable. noaa cpc have had low confidence for several days now. longer range ens still show a 'getting better' period as we approach the last week may. in the meantime, cool and changeable if not unsettled sums it up.

naefs alone isnt enough to make absolute predictions but i will be watching carefully over the next few months to see how reliable a tool it might now be to pick up on pattern changes a fortnight away

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

naefs alone isnt enough to make absolute predictions but i will be watching carefully over the next few months to see how reliable a tool it might now be to pick up on pattern changes a fortnight away

I understand your caution and I share it but the VERY early results, 10 of them if I am counting correctly, using the 500mb charts and of course looking at longer term teleconnections to make sure most are suggesting similar, is pretty encouraging. What I 'thought' was a good guide is being shown to be one IF with my usual caveat all 3 say similar things consistently.

I should of course add that the predictions they give are for 18000ft up in the atmosphere. The forecaster then has to TRY and decide how this might be at the surface.

40 years ago doing a 24 hour 180000ft prediction was far far easier than the surface prediction. That remains the case today and at day 3, 10 days or further out as well.

Yes I know the model does all the levels but ask yourself why it is so far out even 24 hours out with rainfall totals and where that falls let alone will it snow and also temperatures suffer similarly at times. The 18000ft prediction can be pretty accurate but the surface can be very far from accurate for the same date/time, again at all the time intervals.

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Another day of blue skies and sunshine across many parts of the UK today,so lets see how well the models

performed at the six day range.

Today's actual chart.

The ECM,GEM,GFS and UKMO 12z runs from the 21st of May.

ECM> GEM>

GFS> UKMO>

A decent effort from all four models,the UKMO seems to be the closest to the actual chart,the GEM is the

worst with it having low pressure over the South-East.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

More unusual weather across the UK today with a deep area of low pressure sitting just off SW england

giving 60+ mph gusts of wind near the south coast and heavy rain for many people,so how well was this picked up by the models?

Today's actual chart

The ECM,GEM,GFS and UKMO from 6 days ago.

ECM... GEM...

GFS... UKMO...

Quite a task for any model to nail the exact position and strength of a LP from 6 days out!

The UKMO was the closest regarding the LP,slightly to far west than the actual,but a good effort.The ECM and GEM

had the general idea but split the low in half.

The GFS did the worst with only a very shallow low predicted.

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  • 3 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

GFS looking very consistent at the moment in the verification stats.

2nd only to the ECM.

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

A very dramatic day for parts of the UK on the 28th of June with severe thunderstorms giving

flash flooding a few tornado's and hailstones the size of golf balls.

A memorable day indeed.

Actual chart for June 28th

ECM,GEM,GFS and UKMO predicted charts from June 22nd.

ECM.. GEM..

GFS.. UKMO..

The ECM was the clear winner this time,can't ask for much better accuracy from 6 days out

the UKMO didn't do to badly,the GEM and GFS share the wooden spoon this time.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

thanks for that, I had wondered how the models had suggested things might be.

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  • 3 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Another 6 day out check to see how the models have performed.

Todays chart

The ECM,GEM,GFS and UKMO from 6 days ago.

ECM... GEM...

GFS... UKMO...

The UKMO seems to be the winner on this occasion with it having the trough over the UK.

The others were very similar to each other but wrong in having the trough to far west.

On a more general note,the GFS has improved its accuracy recently and is now running

very close with the ECM.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Some interesting discussion in the model thread last week about what the weather would do

for the opening ceremony of the Olympic games so lets see how they did.

Friday's actual chart.

The ECM,GEM,GFS and UKMO at the 6 day range.

ecm.. gem..

gfs.. ukmo..

All four models under-estimated the low pressure just north of Scotland with the ECM making the best effort

and the GEM having a bit of a shocker!

In the end the weather was quite merciful for the opening ceremony with just a few showers,although there were some

nasty thunderstorms just over the channel in France,so really quite fortunate.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

An area of high pressure over the UK today which has been a very rare sight this summer,and

especially so on a Friday!

Today's actual chart

The ecm,gem,gfs and ukmo 12z runs from 4th of August.

ecm... gem...

gfs... ukmo...

A good effort by all the models with the gfs being the winner on this occasion with the gem probably taking the wooden spoon.

Interesting to note that all four models pretty much nailed the position of the low in the atlantic

SW of the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I'm not nit picking but curious why you say GFS is the winner-what is the difference between it and ECMWF or am I again not seeing things correctly?

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

I'm not nit picking but curious why you say GFS is the winner-what is the difference between it and ECMWF or am I again not seeing things correctly?

To be fair,it is very close between the gfs and ecm.

The ecm had the high over the UK a fraction to far south which would have allowed a westerly flow

over parts of scotland,

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  • 1 month later...
Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

A turbulent time for the models (pun intended) in the last week or so as they have

tried to get to grips with TS Nadine.

A 6 day check reveals the mayhem!

Today's actual chart.

The ECM,GEM,GFS and UKMO 12z charts from the 15th of September.

ecm.. gem..

gfs.. ukmo..

The viewer can decide the results on this one!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

easily ecm (if only for getting the 500mb pattern to our sw near enough spot on). not a contest from those charts although i wonder, given the recent ack of consistency in the output, if the op output from 12 hours before or after would have given the same winner

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

A great deal of rainfall over many parts of the country so far this week brought about

by a low pressure which was dubbed "the child of Nadine"

Some places in northern england have received over 100mm of rain in 48 hrs.

The chart for the 25th of September.

What the other models predicted from the 19th of September.

ecm.. gem..

gfs.. ukmo..

The ecm,gfs and ukmo did well on this one,the ukmo seems closest wrt the placement

of the center of the low,the gem was a bit wayward with it having the low to far north.

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  • 3 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

A wet day across some parts of the country today as a very slow moving area of low pressure

moves in with an equally slow moving band of rain which looks like causing a few

forecasting headaches before it moves away!

Today's chart and also a radar image from this evening.

The 12z runs from ecm,gem,gfs and ukmo from October the 5th

ECM.. GEM..

GFS.. UKMO..

A big ask to model the small low over the UK from 6 days out,but a clear win for the ECM which

just about managed it,very impressive.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

A potent cold blast across especially Northern parts of the UK today,with the first snow

of the season being observed in quite a few locations.

Chart for today.

The 12z ecm,gem,gfs and ukmo predictions from the 20th of October.

ecm.. gem..

gfs.. ukmo..

A good performance from all 4 models with the ecm probably the "winner",although

the scandi trough was modelled a touch to far east.

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  • 3 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

A random check to see how the models have performed for today's fairly benign

weather across the UK.

Today's chart.

The ecm,gem,gfs and ukmo predictions from the 9th of November.

ecm.. gem..

gfs.. ukmo..

Another stunning result for the ecm,very impressive.

Very good also from the gfs,the gem was a bit wide of the mark and

as for the ukmo....oh dear!

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Drier but colder weather over the UK today so lets see how the models performed.

Today's chart.

The ecm,gem,gfs and ukmo 12z predictions from the 22nd of November.

ecm.. gem..

gfs.. ukmo..

Yet again the ECM is closest with its prediction,followed by the GEM and then GFS.

The UKMO takes the wooden spoon again with the high pressure to our immediate

North-West way to strong.

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

The first day of winter has arrived and its been a cold one,even with some snow

in places,so lets see what the models predicted.

Going to start including the JMA model in these checks.

Today's chart.

The ecm,gem,gfs,jma and ukmo 12z runs from 6 days ago.

ecm.. gem..

gfs..

jma.. ukmo..

The ECM comes out on top once again,closely followed by the JMA and then the GEM.

The GFS and especially the UKMO led us up the garden path with their projections

which led to much gnashing of teeth in the MOD thread!

Edited by Cloud 10
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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast

As i've been saying for countless weeks now, the UKMO is a dire model that gets it so wrong it's unbelievable, no wonder met office forecasters get egg on their faces.

Wonder if we will get another Hurricane fiasco again :p

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Today's chart..

The 12z runs from ecm,gem,gfs,jma and ukmo from the 4th of December.

ecm.. gem..

gfs.. jma..

ukmo..

None of the models really nailed this one,the jma seems closest regarding the flow over the UK, followed by the gem and gfs

Quite a rare slip-up from the ecm this time,and gets the wooden spoon award along with

the ukmo.

  • Like 1
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