Winter Forecast - 2011/2012

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Because it's based on science, rather than wishful thinking?

And there we have it, science isn't infallible....a trifle condescending too? There have been some decent efforts around so they're all wishful thinking....hmmm

If one reads the LRFs again it would seem that Feb is falling more in line with RJS

BFTP

Edited February 15, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[johnholmes]

Indeed John, I'm clearly not disputing that GP's forecast is about the best, but its going very wrong now and Jan isn't synoptically as forecast? Why?...and why has the warming in the stratos NOT provided the blocking anticipated. Reasonable non confrontational questions...even the best has / is failing /breaking down. Let's see if these can be answered over time

BFTP

so he gets Dec and Jan correct, the first 10 days of February correct, leaving, unless my maths is dodgier than I thought, about 19 to go which may well be wrong and its a wrong forecast!

A touch more dificult maths, 71 days correct out of 91 makes about 79% correct and its judged as not good enough forecast-oh well you live and learn.

I feel quite chuffed if I can regularly get about 70% correct in a forecast out to day 20 let alone day 91!

[TEITS]

After my post last night I feel its rather sad reading of the comments. I have no doubts GPs forecast has been the most accurate but I do feel a general lack of respect for other members forecasts. I see John didn't have the decency to apologise for his comments which were aimed towards me in the model discussion thread despite the model output proving me correct.

I don't seek praise or recognition for any of my predictions but I do ask to be treated with a little more respect.

Rant over and thats my last word on this subject as I don't want the mods thinking im causing problems here. However my comments needed to be said.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

so he gets Dec and Jan correct, the first 10 days of February correct, leaving, unless my maths is dodgier than I thought, about 19 to go which may well be wrong and its a wrong forecast!

A touch more dificult maths, 71 days correct out of 91 makes about 79% correct and its judged as not good enough forecast-oh well you live and learn.

I feel quite chuffed if I can regularly get about 70% correct in a forecast out to day 20 let alone day 91!

Look at post 140 by GP, the air pressure anomaly and temp between forecast and observed are different. So how is that correct? On that individual post January is not anywhere near as being right or spot on. Sorry, a very good forecast thus far with good overall rhythm is my verdict thus far.

BFTP

Edited February 15, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[johnholmes]

I am not getting involved any further, folk can see who wrote what and how I marked it including your own post months back and how I marked it.

Time to move on in my view.

[BlueHedgehog074]

Feel like I've learnt a bit of a lesson from all of this - not to take forecasts from those who seem to over-hype them a bit (such as James Madden), too seriously.

Back in October and November I saw how the forecaster mentioned there being widespread snowfalls and cold weather for November, December, January and February. At first (and because of hopecasting-wise), I thought it was going to be right. But when I saw that November was not quite panning the way he predicted, I was beginning to lose a bit of faith with his forecasts. I then thought I would see how Dcember pans out before making any conclusions. Although there had been some snowy weather for North-Western areas for the first part of the month, I still feel it wasn't going the way he predicted.

While this was happening, I remember reading some great posts from Glacier Point who, if I rememebred correctly, expected the blocking to the East during November to be hard to shift. This, off course, seemed to be the case, and then he predicted the CET in December to be around average, which also seemed to happen, although perhaps the cool/cold spell in early December was probably under-estimated just a slight.

Though it's true Glacier Point may have got one or two elements wrong with his forecast, I think compared to some other Winter forecasts I have read from the net, I would say he has been pretty accurate so far. I know it wouldn't be the end of the world he had got his forecasts wrong as you can learn from errors anyway. But one particular reason I now take his forecasts more seriously (and I wish I did in the first place, although amazingly I took much notice of his Summer forecast last year) is thanks to his informed reasonings as to why the weather and pressure systems behave the way they would - although I admit, sometimes, I find his post a tad too technical (but I think this is due to my lack of understanding, and the way I process information).

I suppose, to be fair, I think it would obviously be impossible for a Long-Range forecaster to get the weather 100% correct. Even within 24 hours, for example, a Low Pressure system could end up tracking 20 miles further South than what was modelled/predicted.

[Dorsetbred]

Does this still need to be "pinned" or can it now die a slow death as it descends the threads, given we are past the season and all discussion has now ceased for well over a month?

Edited April 5, 2012 by Dorsetbred