Winter Forecast - 2011/2012

[I remember Atlantic 252]

No I think he is right, the sun has gained a fair bit of strengh especialy by the second half of febuary and can get to work on any laying snow faster however ground temperatures do tend to be lower then which often helps.

Got to remember shortest day is around 21/22 of december so november would have similar solar strengh to january?

not just the strength but the height of the sun as well, meaning it shines on more surfaces, thawing more snow, November similar height to January, 26th Nov, the sun should be the same height as 16th January

hope forecast is right, and hope winter starts where it finished last year, on 10th January

Edited November 26, 2011 by snow? norfolk n chance

[Nights King]

If the temperature and ground are cold enough you'll actually be surprised how little effect the sun will have.

Another factor: If the snow is deep enough, it will actually reflect the sun.

And I am anticipating a freezing February as per my forecast.

I like your unflinching optimism BK but I am almost slightly nervous of this winter being a complete mild damp squib.

[itsnowjoke]

I like your unflinching optimism BK but I am almost slightly nervous of this winter being a complete mild damp squib.

me too

[leicsnow]

Wait, if we are comparing the day lengths for probablility of seasonal cold spells, then october is the same as february, and february is almost always colder than october. In fact, february 2011 was the first snowless february for many in the UK whilst most cities have almost never experienced snow in october.

With the exception of last winter, most snow arrives where I live in February rather than November to January.

Edited November 26, 2011 by torrch

[itsnowjoke]

we have not had much of a summer to shout about and i was rather looking forward to a repeat of last winter.

[Backtrack]

I like your unflinching optimism BK but I am almost slightly nervous of this winter being a complete mild damp squib.

I'm not phased by a mild December.

I've anticipated that too, my forecast paints the picture nicely, and it was issued in October

It's good to see that GP is also anticipating a cold Feb, but I am going for a colder than average January, I think the pattern change will come in just before the new year.

[itsnowjoke]

i have recently had my stop tap moved from outside to inside as last winter it froze causing us to have a bust on the 26th dec, so you cant make it up really can you, maybe i should of just left it outside and then we would of had a severe winter.

[Robbie Garrett]

Considering the pattern at the moment, September - December will come above average. January - April will either be average or below average. If it keeps that trend, Summer could be great for once.

[Summer Sun]

For example i'm pretty sure 21st Jan has more daylight than 21st Nov yet both days are an equal length from the shortest day of the year.

This is for London

21 Nov 2011 - 07:28 - 16:04 - 8h 36m 17s

21 Jan 2012 - 07:54 - 16:30 - 8h 35m 22s

21 Feb 2012 - 07:04 - 17:25 - 10h 21m 31s

And for me in the North East it is like this

21 Nov 2011 - 07:46 - 15:55 - 8h 09m 31s

21 Jan 2012 - 08:12 - 16:21 - 8h 08m 28s

21 Feb 2012 - 07:14 - 17:24 - 10h 09m 12s

[January Snowstorm]

So what that tells us so Gavin D is that the mornings are darker in Jan and the evening brighter, than similar dates in Nov

[Gavin P]

One thing if February is a cold month the snow doesn't tend to last long with the day's becoming longer I remember back in 2009 overnight snow fall was all gone by mid day thanks to the sun been higher than it is in November and December.

February can be outrageously cold - Colder than anything possible in December. Coldest December CET on record is -.0.8, coldest February on CET record is -1.9 Its just that we've not had much deep cold in February for a long, long time, so people have tended to become blase about what February can be like.

Edited November 26, 2011 by Gavin P

[leicsnow]

February can be outrageously cold - Colder than anything possible in December. Coldest December CET on record is -.0.8, coldest February on CET record is -1.9 Its just that we've not had much deep cold in February for a long, long time, so people have tended to become blase about what February can be like.

Agree dude, in fact last winter for many was the first snowless February for years. But it was also the first 'snowfull' November for time as well.

Edited November 26, 2011 by torrch

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think thats more a function of the fact we've not seen one cold shot in Feb that even comes close to what we had for example in Jan 10 or in Dec 10, if we could get proper sustained cold in that month I'd suspect that places would still pretty easily hold the snowcover away from maybe the coastal strip, for example Feb 47 saw a good many places away form the coast hold the snowcover the whole month.

I think this is right on the mark. For example, the easterly spell at the end of February 2005 brought very marginal temperatures, the northerlies in February 2009 weren't sourced from very far north, and February 2010 was characterised by frequent wet snowfalls and marginal temperatures. Even so, some parts of lowland Britain were snow-covered for about a fortnight during February 2009.

The easterly outbreak in February 1991 was pretty exceptional, but lasting snow cover was also pretty widespread during the easterly spells in mid to late February 1994, and from the north-easterly incursion on the 19th-21st February 1996. During the northerly outbreak of the 7th-10th February 1999, the areas that got just a dusting of snow had it melt quickly in the sun, but those with bigger snowfalls had a more significant period of snow cover, e.g. 7 days at Lowestoft.

Btw re. some earlier posts, daytime maxima of 4-5C would tend to do a lot of damage to a snow cover regardless of whether the month was December or February. If the dew point creeps above freezing, an established snow cover will often melt more quickly than it will in the same temperatures with bright sunshine but dewpoints well below zero. The main issue as we head towards March is that unless we get a potent cold blast, the stronger sun will often lift the temperature to 4-5C, but on the other hand, in December marginality more often translates to sleet rather than snow, particularly around the coasts.

[mcweather]

An excellent presentation of the winter forecast by Stewart. Unlike so many of the other internet forecasters Stewart actually shows the genuine scientific reasoning behind his forecast. Naturally as a cold and snow lover I hope the cold kicks in a little bit earlier than suggested but would happily take the forecast coming off as it stands. The fact that Stewart also expects the south to be wetter than average this winter suggests to me that that is where a good proportion of any snow that we get may fall. Well done GP great job.

[North-Easterly Blast]

Without straying off topic I think you will find November is a much darker month than January let alone Feb

Not sure why but you wont ever leave work during Nov with any daylight yet by the end of Jan it's bright up to 6pm.

For example i'm pretty sure 21st Jan has more daylight than 21st Nov ye both days are an equal length from the shortest day f the year.

The reason is this; it is not the darkest in a morning and an afternoon at the same time. The earliest sunsets occur before the Winter Solstice (Shortest Day). The latest sunrises occur after the Winter Solstice (Shortest Day). If you look carefully you will always find that it is darkest in an afternoon before Xmas, from late November and then for most of December. After the Shortest Day, it only starts to get a bit lighter in an afternoon, and then it is darkest in a morning in late December and early to mid January - so although you will notice a bit more daylight in an afternoon from the shortest day onwards, you will notice persistently dark mornings for another three to four weeks after.

[UV-RAY]

Well I for one I'm hoping it will stay well below average from February through too August, and with solar activity now on the decline again who would bet against it.

Edited November 26, 2011 by Seven of Nine

[blitzen]

Well done guys! Very well presented forecast and very easy to understand! Hope it all goes according to plan.

[leicsnow]

I think this is right on the mark. For example, the easterly spell at the end of February 2005 brought very marginal temperatures, the northerlies in February 2009 weren't sourced from very far north, and February 2010 was characterised by frequent wet snowfalls and marginal temperatures. Even so, some parts of lowland Britain were snow-covered for about a fortnight during February 2009.

The easterly outbreak in February 1991 was pretty exceptional, but lasting snow cover was also pretty widespread during the easterly spells in mid to late February 1994, and from the north-easterly incursion on the 19th-21st February 1996. During the northerly outbreak of the 7th-10th February 1999, the areas that got just a dusting of snow had it melt quickly in the sun, but those with bigger snowfalls had a more significant period of snow cover, e.g. 7 days at Lowestoft.

Btw re. some earlier posts, daytime maxima of 4-5C would tend to do a lot of damage to a snow cover regardless of whether the month was December or February. If the dew point creeps above freezing, an established snow cover will often melt more quickly than it will in the same temperatures with bright sunshine but dewpoints well below zero. The main issue as we head towards March is that unless we get a potent cold blast, the stronger sun will often lift the temperature to 4-5C, but on the other hand, in December marginality more often translates to sleet rather than snow, particularly around the coasts.

I second the bit about the high dew point making snow melt more quickly.

It can often snow at 3C with a low dewpoint below freezing with low humidity levels. It can also potentially rain at -1C with humidity close to 100% and a high dew point. E.g. it is snowing at 3C with 70% humidity...humidity rises to 80% and the dew point is also now higher, it's now sleeting...humidity rises to 90%, the dew point has risen and rain is falling.

[mardatha]

I'm trotally lost. All the forecasters are saying different things and you dono who to believe. I think we jsut have to get up in the morning and see what happens!

[Backtrack]

Okay, so am I right in thinking that video was just the summary and the full forecast will be released later on today?

[Staffordshire]

Let's be honest the summer forecast wasn't the greatest eh? So what's to say this is going to be accurate... Don't take it as an Oman friends.

[Dorsetbred]

Okay, so am I right in thinking that video was just the summary and the full forecast will be released later on today?

I thought that the 40page addition that Paul has done goes to add to the original video was it, as it explains a lot more on the background of how it was derived.

Could be wrong

[Backtrack]

He goes into more detail about this in the full video which I've literally just finished editing and will have online tomorrow

I thought that the 40page addition that Paul has done goes to add to the original video was it, as it explains a lot more on the background of how it was derived.

Could be wrong

I assumed it was going to be a video?

[Paul]

There are additional videos on the way later today hopefully - they're just taking a bit of processing and uploading so will be later this evening.

[Don]

I would love to see a cold February... With the exception of 2005 (the year of 16 days snowfall and no more than 1 inch lying), the last time decent snow fell in Feb in the south east is 1991!

What about 2nd February 2009?! Most parts of the south east got an absolute pasting. If that wasn't decent snow, then I don't know what is!

Edited November 26, 2011 by Don