Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2011/2012

[summer blizzard]

Very good to see.

If it is a Canadian warming then i believe that would indicate a trough over Scandinavia rather than high pressure, so a probable warming.

If it is not massively potent then i can see the UK having high pressure sat right on top.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

At last something to monitor.

The warm patch is there on the GFS forecast at 30 hPa as well.

Right, game on!

Hi C

What sort of timing is this? If it comes of would it be late Nov by any chance?

BFTP

[summer blizzard]

Hi C

What sort of timing is this? If it comes of would it be late Nov by any chance?

BFTP

It's at day 10 (but issued on the 8th so 9 days out now).

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recmnh2401.gif

I suspect from that chart that ECWMF will have the warming at days nine and ten.

I'm not too sure but i do believe that there is usually a lag before the AO responds significantly.

[ZONE 51]

I have found an excellent study on stratosphere warming, its in PDF format and have attached it below, looks very exciting and only had a brief look, and will be readiing it all, i would like to learn much more on this subject!

Stratospheric Warmings: Observations and Theory.pdf - Stratospheric Warmings/Observations and Theory

[chionomaniac]

I think it is far too early to speculate whether any stratospheric forecast FI warming is going to affect us tropospherically. The warming is still showing on the ECM this morning but is less pronounced - but that is not unusual in the forecasts. It may be just enough to drag the temperature up to average. A forecast warming is better than no forecast warming but it should be treated with plenty of caution at this point.

[karyo]

I'd say that a warming has to start showing here http://wekuw.met.fu-...ww/wdiag/ts.php before we start getting excited.

Karyo

Edited November 10, 2011 by karyo

[chionomaniac]

I'd say that a warming has to start showing here http://wekuw.met.fu-...ww/wdiag/ts.php before we start getting excited.

Karyo

Yes there have been a number of false alarms in the past!

[johnholmes]

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html

maybe its trying!

[chionomaniac]

A couple of things today worth mentioning.

Firstly the warming forecast at the 30 hPa looks to be very minor indeed and unable to break into the vortex:

However, coincidentally the lower stratosphere has been showing signs of splitting at the same time and this has now extended up to the 70 hPa level. It is splits like this that have led to the cold outbreaks that we have witnessed in the last few years, so it should not be ignored.

The GFS has been hinting at this as well.

The question remains how this split can affect surface based systems on the tropospheric level. The orientation and formation of the forecast ECM split certainly is giving an opposing signal to the current Scandinavian high and retrogression would be favoured if the stratospheric charts are to be believed. Though this looks like going against current troposopheric signals. The longer that this stratospheric pattern is delayed and the closer that this occurs to December, the bettter chance I think of retrogressing occurring.

One to watch .

[knocker]

Ubless I'm misreading this ozone recovery seems quite quite good considering the low levels earlier and even in comparison with last year.

Edited November 11, 2011 by weather ship

[UV-RAY]

Ubless I'm misreading this ozone recovery seems quite quite good considering the low levels earlier and even in comparison with last year.

Ubless I'm misreading this ozone recovery seems quite quite good considering the low levels earlier and even in comparison with last year.

Interesting times ahead, maybe. Goes to show how quickly the upstream signals can change, hopefully!

[chionomaniac]

Ubless I'm misreading this ozone recovery seems quite quite good considering the low levels earlier and even in comparison with last year.

Yes and look where the ozone levels are highest. No surprise there then - it matches the warming. I would like to see then ozone levels increase in the heart of the vortex, but this is promising nonetheless as the suggestion is that to get to these levels the BDC is enhanced.

Just to add to the confusion and conflicting signals the GFS 100hPa charts do not suggest splitting of the vortex but the weak warming at 30 hPa is still forecast.

[sebastiaan1973]

The ozone levels in 2009

Edited November 11, 2011 by sebastiaan1973

[knocker]

Yes and look where the ozone levels are highest. No surprise there then - it matches the warming. I would like to see then ozone levels increase in the heart of the vortex, but this is promising nonetheless as the suggestion is that to get to these levels the BDC is enhanced.

That had crossed my mind chiono but was awaiting your more informed opinion.

[summer blizzard]

Chino, i suspect that looking at the charts below even a minor warming early season can have a much bigger effect on the AO, perhaps through indirect splits though.

If we look at 2005 and 2010, both saw relatively minor warnings but December AO values below -2.

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/t90n_30_2005_merra.pdf

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/t90n_30_2010_merra.pdf

When you say minor, would you say that it would be comparable to what we see in the charts above?

[chionomaniac]

Chino, i suspect that looking at the charts below even a minor warming early season can have a much bigger effect on the AO, perhaps through indirect splits though.

If we look at 2005 and 2010, both saw relatively minor warnings but December AO values below -2.

http://acdb-ext.gsfc..._2005_merra.pdf

http://acdb-ext.gsfc..._2010_merra.pdf

When you say minor, would you say that it would be comparable to what we see in the charts above?

I think it is too early to say presently. The forecast warming is not even programmed to affect as far north as 60N yet. I would be looking at the warming in conjunction with the mean zonal mean winds as well.

[johnholmes]

Chino, i suspect that looking at the charts below even a minor warming early season can have a much bigger effect on the AO, perhaps through indirect splits though.

If we look at 2005 and 2010, both saw relatively minor warnings but December AO values below -2.

http://acdb-ext.gsfc..._2005_merra.pdf

http://acdb-ext.gsfc..._2010_merra.pdf

When you say minor, would you say that it would be comparable to what we see in the charts above?

I have no science to back that comment up but tend to believe there is something in any relatively marked increase to even 5-10 degrees above the average, in the late autumn, does seem to be followed in the western European area and further east as well with a cold spell?

[knocker]

Talking of ozone I don't know if anyone missed this.

Canadian ozone network faces axe

Arctic monitoring stations hit by budget constraints.

A key source of information about the health of the ozone layer above the Arctic looks set to be choked off.

In a year that saw the first genuine 'ozone hole' appear in the Northern Hemisphere, atmospheric scientists say they are shocked to learn that Environment Canada, the country's environment agency, has decided to drastically reduce its ozone science and monitoring programme.

http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110913/full/477257a.html

[karyo]

Still nothing promising on the Berlin site: http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ts.php

Stratospheric temperatures continuing colder than average.

Karyo

[Mark Bayley]

A couple of things today worth mentioning.

Firstly the warming forecast at the 30 hPa looks to be very minor indeed and unable to break into the vortex:

However, coincidentally the lower stratosphere has been showing signs of splitting at the same time and this has now extended up to the 70 hPa level. It is splits like this that have led to the cold outbreaks that we have witnessed in the last few years, so it should not be ignored.

<SNIP>

Am i right in thinking that we want to see the splitting on the above chart (70hp from the lower stratosphere) start to show up on the 30hpa charts, and the reason that no warming is showing up on the charts Kayro posted is because the minor warming, which is (is?) causing the splitting on the 70hpa chart, occurred higher up?

[chionomaniac]

Am i right in thinking that we want to see the splitting on the above chart (70hp from the lower stratosphere) start to show up on the 30hpa charts, and the reason that no warming is showing up on the charts Kayro posted is because the minor warming, which is (is?) causing the splitting on the 70hpa chart, occurred higher up?

The forecasts are flirting with the idea of what appears to be a tropospheric led split at the extremes of FI. However,that is all. The minor warming forecast at 30 hPa is most definitely on the lower end of the minor scale! The warming appears to have no influence on any split of the vortex which could possibly occur. So still quiet on the stratospheric front.

On a positive not stratospheric ozone forecasts still on an upward trend.

Another view here:

[Frozen Britain]

What level within the stratosphere do we want to see a warming initiate? The 100hpa is looking good as does the 70hpa - then when you move further up the warming dissipates to nothing. Why is the warming unable to move further up the stratosphere? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t100_nh_f48.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t100_nh_f96.gif

Edited November 13, 2011 by kilmannan27

[mountain shadow]

All levels is probably the answer, but certainly if we can get it down to the 500hpa level over Greenland we would be happy.

[chionomaniac]

What level within the stratosphere do we want to see a warming initiate? The 100hpa is looking good as does the 70hpa - then when you move further up the warming dissipates to nothing. Why is the warming unable to move further up the stratosphere? http://www.cpc.ncep....t100_nh_f48.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep....t100_nh_f96.gif

Ideally we would like to see the middle stratosphere (10-30 Hpa) affected the most. Any wave breaking into the stratosphere from the tropsosphere needs to be strong enough to carry up to the top before rebounding back down centrally. So unless the wave break is strong enough we will only see lower disturbances. These in the last few years have been enough to disrupt the lower stratosphere sufficiently as the mid strat was less cold as it is now.

[A Winter's Tale]

Can someone clarify what the effect conditions in the Stratosphere have on our winter weather and how it's looking at the moment.

Thanks.