The Winter 2011/12 Forecast Thread

[SnowObsessor90]

The next few winters including this one will turn out to be mild with next to no snow.

See I can do exactly what he does and the ironic thing is I'm more likely to be right lol.

Edited December 19, 2011 by Anonymous21

[Backtrack]

Must say I am very happy with the way my forecast has turned out to be.

It's been bang on so far, only the CET has been out.

[Partholon]

Well that's my December forecast and White Xmas thrown out the window.

However, RJS is so far having a great forecast!

As I said earlier, right up till the 15th December he was spot on. Then, his forecast got even better with the promised cold spell between the 15th and 22nd happening with many areas seeing their first snow of the winter with some distruption. He expected snow on the ground before Christmas which has happened (3cm out there right now). And he also expected it to get milder at Christmas which looks set to be correct. And at the moment, developments in the Stratosphere is looking favourable too for his forecast. The models after Christmas Eve will change a lot so at the moment I expect the events correctly predicted to happen (by the models) for beyond Xmas is unlikely to be accurate.

So all in all, RJS's December forecast looks set to be spot on. Let's hope that January and February are accurate too (except that little bit better).

His lrf forecast for December 2010 was spot on too. Unfortunately there after his forecast was not very accurate. I really hope it doesn't turn out to be the same this year. An important thing to remember is his forecast for January seemingly hinges on a strat' warming occurring. The experts over in the Stratospheric warming thread have cautioned that despite promising signs one may not take place at all. It'll be really disappointing if we don't get out of this current dreadful pattern to something far better, as it would indicate solar activity has increased enough to bring our weather back to normal.

[SnowObsessor90]

Must say I am very happy with the way my forecast has turned out to be.

It's been bang on so far, only the CET has been out.

Still confident about how things will pan out post new year period?

Please say yes as all my current hopes remaining for this winter hinge on that or something similar like GP's forecast coming to fruition.

[mountain shadow]

Must say I am very happy with the way my forecast has turned out to be.

It's been bang on so far, only the CET has been out.

How can it be bang on when you've been out on something?

[TEITS]

And yet he still claims to have forecast it correctly lol , if he came out and admitted that things haven't exactly according to plan for December like Piers for example with the cold arriving later than he initially expected at some point next month(something that neither he or us can really be sure of one way or another) then I would be able to at least gain a tiny little bit more respect for him but no typically he decides to gloss over all that.

You know its funny but I really hope Xmas does turn out to be very mild and at the end of the month the CET is above average. Still despite this I get the feeling he will claim his forecast is correct. The thing is what we have experienced this month is fairly typical. For example if I made a forecast for Dec and predicted "shorlived cold snaps with snow especially on high ground alternating with milder, unsettled spells" I would have a fair chance of being correct. A forecast of exceptionally cold, heavy snowfalls is more appropiate for Dec 2010.

What I have learn't since following the weather on the internet is you either get forecasts that are biased towards cold or mild or sensationalist headlines. The only forecasts I have known without any agenda is those from the Met O and I would also include GPs forecast.

I remember when I first joined this forum I was dreadfully biased towards cold and as a result my forecasts were more wishful thinking. I also refused to accept when I was wrong which used to irritate many members, which now I perfectly understand. So these days I don't post forecasts because I am biased towards cold weather but also my knowledge of Meteorology isn't sufficient to make an accurate forecast.

[johnholmes]

Must say I am very happy with the way my forecast has turned out to be.

It's been bang on so far, only the CET has been out.

this is your actual forecast b?

December:

The first third of December will be dominated by a North Westerly flow, bringing Western Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and Western England their first snows of the season. The cold spell will not be anything remarkable with temperatures still managing to climb to 2-5C during the day, any lying snow is likely to be short lived, with hail showers becoming a very dominant feature for Western areas during the period.

The second third is likely to me average with little snow away from the highlands. Rainfall and sunshine amounts are looking around average, rainfall slightly above.

The Christmas period is a great day to feel the full effects of Winter as Santa makes his way down your chimney to make many boys and girls happy. Unfortunately santa may melt in England, as there is likely to be no snow away from the hills. For Northern Scotland, a white Christmas is looking likely with snow actually falling on the day!

The last 5-6 days may see the return of Northerly winds but confidence in this stage is very low. A North Easterly lasting 4-5 days seems the most likely scenario at this stage with snow showers for Eastern areas in particular.

CET - 5.4C

[Rollo]

Hi BFTP I posted a very similar thing today on Maddens web site and I would bet a pound to a penny it is not shown, I must admit I do not see how he will wriggle out of his Christmas prediction. He mut be living in cloud cuckoo land to come out with that latest forecast.

[syed2878]

i must say rjs got dec bang on so far. I think his second half of dec is gona come off.though i haven't seen snow in my location many parts of the midlands got snow. I hope jan and feb gives us snow though i cant c how with the current setup.

[syed2878]

i have never herd so much trash as i have from james madden. Mark vogan i haven't a clue where he got his forecast from. Listening to philip edan just over an hour ago he say's no white christmas any where in the u.k

[TEITS]

I've quickly put together my own youtube video of why we won't have a white xmas.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0ZMpYUWUzw

[Methuselah]

IMO, the most 'convincing' forecasts are the ones that read like a horoscope: a bit of everything for everyone. And, always easy to retrofit...

[leicsnow]

Latest video from Mark Vogan saying he's sticking to his original forecast;

He believes all the factors are in place for January to come off as cold with -16 to -20 temperatures! Sounds hard to believe but you never know...

Edited December 20, 2011 by Tellow

[bluearmy]

why no explanation of his december forecast bust ????

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

A complete lack of blocking so far this winter...I wonder if he is a coldie?

[Andy_]

A complete lack of blocking so far this winter...I wonder if he is a coldie?

I'm surprised he's not on Netweather, it would be easier than posting a 7 minute video every time he wants to explain something

I personally think he's going along the same lines as everyone else anyways, NAO to go negative once the Stratosphere warms causing blocking... pretty simple stuff.

[johnholmes]

, NAO to go negative once the Stratosphere warms causing blocking... pretty simple stuff.

I assume you are taking the ----?

pretty simple stuff you say - ummm

[Andy_]

I assume you are taking the ----?

pretty simple stuff you say - ummm

LMAO well not literally simple... I've heard it so many times now it just seems rather obvious that to get anywhere we need to see a warming of the stratosphere, which in turn will aid northern blocking. It obviously takes more than that, but in his video that's all he mentions, he doesn't say how and when the strat will warm, and how the warming will propagate down to lower levels, and neither do i know that.

That's for Chiono to explain on his thread

He says that he has a large understanding of weather so it would be nice to see him on Netweather to share it with us, instead of having to dumb down what he is saying to fit a wider public audience on YouTube.

It's fair play to him as i agree to most of what he is saying, he is no James Madden, he is backing up what he is saying with actual forecasting method.

Edited December 20, 2011 by Andy163

[bluearmy]

LMAO well not literally simple... I've heard it so many times now it just seems rather obvious that to get anywhere we need to see a warming of the stratosphere, which in turn will aid northern blocking. It obviously takes more than that, but in his video that's all he mentions, he doesn't say how and when the strat will warm, and how the warming will propagate down to lower levels, and neither do i know that.

That's for Chiono to explain on his thread

He says that he has a large understanding of weather so it would be nice to see him on Netweather to share it with us, instead of having to dumb down what he is saying to fit a wider public audience on YouTube.

It's fair play to him as i agree to most of what he is saying, he is no James Madden, he is backing up what he is saying with actual forecasting method.

he has been saying that the NAO would go negative mid december. when it didnt, he omitted to explain other than to say the cold was still coming. he even made a comment that a white xmas was possible on his facebook page yesterday ??? now he says a neg NAO is coming courtesy of a strat warming. where was the neg NAO going to come from mid dec - too early for a warming of the strat. he seems to think that a strat warming means a greenland high. i'm afraid to tell you it doesnt. it might but it doesn't follow that b comes after a. nice fella but not a forecaster.

[Andy_]

he has been saying that the NAO would go negative mid december. when it didnt, he omitted to explain other than to say the cold was still coming. he even made a comment that a white xmas was possible on his facebook page yesterday ??? now he says a neg NAO is coming courtesy of a strat warming. where was the neg NAO going to come from mid dec - too early for a warming of the strat. he seems to think that a strat warming means a greenland high. i'm afraid to tell you it doesnt. it might but it doesn't follow that b comes after a. nice fella but not a forecaster.

I wasn't aware of that lol, i've only just started taking notice of him, although i do remember him talking about all change from 15th Dec. I suppose part of trying to long range forecast is trial and error, maybe he just needs a reality check in the form of the mob of Netweather

[phil nw.]

I've quickly put together my own youtube video of why we won't have a white xmas.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0ZMpYUWUzw

Nicely done Dave.

Clear and straightforward so any person off the street can understand.

Give us a smile to the camera next time! :smiliz64: .

[DAVID SNOW]

Nicely done Dave.

Clear and straightforward so any person off the street can understand.

Give us a smile to the camera next time! :smiliz64: .

With a Rothmans or B+h..................

[leicsnow]

he has been saying that the NAO would go negative mid december. when it didnt, he omitted to explain other than to say the cold was still coming. he even made a comment that a white xmas was possible on his facebook page yesterday ??? now he says a neg NAO is coming courtesy of a strat warming. where was the neg NAO going to come from mid dec - too early for a warming of the strat. he seems to think that a strat warming means a greenland high. i'm afraid to tell you it doesnt. it might but it doesn't follow that b comes after a. nice fella but not a forecaster.

Don't remember him directly saying the NAO would go negative mid December, and he said that we would see the first signs of snowfall further South during 15th to 20th December (which did happen), and the core of the cold at some point between Christmas and mid-January.

[bluearmy]

Don't remember him directly saying the NAO would go negative mid December, and he said that we would see the first signs of snowfall further South during 15th to 20th December (which did happen), and the core of the cold at some point between Christmas and mid-January.

you remember what you want - i made the mistake of sitting through his youtube forecasts so i know what he said. i suggest you have a look at what he posted on youtube back end november and again early december. he probably uses the phrase 'negative arctic oscillation' more times than any other yet it seems to have passed you by. hey ho. each to their own. reckon it'll still be a white xmas ?

[leicsnow]

you remember what you want - i made the mistake of sitting through his youtube forecasts so i know what he said. i suggest you have a look at what he posted on youtube back end november and again early december. he probably uses the phrase 'negative arctic oscillation' more times than any other yet it seems to have passed you by. hey ho. each to their own. reckon it'll still be a white xmas ?

Maybe because he used the phrase 'Negative Arctic Oscillation' so frequently, I got confused and forgot when he was referring to? However, you can't argue that he wasn't right about the snowfall pattern starting to become more widespread 15-20 December, as many Southern areas saw their first snow of the season on Friday. Plus, I didn't argue about his 'White Xmas' possibilities as I myself find that a little strange, so please don't try to make out that I was backing up that statement.

Edited December 20, 2011 by Tellow