The Winter 2011/12 Forecast Thread

[A Winter's Tale]

Seeing as we are only the 12th, could we maybe wait until declaring the prediction of coldest part of the month as being between the 15th and 20th as correct...?

Otherwise, yes, there has been heavy rain, brief intervals of hails and snow, some lying snow, strong winds from deep lows and a roller coaster of mild and cold spells. I think it's called "an average British december".. :winky:

An average British December. Well if this average, then I wonder what better than average is like as we've had many days of snow up here in Scotland aswell as 5-10cm accumilations, some distruption and of course the worst wind since 1998. However, for some of you further south, perhaps it's below average snowfall wise?

[AWD]

An average British December. Well if this average, then I wonder what better than average is like as we've had many days of snow up here in Scotland aswell as 5-10cm accumilations, some distruption and of course the worst wind since 1998. However, for some of you further south,

perhaps it's below average snowfall wise?

I got to admit, I would love to be in Scotland right now! I believe snow has fallen on higher ground everyday this winter so far, and looks like it will do for the next week or so at least!

With all the signals in the wrong place, the amount of snow higher ground up north has had has been pretty darn good I say!

[Coast]

Well exciting and notable weather again this week and if you look back through the last 6 weeks I guess you would have said very mild generally, into a snowy start to December in Scotland and the far NE then wild and windy in Scotland and the NW into Atlantic lows with South coast gales.

Only a couple of the milestones along the way, but that's the stating point I'll be looking for in forecasts. Ever onwards!

[cooling climate]

December update to my winter forcast and I am sticking to my

original forcast with the coldest of this seasons winter weather

falling between mid January and mid March where it is quite

possible we could see some severe winter weather in terms of

cold and snow. My winter forcast has always been about the

Stratosphere and when that would become more conducive

for blocking to take hold and also where I think the main areas

of vortexes will be.

I still think our real winter cold will come from the east and north

east rather than north and that a big northern hemisphere

pattern changer could be in the making around the first week of

January due to the ECM stratosphere warming forcast to start

taking place in around eight days or so and then allowing 10 to

15 days for it to propagate downwards hopefully.

[Jason T]

update from mr madden.

Sunday 18th December 2011

White Christmas 2011 and Widespread Snow

After the first significant falls of snow across many parts of the UK this week as forecast (including the south), I am expecting these conditions to become more prominent as we head into next week, and in the run up to and during the festive period.

Over the next 10 days, widespread snowfall will start to become a prominent feature across many parts of the UK including the south. The snow will be particularly heavy at times and lead to lasting accumulations at many lower levels too, especially more so in the regions of Scotland, northern England, and eastern England.

As I stated in my 4^th December update

I am expecting things to significantly change to a more prolonged period of much colder weather with widespread snowfall across many parts of the UK and Ireland, as we head into the latter part of next week and in the run up to and during the festive period. The temperatures in Scotland and many Northern regions are likely to dip below negative double figures at times within this period in the evenings.

A white Christmas is also looking increasingly possible across many parts of the UK, especially more so in the regions of Scotland and Northern England in terms of any possible accumulations on the actual day.

The following MSN article from the 25th Novemberalso stated

What is The Big Question?

Christmas lights have been switched on all over the country; mince pies are now part of a staple diet, so the annual obsession of foraging for clues to predict the weather intensifies as people inevitably want to know will we have a white Christmas? Madden predicts we will, although heavier snowfall and low temperatures will stun the country throughout January and February.

I also made a definition of what a white Christmas officially consists of, as snow showers could literally be possible anywhere within the UK, although I have emphasised that the regions of Scotland and Northern England are the most likely to see any notable accumulations on the actual day.

All of the following statements still stand and were made before any other professional meteorologists or weather organisations, who are still being noncommittal on the outcome at this late stage, and as they will continue to do so, until a few days before.

May I take this opportunity to wish you all a Merry Christmas and thank you all for reading my forecasts and your continued support.

Don't forget to enter our free white Christmas competition to win yourself a free scientific weather station/junior weather station kit.

[Liam J]

update from mr madden.

Sunday 18th December 2011

White Christmas 2011 and Widespread Snow

After the first significant falls of snow across many parts of the UK this week as forecast (including the south), I am expecting these conditions to become more prominent as we head into next week, and in the run up to and during the festive period.

Over the next 10 days, widespread snowfall will start to become a prominent feature across many parts of the UK including the south. The snow will be particularly heavy at times and lead to lasting accumulations at many lower levels too, especially more so in the regions of Scotland, northern England, and eastern England.

As I stated in my 4^th December update

I am expecting things to significantly change to a more prolonged period of much colder weather with widespread snowfall across many parts of the UK and Ireland, as we head into the latter part of next week and in the run up to and during the festive period. The temperatures in Scotland and many Northern regions are likely to dip below negative double figures at times within this period in the evenings.

A white Christmas is also looking increasingly possible across many parts of the UK, especially more so in the regions of Scotland and Northern England in terms of any possible accumulations on the actual day.

The following MSN article from the 25th Novemberalso stated

What is The Big Question?

Christmas lights have been switched on all over the country; mince pies are now part of a staple diet, so the annual obsession of foraging for clues to predict the weather intensifies as people inevitably want to know will we have a white Christmas? Madden predicts we will, although heavier snowfall and low temperatures will stun the country throughout January and February.

I also made a definition of what a white Christmas officially consists of, as snow showers could literally be possible anywhere within the UK, although I have emphasised that the regions of Scotland and Northern England are the most likely to see any notable accumulations on the actual day.

All of the following statements still stand and were made before any other professional meteorologists or weather organisations, who are still being noncommittal on the outcome at this late stage, and as they will continue to do so, until a few days before.

May I take this opportunity to wish you all a Merry Christmas and thank you all for reading my forecasts and your continued support.

Don't forget to enter our free white Christmas competition to win yourself a free scientific weather station/junior weather station kit.

I presume he doesn't look at the model outputs, or perhaps he just can't understand them full stop?!

I have more chance of winning the lottery than that forecast coming off this week.

[Milhouse]

So that was updated today despite the models showing exactly the opposite. I'm afraid the last bit of credibility this guy had has now vanished. Why will he not face facts and accept it will be a mild Christmas. Anyone can see that so why cant he.

[A Winter's Tale]

Well that's my December forecast and White Xmas thrown out the window.

However, RJS is so far having a great forecast!

As I said earlier, right up till the 15th December he was spot on. Then, his forecast got even better with the promised cold spell between the 15th and 22nd happening with many areas seeing their first snow of the winter with some distruption. He expected snow on the ground before Christmas which has happened (3cm out there right now). And he also expected it to get milder at Christmas which looks set to be correct. And at the moment, developments in the Stratosphere is looking favourable too for his forecast. The models after Christmas Eve will change a lot so at the moment I expect the events correctly predicted to happen (by the models) for beyond Xmas is unlikely to be accurate.

So all in all, RJS's December forecast looks set to be spot on. Let's hope that January and February are accurate too (except that little bit better).

[Mark Neal.]

Beat me to it Silverline i also saw Mr Maddens forecast on Exacta-Weather Facebook page. I really don't see where he is getting it from??

Video explaining his views can be found here- White Christmas UK 2011 - Widespread Snow

@Milhouse - I think its a case of trying to get the press on his side to promote publicity, as they say any news is good news!

[leicsnow]

Mark Vogan has also said about a widespread White Christmas but at least he hasn't nailed anything unlike Madden, and has actually explained his views properly. He has also made it clear that it's just a possibility.

Edited December 18, 2011 by Tellow

[Mark Neal.]

Mark Vogan posted this on facebook earlier.. ECMWF continues to point to a cold storm for UK on Christmas Eve and now showing up on other side of the pond. I forecasted a last gasp white christmas for both us here in the UK and for the East Coast USA...

Also this aswell.. A Christmas Eve Snowstorm for both UK and East Coast US could be an interesting scenario!

I really don't know what he is going on about, anyone agree with me?

[bluearmy]

Mark Vogan posted this on facebook earlier.. ECMWF continues to point to a cold storm for UK on Christmas Eve and now showing up on other side of the pond. I forecasted a last gasp white christmas for both us here in the UK and for the East Coast USA...

Also this aswell.. A Christmas Eve Snowstorm for both UK and East Coast US could be an interesting scenario!

I really don't know what he is going on about, anyone agree with me?

i'm afraid i think he's another fruitcake. seems to be a whole wadge of them this winter.

[Liam J]

Mark Vogan posted this on facebook earlier.. ECMWF continues to point to a cold storm for UK on Christmas Eve and now showing up on other side of the pond. I forecasted a last gasp white christmas for both us here in the UK and for the East Coast USA...

Also this aswell.. A Christmas Eve Snowstorm for both UK and East Coast US could be an interesting scenario!

I really don't know what he is going on about, anyone agree with me?

What on earth is he talking about?

I think he's had one to many sherries already!

[mountain shadow]

Mark Vogan posted this on facebook earlier.. ECMWF continues to point to a cold storm for UK on Christmas Eve and now showing up on other side of the pond. I forecasted a last gasp white christmas for both us here in the UK and for the East Coast USA...

Also this aswell.. A Christmas Eve Snowstorm for both UK and East Coast US could be an interesting scenario!

I really don't know what he is going on about, anyone agree with me?

He obviously fits in the category of a "say what they want to hear" forecaster.

[leicsnow]

It really is quite odd of Mark as I usually admire his forecasts and the detail he puts in. Really hope he doesn't turn into a "say what they want to hear" forecaster.

[A Winter's Tale]

I know that Mark's latest forecast is a case of "Pigs will Fly" but with what the models are showing right now, well we've got nothing to lose so I hope he gets it right but of course it won't. So I'm going to back it even if it's Pie in the Sky. lol

[leicsnow]

I know that Mark's latest forecast is a case of "Pigs will Fly" but with what the models are showing right now, well we've got nothing to lose so I hope he gets it right but of course it won't. So I'm going to back it even if it's Pie in the Sky. lol

Hear you. He'll probably do a blog later explaining his views which should help people understand where he is coming from.

[TEITS]

Beat me to it Silverline i also saw Mr Maddens forecast on Exacta-Weather Facebook page. I really don't see where he is getting it from??

Video explaining his views can be found here- White Christmas UK 2011 - Widespread Snow

@Milhouse - I think its a case of trying to get the press on his side to promote publicity, as they say any news is good news!

Im absolutely livid with his xmas forecast and I was going to email him saying so. The reason im livid is some poor gullible soles may read his comments and waste their money at the bookies. At the moment the models are predicting a fairly mild, dry xmas day with temps slightly above average. There is nothing in the output to suggest a white xmas.

The other reason im unhappy with James Madden is what happened a few weeks ago. I posted on his guessbook saying his forecast was unlikely to be correct for Dec and we would only experience shortlived cold snaps with snow mainly affecting higher ground in the N. My post was polite and I gave reasons why I felt his forecast was wrong. My comments were not approved because it appears he only allows comments which are praising his forecast. Lets not kid ourselves some of us have done well considering the cold stratosphere, strong PV but this Dec has hardly been exceptionally cold with widespread snowfalls.

Im not saying this because im a member of Net Weather but when it comes to winter forecasts you cannot go wrong with the forecasts from GP, Met O and addtionally following the model discussion/Stratosphere thread.

Edited December 19, 2011 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[Jason T]

I do have to admit guys it would have to be some serious twist of fait and an mega upgrade for their forecast's to pull off,Stranger things have happend though.

[A Winter's Tale]

Im absolutely livid with his xmas forecast and I was going to email him saying so. The reason im livid is some poor gullible soles may read his comments and waste their money at the bookies. At the moment the models are predicting a fairly mild, dry xmas day with temps slightly above average. There is nothing in the output to suggest a white xmas.

The other reason im unhappy with James Madden is what happened a few weeks ago. I posted on his guessbook saying his forecast was unlikely to be correct for Dec and we would only experience shortlived cold snaps with snow mainly affecting higher ground in the N. My post was polite and I gave reasons why I felt his forecast was wrong. My comments were not approved because it appears he only allows comments which are praising his forecast. Lets not kid ourselves some of us have done well considering the cold stratosphere, strong PV but this Dec has hardly been exceptionally cold with widespread snowfalls.

Im not saying this because im a member of Net Weather but when it comes to winter forecasts you cannot go wrong with the forecasts from GP, Met O and addtionally following the model discussion/Stratosphere thread.

I agree with most of your comment and yes his Xmas Forecast was the worst that I've ever seen. However I've been absoluetly over the moon about this December considering how bleak the outlook was. We've had storms and floods but most importantly I've had an equal amount of snow fall days to last December and I've had 10 lying snow days (9 of which have seen decent accumilations with 2-6cm of snow on the ground). The general theme has been cool and wintry with nothing too cold but certainly never above 10c (that will change) and most days have been chilly. And the amount of lying snow days has been brilliant and has been a winter wonderland here for about 9 days. So for me, this month/winter has already proved for my location that we're not in for a repeat of those dreadful winters of the mid naughties. It's also been the 4th consecutive winter that I've seen a snow plough in the area after barely seeing since 2001. And for many further south, the first snowfalls/lying snow of the year have been recorded. So all in all, this month has been very decent for me (and for most in the NW) and fairly decent for some others. Now if this does infact prove to be the poorest month of the winter for cold and snow (considering we do get a big freeze later on) then if you were to compare it with January/February 2011, this December will win hands down.

[TEITS]

I agree with most of your comment and yes his Xmas Forecast was the worst that I've ever seen. However I've been absoluetly over the moon about this December considering how bleak the outlook was. We've had storms and floods but most importantly I've had an equal amount of snow fall days to last December and I've had 10 lying snow days (9 of which have seen decent accumilations with 2-6cm of snow on the ground). The general theme has been cool and wintry with nothing too cold but certainly never above 10c (that will change) and most days have been chilly. And the amount of lying snow days has been brilliant and has been a winter wonderland here for about 9 days. So for me, this month/winter has already proved for my location that we're not in for a repeat of those dreadful winters of the mid naughties. It's also been the 4th consecutive winter that I've seen a snow plough in the area after barely seeing since 2001. And for many further south, the first snowfalls/lying snow of the year have been recorded. So all in all, this month has been very decent for me (and for most in the NW) and fairly decent for some others. Now if this does infact prove to be the poorest month of the winter for cold and snow (considering we do get a big freeze later on) then if you were to compare it with January/February 2011, this December will win hands down.

Indeed some members have done well but then their are members like myself who haven't even seen one single snowflake fall this Dec. Also his forecast was predicting a deeply negative NAO/AO which has not been the case. Finally its looking likely that the CET for this month will be above average.

On a different note I made a comment on his youtube video but surprise, surprise, comments require approval!

[Les Penniston]

Indeed some members have done well but then their are members like myself who haven't even seen one single snowflake fall this Dec. Also his forecast was predicting a deeply negative NAO/AO which has not been the case. Finally its looking likely that the CET for this month will be above average.

On a different note I made a comment on his youtube video but surprise, surprise, comments require approval!

The same for us we have had nothing but it does depend where you live and it sounds like A Winters Tale as done well, but when you look back at what was forecasted this winter like i did back in September and October its been nothing like.

I know The Eye in the Sky posted in another discussion thread how quickly models can change out of nothing and over the years on here that has been the case, unfortunately as i mentioned before i think this January and February will be similar to what we had this year so its not looking good.

Regards

Les

[bluearmy]

what is rather more odd than these guys' forecasts is posters on here actually believing there is a chance they may be right, less than a week before xmas day. tbh, i think some of you may be in the wrong place.

[SnowObsessor90]

The other reason im unhappy with James Madden is what happened a few weeks ago. I posted on his guessbook saying his forecast was unlikely to be correct for Dec and we would only experience shortlived cold snaps with snow mainly affecting higher ground in the N. My post was polite and I gave reasons why I felt his forecast was wrong. My comments were not approved because it appears he only allows comments which are praising his forecast. Lets not kid ourselves some of us have done well considering the cold stratosphere, strong PV but this Dec has hardly been exceptionally cold with widespread snowfalls.

And yet he still claims to have forecast it correctly lol , if he came out and admitted that things haven't exactly according to plan for December like Piers for example with the cold arriving later than he initially expected at some point next month(something that neither he or us can really be sure of one way or another) then I would be able to at least gain a tiny little bit more respect for him but no typically he decides to gloss over all that.

And don't even get me started on his Xmas forecast.

Edited December 19, 2011 by Anonymous21

[Les Penniston]

And yet he still claims to have forecast it correctly lol , if he came out and admitted that things haven't exactly according to plan for December like Piers for example with the cold arriving later than he initially expected at some point next month(something that neither he or us can be sure of one way or another) then I wouldbe able to at least gain a tiny little bit more respect for him but no typically he decides to gloss over all that.

And don't even get me started on his Xmas forecast.

It does take a brave call to deliver a forecast something that i think is pure luck if you get it right and thats why i dont predict a coming winter or summer.