The Winter 2011/12 Forecast Thread

[johnholmes]

for Ian

Have you get anywhere with the job of putting all the forecasts at the front of this thread please?

[AWD]

Having just read the Winter forecast from Positive Weather Solutions, they are basically writing off any chance of prolonged cold and snow for most of the UK, the exception being upland areas in the north! If their forecast comes to fruition, then expect a mild winter!

[IanM]

for Ian

Have you get anywhere with the job of putting all the forecasts at the front of this thread please?

I started the process John, and am slowly accumulating forecasts ready to post them up. It's been a little busy workwise this week though so I've not had a chance to finish it properly.

It's on the list, honest

Ian

[johnholmes]

I started the process John, and am slowly accumulating forecasts ready to post them up. It's been a little busy workwise this week though so I've not had a chance to finish it properly.

It's on the list, honest

Ian

thanks Ian no problem

[leicsnow]

Mark Vogan has been stressing about how there was little to no warning of cold and snow around 17th-20th December 2009. I've been wondering, what were the models showing at around the 7th in 2009? Did it point to mild,like it is pointing to this year, or cold and snow like what happened, in the run up to xmas? Then we can establish whether it is likely that this year really will follow a similar trend, like Mark has said.

Edited December 7, 2011 by Tellow

[The watcher]

Mark Vogan has been stressing about how there was little to no warning of cold and snow around 17th-20th December 2009. I've been wondering, what were the models showing at around the 7th in 2009? Did it point to mild,like it is pointing to this year, or cold and snow like what happened, in the run up to xmas? Then we can establish whether it is likely that this year really will follow a similar trend, like Mark has said.

Using past patterns is not my forte, every winter is different in its own little way.

Edited December 7, 2011 by The watcher

[A Winter's Tale]

Mark Vogan has been stressing about how there was little to no warning of cold and snow around 17th-20th December 2009. I've been wondering, what were the models showing at around the 7th in 2009? Did it point to mild,like it is pointing to this year, or cold and snow like what happened, in the run up to xmas? Then we can establish whether it is likely that this year really will follow a similar trend, like Mark has said.

Listen the only cold that southern England will see will be either at Christmas at the very earliest and probably not until mid January. I do expect the Northern half of the UK to see a few more snowfalls in the 2nd half of December, particulary in the last 6 days of the month and I'm expecting this theme to continue well into the first half of January. So basically, I'm expecting cities such as Aberdeen, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Newcastle, Carlisle to have perhaps more than 10 days of snowfalls by the middle of January whereas cities such as London, Norwich, Oxford, Southampton may see nothing by then. So at the moment the north is going to benefit from this pattern but the game for snowlovers in the south is patience and it will certainly be needed come January or even the middle of January. By then things should be more favourable for more potent and perhaps longer lasting cold and snow in the most areas of the UK.

However let's say come January 15th the south hasn't seen any snow and there wasn't any sign of things to come I would be feeling a little bit concerned but really there is the rest of February and a spring left to get snow.

But for us here in the North I've been very happy with the unexpectedly good start to the winter with our snowfall totals already halfway there to equalling December 2010. I also feel that from Manchester northwards there will be quite a few more possibilities for cold and snow during December and January. However it could be even better for all of the UK if for example there is SSW or a sudden brilliant block over Greenland or an easterly out of nowhere. Anything is possible, but so far December has been pretty good here in the NW and there's still time to improve on that this month. So we've done very well in what was regarded as a period with little prospects for cold and snow and with the potential for cold and snow greater in January and February then I would imagine that we've got a lot to look forward to.

[leicsnow]

A Winter's Tale, remember I sort of fall inbetween the north and south as I'm in the Midlands...what would you say the score is for there?

[A Winter's Tale]

hmmm, difficult one. I would say that you're unfortuantly on the wrong side for cold and snow this month as really it's northerlies and nwlys but they are really confined for Cumbria northwards and maybe Manchester if you're lucky. However anything could happen and we could have something quite significant coming out of nowhere. Here in Glasgow, December is has been our best month for since December 2010 so any more snow this month will make things look better and with the 2nd half of winter more likely to be cold and snowy then it could end up being a very decent winter here.

Really I think that for the first half of winter it's the North and West are the places that will benefit from polar maritime air but even so we really would prefer to see a blocked scenario that allows for more widespread, prolonged and severe cold and snow.

My fear for those in the southern half is that by the middle of January IF nothing has happened there and there hasn't been SSW then you'd be clutching straws BIG TIME and could be facing a snowless winter. Hopefully the second half of winter will see great snow and cold for everyone but really we've got to take it month by month and this month has exceeded my expectations and hopefully there will be some more snow this month and especially around Christmas. So for a month that was expected to have the lowest potential for cold and snow, I would say I've done exceptionally well for the start of the month so I'm quite happy.

I don't really need anymore snow this month as I've reached the benchmark for a more than satisfactory month but really I want as much cold and snow as possible and a white xmas. Hopefully the January and February will deliver the goods as expected.

But really for the 1st half of the winter any snow will be confined to the north but there may be exceptions, the 2nd half may well have more promise which we may all benefit from if things go to plan. But if things don't pan out then it could end up being a very disapointing winter for some and a great one for others. So far, I'm happy with winter as we've already beaten 2006/2007 and 2007/2008 and with 2 months and 2 thirds left of winter - I'm feeling quite excited.

[leicsnow]

Hmm, I keep going back and forth in faith that it won't be a mild winter for me or anything but right now I'm on low confidence lol. Sometimes I'm confident and I'm like yay I will get snow but sometimes....Uggh. (Sorry if I'm going off the forecast topic)

[A Winter's Tale]

You should get snow at some stage - even if it isn't from a big freeze but really it's a question for how much or how little you'll get. For Cumbria northwards it could end up being a 4th decent winter but for some places in the southern half it could end up being desperatly frustrating. Once this storm is passed I'm sure there will be more interest on the snow on Friday and Saturday and the rest of the month.

[SnowObsessor90]

Hmm, I keep going back and forth in faith that it won't be a mild winter for me or anything but right now I'm on low confidence lol. Sometimes I'm confident and I'm like yay I will get snow but sometimes....Uggh. (Sorry if I'm going off the forecast topic)

I'm also in the 'low on confidence' category at the minute. Chances of a decent snow fall looked good for my area in the NW of England a few days ago and now the chances of it happening are next to nothing. Hope this isn't general trend that goes on for me right throughout the winter.

[A Winter's Tale]

I'm also in the 'low on confidence' category at the minute. Chances of a decent snow fall looked good for my area in the NW of England a few days ago and now the chances of it happening are next to nothing. Hope this isn't general trend that goes on for me right throughout the winter.

Come on, we haven't even completed December yet and most forecasts are hinting at more prospects for snow later on in the winter. The game for most of those further south will be a waiting game, a game that involves patience but will end up being worthwhile.

I no longer want to repeat myself about the winter to others who are worried so really just get on with things, keep an eye on the current weather and models, see how the winter pans out and don't panic, and stop repeatingly asking about something that can't be answered with certainty. We're no longer in autumn when speculation of winter is discussed, we're now in winter and we'll have to go through it step by step and month by month to get an idea of what's going to happen and only when something like a SSW happens then we can begin to speculate about the weather further down the line with reason. Relax, take a chill pill!

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

^{mark vogans forecast is heading for the trash can i think he will have to face that reality very soon.}

[greybing]

^{mark vogans forecast is heading for the trash can i think he will have to face that reality very soon.}

very presumptous.you some expert or maybe a truck driver withn an accute knowledge of meteorology..Well,i hope the forcast is

correct[obviously].Faith ,you got to have faith..a faith ...r and empirical scientific knowledge,data and an awareness of ignorance.

Edited December 8, 2011 by greybing

[SnowObsessor90]

Come on, we haven't even completed December yet and most forecasts are hinting at more prospects for snow later on in the winter. The game for most of those further south will be a waiting game, a game that involves patience but will end up being worthwhile.

I no longer want to repeat myself about the winter to others who are worried so really just get on with things, keep an eye on the current weather and models, see how the winter pans out and don't panic, and stop repeatingly asking about something that can't be answered with certainty. We're no longer in autumn when speculation of winter is discussed, we're now in winter and we'll have to go through it step by step and month by month to get an idea of what's going to happen and only when something like a SSW happens then we can begin to speculate about the weather further down the line with reason. Relax, take a chill pill!

You make good points and are 100% spot on of course, this winter as GP quite rightly pointed out looks likely to be a slow burner with the real action taking place later on if anything happens at all which certainly should not be discounted at this early stage.

As for me overreacting? well wouldn't pay to much attention to that post as I can be a very fickle specimen when it comes to the weather even more so than Tellow probably. You just happened to catch me when I was in one of my daily depressions on the subject.

Still frustrated and a bit worried but leaning more towards neutral again now.

Edited December 8, 2011 by Anonymous21

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

very presumptous.you some expert or maybe a truck driver withn an accute knowledge of meteorology..Well,i hope the forcast is

correct[obviously].Faith ,you got to have faith..a faith ...r and empirical scientific knowledge,data and an awareness of ignorance.

hi jeff well im not being preumptous actually.just look at the models its right in front of your eyes

[shedhead]

Madden has updated and is claiming success due the recent snow in Scotland, despite the fact it's come as a result of raging zonality, rather than the

Northern blocking he predicted.... http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

[Gavin Hannah]

hi jeff well im not being preumptous actually.just look at the models its right in front of your eyes

Well Mark does say that he doesn't really on models. He looks at the seasonal pattern as a whole by looking at the what the weather was, and is doing. If Marks forecast was to turn out to be 99% accurate, then it won't show up on the models until the changes took place.

Personally, I hope his forecast is correct. I will be giving him until the 20th/25th Dec before I pass judgement, at least by then, we will have an idea if it's close to fruition or not.

And models change constantly. No one saw the start to Dec we have had in the North of the UK. In fact, with less than week to go to Dec, I believe the models were going for Euro High.

Edited December 9, 2011 by MadSnowboarder

[bluearmy]

Mark Vogan has been stressing about how there was little to no warning of cold and snow around 17th-20th December 2009. I've been wondering, what were the models showing at around the 7th in 2009? Did it point to mild,like it is pointing to this year, or cold and snow like what happened, in the run up to xmas? Then we can establish whether it is likely that this year really will follow a similar trend, like Mark has said.

Clicked on the archive gfs 6z op for 7/12/09. a very blocked and wintry run after the first few days. he's wrong if he made that statement. even some of the runs from the 1st december are 'full of eastern promise'. cold rarely pops out of nowhere with four gfs runs per day out to T384.

[Summer Sun]

Madden has updated and is claiming success due the recent snow in Scotland, despite the fact it's come as a result of raging zonality, rather than the

Northern blocking he predicted.... http://www.exactawea...e_Forecast.html

If the Met Offices update today is anything to go by then there will be a widespread Green Christmas and NOT a white one, as for prolonged cold and snow, none in site for the South the North has best chance for some snow. Looks like the Atlantic will be in charge for a while yet.

[chionomaniac]

Clicked on the archive gfs 6z op for 7/12/09. a very blocked and wintry run after the first few days. he's wrong if he made that statement. even some of the runs from the 1st december are 'full of eastern promise'. cold rarely pops out of nowhere with four gfs runs per day out to T384.

Yes, another split that was suggested prior to events.

I really can't see a change to the current pattern until January with the slight exception of a ridge over the UK. But the ridging I feel is unlikely due to the trend of the jet staying south as initially this is where one would have thought that would be where the ridge will grow from.. No change with this for the foreseeable future and I expect when things do change it will be from the east, but a lot of water to flow under the bridge prior to then, and unlikely in December as Nick S suggests.

Edited December 9, 2011 by chionomaniac

[Alex95]

Clicked on the archive gfs 6z op for 7/12/09. a very blocked and wintry run after the first few days. he's wrong if he made that statement. even some of the runs from the 1st december are 'full of eastern promise'. cold rarely pops out of nowhere with four gfs runs per day out to T384.

I remember the Jan 10 cold spell seemed to appear within +168 as everyone expected the Dec 09 cold to be blown away by SW'lies, but it actually held on in Scotland and the far north of England between Christmas and New Year. On Christmas Eve I was quite sad at the prospect of the best cold spell in ages coming to an end, but I had a look on Christmas Day and there seemed to be a chance of cold again in the New Year. By Boxing Day the New Year NE'ly was being shown (within +120 now as it started 5 days later on New Years Eve), and everyone on here was claiming it must be 'Christmas data issues' as such an extent of northern blocking couldn't suddenly appear, but of course those charts did actually verify.

Edited December 9, 2011 by alza

[Guest]

Still comparatively warm in western Russia and Scandinavia still under the influence of the Atlantic.

[chionomaniac]

Still comparatively warm in western Russia and Scandinavia still under the influence of the Atlantic.

Mike, I would never worry about that other than Autumn snowcover stratospheric feedback mechanisms.

It takes no time at all for a cold shot to cool things there and that would occur prior to any easterly.