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The Winter 2011/12 Forecast Thread


reef

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

funny how he is now saying he has been misquoted by the tabloids, yet he proudly displayed such a front page headline on his home-page, only a few weeks ago.

ian, the problem with james madden is his unwillingness to admit when he is wrong. fair play to him for making a forecast based on 'experimental' or 'alternative' methods, but i have personally had a 'discussion' with him on the daily mail forums, over a year ago. i found him to be arrogant and unreasonable. he poured scorn on the professional forecasters and is still doing so on his website. how can he expect to gain any respect with that kind of attitude.

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Posted
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but mild south-westeries in winter
  • Location: Whitkirk, Leeds 86m asl

He appears to gain enough respect from die hard coldies!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

TBF to mark, he is sticking to his guns, despite the models not currently showing a strong -NAO signature for mid dec. i expect he'll have to start eating some humble pie come next weeks offering, much as i hoped he wouldnt

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Posted
  • Location: Hucknall, Nottingham 100m (328ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Blizzards, Hoarfrost, Frost and Extremes
  • Location: Hucknall, Nottingham 100m (328ft) ASL

From last week:

It would be nice to see this forecast come off :cold: and full respect to the fella for analyzing his own forecast and putting himself out there :good:

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Outdoors
  • Location: West Sussex

Funnily enough the plan was to have winter discussion in one thread and just the forecasts in this one, but it never quite plays out as planned.

I'll have a play over the weekend.

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Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy Winters and cool, wet Summers
  • Location: Leicestershire

That's some good ideas presented by Mark Vogan. Good thing is he is very confident and doesn't have a go at people who disagree with him, unlike James Madden who will call you a "sheep".

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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

funny how he is now saying he has been misquoted by the tabloids, yet he proudly displayed such a front page headline on his home-page, only a few weeks ago.

ian, the problem with james madden is his unwillingness to admit when he is wrong. fair play to him for making a forecast based on 'experimental' or 'alternative' methods, but i have personally had a 'discussion' with him on the daily mail forums, over a year ago. i found him to be arrogant and unreasonable. he poured scorn on the professional forecasters and is still doing so on his website. how can he expect to gain any respect with that kind of attitude.

Spot on, Madden is right out of the Corbyn school of 'I'm never wrong and even if I am I'll never admit it' - that cannot be considered anything other than arrogant as you rightly say and should

be free to discuss.

Incidently, what is wrong with starting a thread like this Ian, is it not weather related? Moreover, my initial title was not in anyway derogatory, what else are his updates apart from 'ramblings'?

Anyone can see James Maddens forecasts are nothing more than educated guesswork, hyped, spun and sensationalised primarily for commercial gain, not in the so called 'name of science'

that he likes to portray.

Corbyn may well have his faults, but at least he doesn't hide his commercial light under a bushel, pretending be a man of the people while quietly going kerr ching at every possible opportunity.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
Posted · Hidden by IanM, December 2, 2011 - now merged topics
Hidden by IanM, December 2, 2011 - now merged topics

Can we not put this in the winter forecast thread, i hardly think its deserving of its own separate thread.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I hope Ian is able to put all the winter forecasts into one thread and have them at the start of the thread rather than all mixed up with comments about them. That would make it so much easier to read what they predicted and compare one with the other?

Perhaps a lot of work Ian but I'm hopeful!

Edited by IanM
tidying up from thread merge
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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Outdoors
  • Location: West Sussex

Spot on, Madden is right out of the Corbyn school of 'I'm never wrong and even if I am I'll never admit it' - that cannot be considered anything other than arrogant as you rightly say and should

be free to discuss.

Incidently, what is wrong with starting a thread like this Ian, is it not weather related? Moreover, my initial title was not in anyway derogatory, what else are his updates apart from 'ramblings'?

Anyone can see James Maddens forecasts are nothing more than educated guesswork, hyped, spun and sensationalised primarily for commercial gain, not in the so called 'name of science'

that he likes to portray.

Corbyn may well have his faults, but at least he doesn't hide his commercial light under a bushel, pretending be a man of the people while quietly going kerr ching at every possible opportunity.

I've not said there is a problem with the thread discussing his forecast Adrian, but we do already have a thread dealing with winter forecasts, Exacta's among them including his most recent update as Summer Blizzard has pointed out.

I just don't like to see them wandering off from discussing the forecast to discussing the forecasters personality, as you have pointed out quite stridently in the past, there is no excuse for it and it only serves to antagonise the individuals involved and their followers.

As for hiding commercial interests, I don't know that he has, and haven't tried to dig deeper either as he doesn't cross our path professionally at all.

Like I say, at least we know who he is, and what his forecast is, the same can't be said for all winter forecasts from commercial outfits.

seems a good idea to me, I hope Ian is able to put all the winter forecasts into one thread and have them at the start of the thread rather than all mixed up with comments about them. That would make it so much easier to read what they predicted and compare one with the other?

Perhaps a lot of work Ian but I'm hopeful!

I'm working on it John, I agree one easy reference point for all the forecasts we have access to would make life a lot easier.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I've not said there is a problem with the thread discussing his forecast Adrian, but we do already have a thread dealing with winter forecasts, Exacta's among them including his most recent update as Summer Blizzard has pointed out.

I just don't like to see them wandering off from discussing the forecast to discussing the forecasters personality, as you have pointed out quite stridently in the past, there is no excuse for it and it only serves to antagonise the individuals involved and their followers.

As for hiding commercial interests, I don't know that he has, and haven't tried to dig deeper either as he doesn't cross our path professionally at all.

Like I say, at least we know who he is, and what his forecast is, the same can't be said for all winter forecasts from commercial outfits.

I'm working on it John, I agree one easy reference point for all the forecasts we have access to would make life a lot easier.

many thanks Ian

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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

I've not said there is a problem with the thread discussing his forecast Adrian, but we do already have a thread dealing with winter forecasts, Exacta's among them including his most recent update as Summer Blizzard has pointed out.

I just don't like to see them wandering off from discussing the forecast to discussing the forecasters personality, as you have pointed out quite stridently in the past, there is no excuse for it and it only serves to antagonise the individuals involved and their followers.

As for hiding commercial interests, I don't know that he has, and haven't tried to dig deeper either as he doesn't cross our path professionally at all.

Like I say, at least we know who he is, and what his forecast is, the same can't be said for all winter forecasts from commercial outfits.

I'm working on it John, I agree one easy reference point for all the forecasts we have access to would make life a lot easier.

With respect Ian your opening line was ' If we must have these threads', which is hardly a ringing endorsement of it from you, but if by that you meant it should simply have been phased into the Winter Forecast thread then fair enough. The reason I started a thread on it tho is because like Corbyns 'exceptionally cold from Nov 28th' forecast, this one stands out there head and shoulders above all others and in my mind is worthy of closer scrutiny. I've no personal axe to grind with either Corbyn or Madden, but to my way of thinking folk who make sensationalist forecast like theirs to grab the limelight should be made to remain in that limelight, good, bad or ugly.

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Outdoors
  • Location: West Sussex

If we must have these threads, can we limit the discussion to the forecast, it's merits and issues and not stray into becoming insulting or personal please.

Conveniently you seem to have forgotten the reason why it is not a ringing endorsement, having to read these type of threads (which, as you you have started both of them, you are well aware will attract some pretty damning comments) is important as the comments can quickly become personally insulting or just straight our slanging matches.

Again, after your comments about last years PC thread, I am surprised that you saw fit to try to recreate the same conversations again? Would you like to share your reasons for deciding they both deserve their own threads, it's not to promote their forecasts, or them as individuals, so the sole aim is to encourage scorn and criticism?

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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

Conveniently you seem to have forgotten the reason why it is not a ringing endorsement, having to read these type of threads (which, as you you have started both of them, you are well aware will attract some pretty damning comments) is important as the comments can quickly become personally insulting or just straight our slanging matches.

Again, after your comments about last years PC thread, I am surprised that you saw fit to try to recreate the same conversations again? Would you like to share your reasons for deciding they both deserve their own threads, it's not to promote their forecasts, or them as individuals, so the sole aim is to encourage scorn and criticism?

Nothing of the sort Ian, I created it simply to give members a chance to view it and if they felt moved to do so, comment on it. The last time a thread went up like this several people were positive about Madden, as others have been about Corbyn in the past. It's all about opinions, but again with respect several senior members and even some moderators have not held back on their personal critisisms in the past, John Holmes and Peter Tattum being to very good cases in point.

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Posted
  • Location: Ribble Valley
  • Location: Ribble Valley

If we must have these threads, can we limit the discussion to the forecast, it's merits and issues and not stray into becoming insulting or personal please. I think is will become the standard disclaimer every third post in these threads.

One thing for James, he doesn't charge for the full forecast, and it's out there for all to see, regardless of outcome and he deserves credit for that at the very least.

Quite agree Ian, full credit to him for sticking to his guns, Whether he's right or wrong, the level of abuse by those who like to slate all LRF but never publish their own, is downright rude.
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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Outdoors
  • Location: West Sussex

OK Adrian, to make it fair though you should post your winter forecast up for critique too? Others who haven't written or been involved with their companies forecast, or maybe like Pete have no faith in any LRF state their position very clearly. Maybe you should do the same?

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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.

OK Adrian, to make it fair though you should post your winter forecast up for critique too? Others who haven't written or been involved with their companies forecast, or maybe like Pete have no faith in any LRF state their position very clearly. Maybe you should do the same?

Bingo!

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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

Perhaps a bit more research and a little less critisism wouldn't go amiss...

Posted 23 October 2011 - 22:55 In essence drier than average for most of the UK, mildest in the NW, coldest in the SE. Looking farther afield, dry and warm Iberia, dry W Europe, colder from Poland-Italy eastwards, coldest against the average in SE Europe where there will be some significant snowfalls.. .as ever tho, time will tell.

Edited by shedhead, 24 October 2011 - 06:54 .

BTW - Where can I view your LRF's David Snow and 7 of 9?

Edited by shedhead
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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Outdoors
  • Location: West Sussex

I was thinking more the detailed rolling seasonal forecast, but I guess two lines for the three months of winter covering the whole of Europe and a chunk of Asia will have to suffice.

As for asking for the other members LRF's, they didn't create threads to criticise or draw attention to your forecast, or any other company or individuals forecast. They merely participated in a thread you created to invite comments...

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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER
I was thinking more the detailed rolling seasonal forecast, but I guess two lines for the three months of winter covering the whole of Europe and a chunk of Asia will have to suffice. As for asking for the other members LRF's, they didn't create threads to criticise or draw attention to your forecast, or any other company or individuals forecast. They merely participated in a thread you created to invite comments...
That was my call way back in October, I was not about to claim I'm on top of the detail, when at that time few if any of the building blocks were in place to make a forecast.

For what it's worth tho, again highlighted within GP's Winter Forecast thread if you choose to look, I am and have for some weeks been thinking much along the same lines as him. Mildest early, colder middle, cold end.

I didn't create threads to critisise others per say, I created the threads to stimulate debate about weather, which I assumed was the whole purpose of this weather forum. As this is a thread for discussing Winter Forecasts, I'm struggling to see what a one word post of 'Bingo' adds to the overall debate.

Edited by shedhead
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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Outdoors
  • Location: West Sussex

It was a separate thread at the time.

You never replied to my pm by the way, from the time you were defending a forecaster who was quoted that blizzards would fall if temps were 6c in September :

"Well they appear to be available on the end of a phone, or e-mail. Perhaps those who can find time to critisise can also find time to ring or mail them and ask for clarification."

You seemed a little more generous towards them?

On that note, we've cluttered this thread enough, pm me if you'd like to continue this conversation, or we can just leave it as it stands?

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

I guess one of the things that has highlighted an unusual precursor to the season was the almost record breaking mild spell.

Some Winter forecasts include November in their coverage and if the method used was thought to be 'spot on' (say 70% certainty by the forecaster) then surely this period of relatively unusual weather would have stuck out?

http://blogs.news.sky.com/theweathergirls/Post:7a2a1697-579b-45a2-b95b-f0bfd25b3690

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Posted
  • Location: Plymouth,Devon
  • Weather Preferences: I do like the cold weather......
  • Location: Plymouth,Devon

The last three Winters were cold all over the UK,were these just of one off events. And will it now revert back to the mild Winter weather we are accustomed to ?.

Living in the South-West as i do,it was a change to have had long cold spells,especially last year.

A forecaster on the BBC last year said that the cold Winters will be a trend we need to get used to,was that a tad wrong of him to say that back then ?.

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