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The Winter 2011/12 Forecast Thread


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Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

I wish. Sustained cold is very unfavourable this side of the new year. So many factors stopping that from happening. Including a very strong PV which is one of the main factors making quick work of any cold that attempts to cross the UK. Basically any cold is likely to come from topplers, lasting 1-3 days before clearing, allowing milder uppers to sweep in.

After the new year, we have a chance. :)

Right, I have not been able to follow the models as well I should recently and saw today's GFS and did wonder. I agree that this early any sustained cold is rare/not always good but as you said we are seeing some "colder" spells now.

Watching the east, I see the cold is inching it's way over this way, albeit very slowly.

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Posted
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl

This is a section from Mark Vogan's winter forecast written in October.

The past two winters have seen heavy snow followed by harsh cold prior to Christmas with 2009 seeing Pre-Christmas travel chaos.

Unfortunately, I can see a repeat of both heavy, widespread snow and cold leading up to Christmas 2011 as a building Arctic air mass fills Scandinavia with this process commencing around the start of December.

As December progresses after a relatively mild, wet and unsettled start, like in 2009, I am most concerned about the period around the 15th through 20th as I believe we'll start to see the expanding cold over Norway and Sweden start to migrate westwards as a Greenland Block sets up

It will be interesting over the next week or so if we see the Arctic air mass fill Scandinavia like he states. Going by the last few GFS runs and now quite interesting tonights ECM hight rises over Greenland has shown tentative signs of developing, not huge I know, but these things sometimes take quite a few steps especiallialy since we have a lot of other factors going against us at the moment. We will have a better idea as to the accuracy of the early part of his forecast in around a weeks time. I will be looking out for hights to develop over/near Greenland and for Scandi to get progressively colder as we head into December.

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

This is a section from Mark Vogan's winter forecast written in October.

The past two winters have seen heavy snow followed by harsh cold prior to Christmas with 2009 seeing Pre-Christmas travel chaos.

Unfortunately, I can see a repeat of both heavy, widespread snow and cold leading up to Christmas 2011 as a building Arctic air mass fills Scandinavia with this process commencing around the start of December.

As December progresses after a relatively mild, wet and unsettled start, like in 2009, I am most concerned about the period around the 15th through 20th as I believe we'll start to see the expanding cold over Norway and Sweden start to migrate westwards as a Greenland Block sets up

It will be interesting over the next week or so if we see the Arctic air mass fill Scandinavia like he states. Going by the last few GFS runs and now quite interesting tonights ECM hight rises over Greenland has shown tentative signs of developing, not huge I know, but these things sometimes take quite a few steps especiallialy since we have a lot of other factors going against us at the moment. We will have a better idea as to the accuracy of the early part of his forecast in around a weeks time. I will be looking out for hights to develop over/near Greenland and for Scandi to get progressively colder as we head into December.

Who is Mark Vogan? Is he well respected in weather forecasting circles?

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Posted
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl

Who is Mark Vogan? Is he well respected in weather forecasting circles?

I don't know how respected he is but he does seem to put a lot of though and effort into his video forecasts on Youtube. If you have a facebook account you will find his weather site.

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Weather-and-Climate-Through-The-Eyes-of-Mark-Vogan/368502778051

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Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

This is a section from Mark Vogan's winter forecast written in October.

The past two winters have seen heavy snow followed by harsh cold prior to Christmas with 2009 seeing Pre-Christmas travel chaos.

Unfortunately, I can see a repeat of both heavy, widespread snow and cold leading up to Christmas 2011 as a building Arctic air mass fills Scandinavia with this process commencing around the start of December.

As December progresses after a relatively mild, wet and unsettled start, like in 2009, I am most concerned about the period around the 15th through 20th as I believe we'll start to see the expanding cold over Norway and Sweden start to migrate westwards as a Greenland Block sets up

It will be interesting over the next week or so if we see the Arctic air mass fill Scandinavia like he states. Going by the last few GFS runs and now quite interesting tonights ECM hight rises over Greenland has shown tentative signs of developing, not huge I know, but these things sometimes take quite a few steps especiallialy since we have a lot of other factors going against us at the moment. We will have a better idea as to the accuracy of the early part of his forecast in around a weeks time. I will be looking out for hights to develop over/near Greenland and for Scandi to get progressively colder as we head into December.

I hope he's right and I like the sound of cold in the 2nd half of December and most of January. He also puts a lot of detail, effort and feasonable conclusions and ideas with decent factors, unlike James Madden who says every month will be below average with widespread heavy snow.

I really do hope he's right.

Also he lives less than a mile away from my house in a town called Lennoxtown that lies under the Campsie Fells. So as there is nothing in the way of cold and snow for my favourite time of the year yet, I'm going to follow and back his forecast and hope he's right. Of course if he's wrong, we've got January and Febuary to catch up with the severe cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl
  • Location: Grimsby, North East Lincolnshire 16m asl

I hope he's right and I like the sound of cold in the 2nd half of December and most of January. He also puts a lot of detail, effort and feasonable conclusions and ideas with decent factors, unlike James Madden who says every month will be below average with widespread heavy snow.

I really do hope he's right.

Also he lives less than a mile away from my house in a town called Lennoxtown that lies under the Campsie Fells. So as there is nothing in the way of cold and snow for my favourite time of the year yet, I'm going to follow and back his forecast and hope he's right. Of course if he's wrong, we've got January and Febuary to catch up with the severe cold.

You and me both. His forecast reads very well if you like cold and snow. Lets watch the charts over the next few weeks to see if his early thoughs are correct.

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Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

Just a tad confused here, is Peter O'Donnell, RJS's nom de plume then? (or indeed the other way around)

http://www.irishweat...r-uk/42008.html

Yeah, seems a bit strange. Not even a member of the Forum Team knows who is who!!!!! Pitty, I expected better :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

We are getting very close to the date when Netweather issues its first full winter forecast, and others such as weather outlook. Anyone know when net weather will issue its forecast? Also looking forward to hearing GP's updated thoughts on the winter, which in his last presentation suggested a slow start to the season but the second half may deliver some proper wintry goods.

Generally it will be interesting to read others forecasts in the coming days. I have a feeling many will err on caution and say winter will probably not get going until christmas at the earliest, but the second half may promise some good returns these lingering well into the spring - a more traditional winter than the last three perhaps - more akin to the likes of 2000/2001, 2003/2004 and 2005/2006 maybe? - half decent winters in my book much better than the likes of 97/98, 98/99, 99/00, 01/02, 02/03, 04/05, 06/07 and 07/08.

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Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

Because these forecasts are being published at a later date I would feel that they would be more likely to be accurate. I really am hoping for another special event this winter regardless to when it happens. I would most certainly take a severe cold spell in January if December fails.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

The Americans are expecting something colder in their part of the World this year - not that that should effect us eh?

TRI-STATE AREA -- As was the case for the winter of 2010/2011, the prevailing weather pattern this year will be La Niña. Although a La Niña winter tends to be more variable than either a neutral winter or an El Niño winter, I can still give you some sort of idea as to what our coming winter is most likely to look like.

My current thinking is that we are still on track with what I mentioned in October. This winter still looks to provide a good chance for cooler-than-average temperatures and at-least-somewhat-more precipitation than normal. In general, this is to expect more cold and more snow and ice threats than usual. It’s not a certainty, but it’s still my best overall outlook for this winter.

http://www.connecttr...31#.TsyvR7KImU8

The past month has seen a number of winter forecasts make headlines. What is the difference between these long range forecasts and the Weather Watch 12 winter forecast? We spent the past six weeks putting together our winter forecast based on a groundbreaking weather pattern theory called the LRC, or Lezak's Recurring Cycle. This theory has truly changed the way we approach long range forecasting.

Let's start with the basics of the LRC theory: A unique weather pattern sets up every year between October 1st and November 10th The weather pattern cycles, repeats, and continues through winter, spring and into summer. Identifying the cycle length helps tremendously when making long range weather predictions.

Long term long-wave troughs and ridges become established and also repeat at regular times within the cycle. These dominant repeating features are a clue to where storm systems will reach peak strength, and where they will be their weakest.

The LRC is a winter-long pattern! There is a pattern! It isn’t just one long-wave trough, storm system, or ridge. It is a sequence of troughs and ridges that are cycling across the Northern Hemisphere. To put this in very simple terms, the weather pattern that occurs in October and November repeats thru winter, spring, and into summer. The cycle length is UNIQUE each LRC season. I've seen cycles of 42-46 days, 60-62 days, etc. Last LRC season's cycle duration was around 46-51 days, with most events repeating right at 50 days. This is the 6th winter season that I have been using the LRC to make long range forecasts.

The LRC has been used the past 2 years to produce accurate forecasts weeks and months in advance here in southeastern Wisconsin. Some of our forecasts got the attention of the local National Weather Service office in Sullivan. After accepting an invitation from the NWS office, on September 15, 2011 our weather team provided training on how to identify and use the LRC. Several other NWS offices across the Midwest joined in on the training session that day

So what are the facts of La Nina and winter here in southeastern Wisconsin? Below are snow totals for La Nina winters in Milwaukee. Keep in mind that Milwaukee averages around 50" of snow in a typical winter. For our area, La Nina winters have historically produced above average snowfall. But in the past 60 years, only 7 of 12 La Nina episodes have produced winters with above average snow! Basing a winter forecast solely on La Nina and predicting above average snowfall would only be successful 58% of the time according to past snow totals for Milwaukee.

2010-11 61.9"

2007-08 99.1"

2000-01 59.3"

1998-99 60.7"

1995-96 51.5"

1988-89 39.9"

1975-76 45.2"

1973-74 83.2"

1970-71 57.3"

1964-65 74.0"

1954-55 39.2"

1949-50 45.2"

After studying this Fall's overall weather pattern including analyzing countless 500mb maps, and picking out where ridges and troughs reach peak intensity, we were able to put together a comprehensive look at this winter.

Temperatures: Slightly Below Average

Discussion: Overall temperatures may be similar to last winter. While cold blasts will hit Wisconsin, mild pushes of air in parts of the pattern will help to keep temperatures in check overall. The key will be if we can get a snow pack and how long it lasts. The longer snow is on the ground, the colder temperatures will be this winter or any winter.

Snowfall: Above Average - 55" to 65"

Discussion: After a mild October and November it may be hard to think about snow. December may start off quiet, but a very active 2-3 week stretch of weather will kick winter into high gear. While we will see breaks from snow, possibly a couple extended one's, the active parts of the pattern should deliver a healthy amount of snow this winter season in the range of 55 to 65 inches. The most active parts of the pattern should repeat 3 times from December 1 to March 31. Our potential 'signature' storm should return the last week of December and produce a winter storm for Wisconsin.

http://www.wisn.com/...l#ixzz1eW39Lzgn

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Roger Smith is Peter O'Donnell is MT Cranium is.......he probably has more aliases....why though?

Joe

Roger has explained all that. Its very interesting to note a couple of points being made by Both Mark VOGAN and RJS. Both speak of cold in Dec at the same timescale but also speak of pressure rising in Scandinavia. Now those that read and follow GPs thoughts will also see that he speaks of the Finland HP or basically to expect height rises around Scandinavia? Differing methods yet same/similar outlook.

Stormy conditions gearing up nicely for early December, that is nicely on course with my friend RJS' forecast.

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

I expect the models will soon be 'falling in line'??? :winky:

Its looking stormy.....already are...aren't they?? :D:)

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

Stormy start, cooler middle of the month, snow to end the month and sets up for a cold january.

This sounds good to me, the first part seems like will be happening, strong winds something we have lacked so far, as we usually get this at this time of year.

Edited by Mark Neal Ox
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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL

Well well well, another conflicting report / forecast - I leeched this from TWO someone had posted it over there - interesting read all the same!

"Meanwhile, short and sharp Arctic bites are expected across the East Coast of America this season. In part, this is due to the prevalence of relatively cooler surface waters over the tropical Pacific that are associated with a La Niña. A deep cold snap over the East coast of the US points toward an abrupt and intense Arctic-type weather scenario in the UK in 14 to 21 days time. This deep freeze may see temperatures plummet, with significant widespread snowfall and perhaps blizzard across Britain during mid-December 2011."

From this site

http://www.weatherlogist...seasonalforecast/?p=1452

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Posted
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire
  • Location: Bearsden, East Dunbartonshire

Yes but doesn't a deep cold snap in the East coast of the US often mean the opposite over here?

Anyway I quite like their methods and I believe that they've got a good track record. Hopefull their forecast of a deep freeze in December will be right just like Mark Vogan's.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Who is Mark Vogan? Is he well respected in weather forecasting circles?

and trucking circles.......

http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/

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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

Well well well, another conflicting report / forecast - I leeched this from TWO someone had posted it over there - interesting read all the same!

"Meanwhile, short and sharp Arctic bites are expected across the East Coast of America this season. In part, this is due to the prevalence of relatively cooler surface waters over the tropical Pacific that are associated with a La Niña. A deep cold snap over the East coast of the US points toward an abrupt and intense Arctic-type weather scenario in the UK in 14 to 21 days time. This deep freeze may see temperatures plummet, with significant widespread snowfall and perhaps blizzard across Britain during mid-December 2011."

From this site

http://www.weatherlogist...seasonalforecast/?p=1452

I wonder if it could be commercially advantagous for them to call the above??.... ummmmm, tricky one!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL

I wonder if it could be commercially advantagous for them to call the above??.... ummmmm, tricky one!!!

Who knows Shedhead, but like AWT says they do have a canny track record. They called last year well I seem to remember. Anyway at this stage it's anyone's guess but if they come off and Mark Vogan is correct also then maybe some people need to open their minds think there may be other ways to predict with a certain degree of accuracy a month ahead? Just a thought I am not clued up either way !!!

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Posted
  • Location: ILCHESTER
  • Location: ILCHESTER

http://www.accuweath...-in-the-f/58114

Well, Accuweather had a few interesting points about La Nina and the Greenland High with respect to SST's over the coming winter...

Yep, far less inclined towards sensationalism now Joe B has left the building, but you do feel their Winter update due in early Dec may well include some significant

changes to the original.

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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL

http://www.accuweath...-in-the-f/58114

Well, Accuweather had a few interesting points about La Nina and the Greenland High with respect to SST's over the coming winter...

Cheers for that Nick, very interesting too, although I can't work out what it means for the UK? lol Clueless!!!

Yep, far less inclined towards sensationalism now Joe B has left the building, but you do feel their Winter update due in early Dec may well include some significant

changes to the original.

Does anyone have a link to weatherlogistic's winter LRF as I can't seem to find it?

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Does anyone have a link to weatherlogistic's winter LRF as I can't seem to find it?

http://www.weatherlo...st/?page_id=942

But it seems they are giving up LRF's. Here's an update:

After two winters of extreme cold and snow, we address the question of what is causing our unseasonable weather …

Intense blocking patterns located over Poland and the northwest Pacific Ocean have played havoc with our seasonal weather, driving southerly rivers of warm air into Britain and the southeast of the US. This wacky weather phenomenon has seen temperatures in England soar into the high teens during November. In a sense the east coast of the US and the UK are often teleconnected in their seasonal weather, as broadly speaking the planetary waves that are spun-out by our Earth’s rotation operate in their most stable state with a 60 to 70 degree wavelength. So it’s rather unsurprising that our northern hemisphere jet stream has deflected wildly northward at both longitudes, rather like two rather aggressive slinky shaker partners.

Yet as the jet stream flings northward, there have been equal arguments in the northwest America where the vigorous north Pacific upper air flow has plunged far south. This has resulted in unseasoned cold and winter storms that have sent soggy shivers across the northwest, with snow reported in parts of California much earlier than the seasonal norm. Meanwhile, short and sharp Arctic bites are expected across the East Coast of America this season. In part, this is due to the prevalence of relatively cooler surface waters over the tropical Pacific that is associated with a La Niña. A deep cold snap over the East coast of the US points toward an abrupt and intense Arctic-type weather scenario in the UK in 14 to 21 days time. This deep freeze may see temperatures plummet, with significant widespread snowfall and perhaps blizzard across Britain during mid-December 2011.

The good news, is that our resident high pressure blocking patterns are weakening somewhat and slipping southward. As the meandering wobbles in our upper air flow give way to a more laminar flow, unsettled weather with high winds and heavy rainfall are anticipated to in parts of northern of England and Scotland. Yet again the cause is our jet, situated around 11km above the surface it is fiercely blowing along the western shores of Greenland, introducing a cool Arctic airflow downstream. As this air mass comes into contact with the mild and most south-westerlies in the north-east Atlantic it tends to activate instability and rapid cyclogenesis, the process involved in the development of our frontal weather systems. As a result, we expect a series of deep and compact low pressures to storm toward Scotland that may lead to flash floods and structural wind damage.

The cause of all this wacky and topsy-turvy weather patterns perhaps lies in the strength of the polar jet. As the temperature gradient between the subtropics and poles intensifies in a warming climate, we may expect to see an increase in “blocking patternsâ€, due to the formation of deep lows that spin-up and help maintain neighbouring high pressures.

http://www.weatherlo...asonalforecast/

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