The Winter 2011/12 Forecast Thread

[Backtrack]

Any news on the winter forecast?

It's cheating a little to leave the winter forecast until winter actually starts!

[Paul]

So you've probably answered your own question there - it'll be out before the start of winter...

[Backtrack]

So you've probably answered your own question there - it'll be out before the start of winter...

So would that be the official start of Winter, December 21st, or the enthusiasts start of Winter, being December 1st?

[Paul]

Well we did already say it would be out this month...

[Backtrack]

Well we did already say it would be out this month...

Ah, sorry must of missed that.

Anyway, I am eager to hear GP's thoughts.

I am sure it will be an excellent forecast.

[cooling climate]

As for my third long range update for the winter 2011 and 12 well first there

will not be any Nov cold blast as I forcast in my October update nor do I

think there will be any meaningful cold before December the 15 apart from

perhaps a day or two transient affair. Changes will start to take place as

we go through the second half of December.

The coldest weather of this up and coming winter as I stated in my October

update will come between mid January and mid March where we could very

well see pronlonged cold and wintry weather with the likely hood of some

bitterly cold weather from the east and northeast.

A severe winter is not out of the question but we will have to wait until 2012

until we see any real signs of this.

Edited November 17, 2011 by Paul
Why??

[johnholmes]

Your calander says 17th Nov, clever boy I wonder can you tell the time as well.

As for my third long range update for the winter 2011 and 12 well first there

will not be any Nov cold blast as I forcast in my October update nor do I

think there will be any meaningful cold before December the 15 apart from

perhaps a day or two transient affair. Changes will start to take place as

we go through the second half of December.

The coldest weather of this up and coming winter as I stated in my October

update will come between mid January and mid March where we could very

well see pronlonged cold and wintry weather with the likely hood of some

bitterly cold weather from the east and northeast.

A severe winter is not out of the question but we will have to wait until 2012

until we see any real signs of this.

do we have to have the sarcasm at the start of your post, and calendar is I believe how you spell the word?

Edited November 17, 2011 by johnholmes

[Guest]

Just thinking - if it does not snow until after the New Year, I believe it would mean that 2011 was without any snow at all in my area (Watford)- can't be absolutely certain because I have been away part of the time. The only snow I recollect seeing are a few old patches on the top of the Massif Centrale in France at the beginning of March and on the top of Mount Canigou in the Pyrenees.

Edited November 17, 2011 by mike Meehan

[Coast]

Weatherwatch: Sensational predictions as icecap melts

Thursday 17 November 2011 22.30 GMT

This summer saw another melt of the Arctic icecap. Apparently this winter will be freezing cold with temperatures down to –20C – at least that's the rumour which spread like wildfire recently. It didn't come from any of the main forecasting agencies, which tend to shy away from seasonal forecasting. However, our appetite for winter forecasts has fuelled a frenzy of sensational predictions that we are heading for another bitter winter, but they are based on precious little evidence.

In fact, there are indications that this winter will not be all that bad. A record-breaking La Niña last winter cooled the tropical Pacific Ocean and sent shockwaves through global weather patterns, even triggering our early freeze followed by the mild end to winter. Although La Niña later died away, it re-emerged this autumn, but is now weaker and unlikely to have much punch at Britain this winter. Another player last winter was possibly the lack of solar activity, which scientists now think helps to set off colder winters across northern Europe. There is one element which is similar to last winter, though. The Arctic sea ice has been shrinking at an alarming rate over the past years, roughly coinciding with a run of wet summers and cold winters in the UK. This summer saw another severe melt of the Arctic icecap and another soggy summer here – so will winter follow suit and turn cold again? It will be a brave forecaster that makes a confident prediction this early based on that alone.

http://www.guardian....r?newsfeed=true

[Methuselah]

It's cheating a little to leave the winter forecast until winter actually starts!

Why not do what the newspaper charlatans do: rewrite it afterwards???

[95 Degrees]

I'm not going to go into deep detail with my forecast but my hunch is that this winter will be around or just below average and will be slightly milder than the two previous winters, I think it will fall somewhere between the winter of 2006/07 and 2009/10. By that I mean a period of mild slack HP periods epsecially early on in december and later in feb but with short but fairly severe cold/snow periods similar to what we saw in 2006/07 but slightly colder. like 2009/10 though i Think that the core of the cold will be in mid-december and early january and lowland areas will see frosts/snow but won't last more than 5 days/1 week max before mild and slack HP sets in, now and again the Atlantic might make inroads but due to a weak jet atm, I don't expect it to last long before slack HP or cold sets in again. So in my opinion, an average winter with mainly mild periods but ocassional deep cold pushing in from the NE and lasting for short periods, like 2006/07 but more colder.

[gottolovethisweather]

http://www.guardian....r?newsfeed=true

The Guardian, almost need commending here. What with their references to the sensationalist forecasts, not coming from the main forecasting agencies (i.e. professionals). I see they also indicate that they're based on very little evidence, albeit that is a little harsh in reality. To my mind, all these associations who pedal this tosh and repeatedly push the same scaremongering headlines, just so it can in the paper, are doing an injustice to the hard working meteorological scientists. Well done, the Guardian for showing its readers, some of the science behind the sensational headlines and also clearly stating that "he/she is a brave forecaster in making a prediction this early".

Back to the Models and what they indicate in the run-up to winter. Personally, I'm looking forward to the more active Atlantic and the TM and PM air masses that come with it. This may well last for few weeks and bearing this in mind, I feel we could see a winter, much more varied in weather type than the more recent ones. Of those brave folk, whom have posted their LRFs, I would favour RJS's, take additional pieces of Radiating Dendrites and mix in with the theories coming from GP, Cooling Climate and possibly Blast. Some of the aforementioned members have not posted their LRFs in full so I'm simply acknowledging their thoughts so far. These LRFs all come from members with far superior knowledge than I, so my attempt above is NOT a forecast and should not be taken as such. In summary, I'm guessing at zonality with alternate PM and TM spells (mild and cold) sometimes interspersed with drier spells, however these not lasting long, especially early in the period. Across the winter period I anticipate, Near Average Temps and Near Average Precipitation (up on recent years) being the main newsworthy headlines.

I am a coldie at heart and I really hope that my attempt at a forecast is wrong but I cannot see LYING SNOW lasting for many days on end, quite unlike recent years. :smiliz65:

The above guesswork is also very much forecast from an IMBY perspective (Southern England), therefore Scotland and probably Eastern England will fare much better for wintry stuff.

My methodology: haven't got one. The best I can say is that I use the input from a collaboration of favoured member's minds and add my input to it.

Enough ranting from me, really looking forward to the other much more detailed LRFs to come from GP, Blast et.al. And subsequently following them all, literally, day by day.

:w00t:

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited November 18, 2011 by gottolovethisweather

[damianslaw]

I'm not going to go into deep detail with my forecast but my hunch is that this winter will be around or just below average and will be slightly milder than the two previous winters, I think it will fall somewhere between the winter of 2006/07 and 2009/10. By that I mean a period of mild slack HP periods epsecially early on in december and later in feb but with short but fairly severe cold/snow periods similar to what we saw in 2006/07 but slightly colder. like 2009/10 though i Think that the core of the cold will be in mid-december and early january and lowland areas will see frosts/snow but won't last more than 5 days/1 week max before mild and slack HP sets in, now and again the Atlantic might make inroads but due to a weak jet atm, I don't expect it to last long before slack HP or cold sets in again. So in my opinion, an average winter with mainly mild periods but ocassional deep cold pushing in from the NE and lasting for short periods, like 2006/07 but more colder.

Interesting thoughts however a mix of winter 06/07 and 09/10 would be a very odd winter indeed - one I'm struggling to believe could occur. Winter 06/07 was predominantly very mild, with surface cold in the run up to christmas but then very mild and unsettled for the rest of the winter with just one cold shot between 6-9 feb. It was a dire winter for snow and cold lovers. Winter 09/10 was the complete opposite with a wet mild start to december but from mid dec we saw a very negative AO and NAO develop with much blocking over greenland and plenty of northerlies and easterlies bringing lots of snow and freezing cold. Do you mean a mix of winter 08/09 and 09/10? Its been a dry year in the main apart from the summer, and there is no strong signal for a very active jet this winter, indeed some are suggesting trong ridging over scandi for much of the winter moving westwards through the winter towards greenland, this would suggest lots of dry average conditions for the start of the winter but becoming much colder during the second half.. as the atlantic trough is forced to split and move se in time failing to move eastwards over the country much as we have seen all autumn.

I'm struggling to call this winter, but I have an inkling we are about to see a notably cold spring.

[Sunny Leith]

Hi folks ... long term lurker here, but I've been an avid climate watcher since the early 1970's. I have a high regard for many of the knowledgeable contributors on here and I bow to their deeper technical knowledge. I only want to make 2 observations

1) Winter LRF's are still a mugs game. And as entertaining as many of them are, plainly in October or November, saying that this or that will happen in mid-January or the 3rd week in February ... is as much hopecasting as anything else. I'm not knocking peoples efforts but obviously such exactitude is beyond anyones ability.

2) Although this current spell is admittedly quite boring day to day, its notable in in its own way for its close to unprecedented levels and duration of mildness. This is just my subjective local overview but we seem to be in a long period now where patterns become established and hang around for a long time. From a local (Edinburgh) perspective over the past 12 months:

• 6 weeks of unprecedented cold and snow
  
• then a long boring mildish end to winter
  
• then a warm spring
  
• then a cool wet summer
  
• then an Indian summer that has has stretched into a long very mild autumn
  

We seem to be in a general situation that is characterised by long "stuck" patterns rather than rapid variability. Perversely perhaps that gives me some hope for later in the winter - and perhaps longer and deeper cold - somewhere beyond FI. Assuming that such a pattern changes actually occurs, then there may be a chance that it will stick in a cold pattern for some time. Who would be surprised if we did indeed see a cold spring as suggested by damianslaw above ?

Time will tell, but these "stuck" patterns (more blocking perhaps) are quite a noteworthy feature of the climate this last year or two. Interesting...

Anyway, keep up the good work. Netweather is still the best place to come for the full spectrum of genuine insights and good old-fashioned hopecasting ! :happy:

[Liam J]

Ive just had a look at Stewart Ramplings prelimary thoughts video, Im not convinced he is thinking a cold start to winter, possibly a cold end though. I am still going for an atcive mobile winter, just like I said a few months ago. However I think using the phrase "the earliest we will see this is Feb" which was in realtion to Stratospheric warming events, is the giveaway for a cold, late Spring.

December CET: +0.6 above average: The main driver is a postive AO, with the high pressure over Greenland weak and transistionary. I think December will be a very mobile month with very large areas of low pressure bringing in wind and rain, above average temps, as high pressue over eastern Europe and Low pressure over the atlantic draws in warmer air from Africa. However still think our cold spells will come from The NW and North as low pressure moves off into the near continent, dragging in cooler air behind. No sustained cold Im afarid. Looks like being a brown grey christmas. This is potentially a very stormy month (Just like 1998 that had the boxing day storms up here in the north).

At the moment looking at the current outputs I would be backing a similar outcome to what LOS has predicted, especially for the first half of December with cold incursions digging PM air southwards during the passage of depressions over the UK, large temp gradients over the Atlantic could potentially fuel some intense storm systems.

[Backtrack]

Why not do what the newspaper charlatans do: rewrite it afterwards???

Now that would be cheating on a whole new level

[Jane Louise]

My other half has said that some of his customers who are elderly have said that we may be in for a snowy december and January.This, being put down to experiences of years gone by after mild Autumns. Of course, we will have to wait and see.There is an old folklore saying also ,( whether you believe it or not) that says late blooms in Autumn means a very cold and snowy winter and I have roses, wallflowers and in bloom at present.

Please remember of course this isen't my own forecast.

[Guest]

I suppose a lot depends on whether this Euro high sticks around and perhaps moves a little further north - it seems to have become a more or less permanent feature in the last few weeks.

[VillagePlank]

I have fairly high confidence at this stage, that we will experience a much more prolonged period of increased jet-stream blocking in comparison to last year. This will bring frequent and widespread heavy snowfalls during November to January across many parts of the UK and Ireland, with below-average temperatures for the meteorological winter of 2011/12 as a whole.

http://www.exactawea...e_Forecast.html (4th November 2011)

Doesn't look so hot (pun intended) when you can't get the following four weeks anywhere near.

Edited November 22, 2011 by Boar Wrinklestorm

[Coast]

Just thought I'd add this snippet from Paul Hudson's blog from late last week:

Towards the end of November, and into December, there is a trend in some models for winds to switch to the Northwest.

This would bring somewhat colder temperatures, with some precipitation falling as snow across northern parts of the UK, more especially over hills - but this is perfectly normal for the time of the year.

Finally I though it was worth highlighting the forecast that was issued by Weather Action a few weeks ago. They have recently had some notable successes: last winter's severe weather (although February was a notable exception in being much milder than they expected); they correctly highlighted that this summer would be unsettled; and they also forecast a generally mild autumn some months ago.

So it is with interest that Weather Action have forecast that from Nov 27th to Dec 28th the UK and Ireland will be affected by exceptionally cold weather, with the potential for some 'huge snowfalls' because of solar considerations. The main computer models only forecast as far as the first week in December, and as it stands at the moment, although some are trending colder later in the period, none are signalling anything as dramatic as Weather Action is suggesting.

It will be very interesting to see who comes out on top.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/

[Coast]

Just a tad confused here, is Peter O'Donnell, RJS's nom de plume then? (or indeed the other way around)

http://www.irishweat...r-uk/42008.html

[Isolated Frost]

I am slightly less confident by my original forecast...

My opinions stay similar, with some slight differences. I foresee that December will be around average, but quite wet, with low heights to the north giving a domination of Pm and Tm airmasses. Generally turning drier and frostier again mid-month, before turning cool again before christmas from the west, and perhaps milder at the end from the sw. Average temperature, slightly above average rainfall.

January begins with low pressure dominating and Pm and Tm spells alternating to give a mixed outlook, then, mid-month, pressure rises, and a quite dry and frosty period lies. Eventually a classic retrogression, with the jet energy being slammed by a developing Greenland High, the last third of the month becomes colder with north and north-east winds dominating. Below average temperature, slightly below rainfall.

February in my opinion will begin cold on a similar pattern, turn more unsettled and mild with heights developing in europe and low pressure systems gliding S-N west of the UK, before the high again retrogresses and the possibility of cold in the last third from the east, but again, I see the atlantic winning with battleground snowfalls for the south, but no cold/severe cold. Generally slightly above average temperature wise, below rainfall wise.

Similar thoughts to previous. Average both temperature and rainfall wise, with northern hills and scotland enjoying December and early January the most, whilst England and Wales should get colder, snowier weather in January, and possibly early February.

I think a cool March (beginning wet and mild, turning cooler from the north west, ending lp dominated), a mixed April (generally warm, with a potent cold spell bringing snow and cold near the start of the month) and an extravagant warm May (heatwaves near the end of the month, generally slightly above average for the most part in the first 2 thirds). But then again, that's for spring. I maintain my winter forecast, but here are the adjustments just before we go into winter proper.

[A Winter's Tale]

I am slightly less confident by my original forecast...

My opinions stay similar, with some slight differences. I foresee that December will be around average, but quite wet, with low heights to the north giving a domination of Pm and Tm airmasses. Generally turning drier and frostier again mid-month, before turning cool again before christmas from the west, and perhaps milder at the end from the sw. Average temperature, slightly above average rainfall.

January begins with low pressure dominating and Pm and Tm spells alternating to give a mixed outlook, then, mid-month, pressure rises, and a quite dry and frosty period lies. Eventually a classic retrogression, with the jet energy being slammed by a developing Greenland High, the last third of the month becomes colder with north and north-east winds dominating. Below average temperature, slightly below rainfall.

February in my opinion will begin cold on a similar pattern, turn more unsettled and mild with heights developing in europe and low pressure systems gliding S-N west of the UK, before the high again retrogresses and the possibility of cold in the last third from the east, but again, I see the atlantic winning with battleground snowfalls for the south, but no cold/severe cold. Generally slightly above average temperature wise, below rainfall wise.

Similar thoughts to previous. Average both temperature and rainfall wise, with northern hills and scotland enjoying December and early January the most, whilst England and Wales should get colder, snowier weather in January, and possibly early February.

I think a cool March (beginning wet and mild, turning cooler from the north west, ending lp dominated), a mixed April (generally warm, with a potent cold spell bringing snow and cold near the start of the month) and an extravagant warm May (heatwaves near the end of the month, generally slightly above average for the most part in the first 2 thirds). But then again, that's for spring. I maintain my winter forecast, but here are the adjustments just before we go into winter proper.

Sounds great!

A cool Christmas or frosty/settled Christmas would make a great subsitute for a big freeze but this year I'm still standing by my prediction of a colder 2nd half to December.

However I love it when I read "Greenland High" in any forecast and I hope you're right as I would love to see another severe cold spell this winter and I think January would be a welcome 2nd best month for a big freeze in my books. Also, I do think that it's feasable for colder weather from Xmas onwards as I believe that our long overdue cold and snow will prevail for the rest of the winter.

[Jax]

Long time no post (apologies for that), just checked out the current 12z and am I right in thinking we are finally trending to sustained cold? the "run up" thus far has not been cold lets be honest but the "outlook" is showing some signs of change, might finally put my Rowan tree to sleep and last week managed to pick a final crop of outside tomatoes.

[Backtrack]

Long time no post (apologies for that), just checked out the current 12z and am I right in thinking we are finally trending to sustained cold? the "run up" thus far has not been cold lets be honest but the "outlook" is showing some signs of change, might finally put my Rowan tree to sleep and last week managed to pick a final crop of outside tomatoes.

I wish. Sustained cold is very unfavourable this side of the new year. So many factors stopping that from happening. Including a very strong PV which is one of the main factors making quick work of any cold that attempts to cross the UK. Basically any cold is likely to come from topplers, lasting 1-3 days before clearing, allowing milder uppers to sweep in.

After the new year, we have a chance.