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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

Already in use by the tabloids, missing a few. could do with a snow one and low temperatures, to go with KILLER COLD and POLAR VORTEX BLIZZARD SNOW STORM

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often unsettled, but rather mild

_________________________________________

Wednesday 6 February—Sunday 10 February

Remaining mild but unsettled

The remainder of this week will continue the mild and unsettled theme which ended last week's cold weather. Most areas will see temperatures near or slightly above average on Wednesday, with the driest, brightest weather across central and eastern portions of the country. An active front is likely to bring more widespread and perhaps heavy rain into southeastern Britain later in the day and overnight. Heavy showers in the north-west will give way to more general rain across western Britain and Northern Ireland later in the night. Thursday will be rather breezy and a little chillier, with bright or sunny spells and occasional showers moving across western and central Britain. Some of these will be heavy and thundery in north-west Scotland, perhaps bringing small hail.

Overnight, it will become mild and increasingly windy, as a warm front brings outbreaks of rain across much of the country from the south-west. Friday will continue to be mild but windy with rather persistent rain in the west, as a deep area of low pressure moves close to Ireland. There is a risk of gales or severe gales developing in southern and western Britain during the evening and overnight. By Saturday, it will remain very blustery with broken cloud for most areas, and a few showers moving into the west, but winds will tend to ease through the day. Scotland could see more general rain, however. Sunday will become a little cooler for all, with wintry showers edging into Scotland from the north, and a risk of some heavy and persistent rain perhaps affecting southern Britain.

Monday 11 February—Sunday 17 February

Wet and windy in the north.Calmer in the south

Next week will start off with a ridge of high pressure located across the UK, meaning there should be a lot of dry, fine and settled weather around. Winds will be generally light, although there is a risk of some wintry showers edging into eastern Britain from the North Sea. There is a risk of a frost for most as skies clear on Monday night, although this looks like being the last widespread frost for a while, as there will be a quick return to mild but often wet and windy conditions from the Atlantic through the rest of the week. Despite this transition to more unsettled conditions, high pressure is expected to build across France and the near Continent through the week, and will occasionally ridge north towards the UK.

Therefore, much of England and Wales can expect to see drier, calmer days interspersed with occasional patchy rain and breezier weather edging in from the west. Northern Britain is more likely to see some windy and perhaps very wet days, with persistent rain moving in from the west at times, although the wettest weather will always be more likely across Scotland. It will be rather mild for all areas, with temperatures remaining a couple of degrees above average thanks to winds predominantly from the west or south-west.

Monday 18 February—Sunday 3 March

Remaining mild, with an unsettled end to the month

As we look beyond mid-month, we can expect to see some major pattern changes; high pressure is likely to remain quite extensive across the UK to start with, allowing mild south or south-westerly airflows to move across the country, and keeping temperatures well above average. There will be a lot of dry and calm weather, however, as weather fronts are kept at bay in the Atlantic. There are then indications that the high-pressure area will begin to move to the north of the UK, opening the door to more frequent rain-bearing Atlantic fronts advancing towards western Britain. Scotland could end up becoming rather wet and windy for a few days, while a few weakening bands of rain could edge across the rest of the country. There is no risk of significant snow.

The outlook for the end of February and into the start of Meteorological Spring has changed, with a mild end to the month now anticipated. Computer models have trended towards a much less cold and 'blocked' weather pattern by this stage, with a reduced probability of widespread high pressure, and a significantly lower risk of snow. However, it is looking to be rather unsettled, with low pressure areas from the Atlantic often moving across the UK from the west. Although these will bring rather mild westerly or south-westerly airflows, they may affect southern and western Britain than northern areas more often. Therefore, some very wet and rather windy weather is expected across most of England and Wales, while temperatures will be nearer to normal in the north, with a small risk of snow at times.

Next Update

We will see if March has any colder weather to offer, or whether we could see an early start to spring.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
6 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often unsettled, but rather mild

_________________________________________

Wednesday 6 February—Sunday 10 February

Remaining mild but unsettled

The remainder of this week will continue the mild and unsettled theme which ended last week's cold weather. Most areas will see temperatures near or slightly above average on Wednesday, with the driest, brightest weather across central and eastern portions of the country. An active front is likely to bring more widespread and perhaps heavy rain into southeastern Britain later in the day and overnight. Heavy showers in the north-west will give way to more general rain across western Britain and Northern Ireland later in the night. Thursday will be rather breezy and a little chillier, with bright or sunny spells and occasional showers moving across western and central Britain. Some of these will be heavy and thundery in north-west Scotland, perhaps bringing small hail.

Overnight, it will become mild and increasingly windy, as a warm front brings outbreaks of rain across much of the country from the south-west. Friday will continue to be mild but windy with rather persistent rain in the west, as a deep area of low pressure moves close to Ireland. There is a risk of gales or severe gales developing in southern and western Britain during the evening and overnight. By Saturday, it will remain very blustery with broken cloud for most areas, and a few showers moving into the west, but winds will tend to ease through the day. Scotland could see more general rain, however. Sunday will become a little cooler for all, with wintry showers edging into Scotland from the north, and a risk of some heavy and persistent rain perhaps affecting southern Britain.

Monday 11 February—Sunday 17 February

Wet and windy in the north.Calmer in the south

Next week will start off with a ridge of high pressure located across the UK, meaning there should be a lot of dry, fine and settled weather around. Winds will be generally light, although there is a risk of some wintry showers edging into eastern Britain from the North Sea. There is a risk of a frost for most as skies clear on Monday night, although this looks like being the last widespread frost for a while, as there will be a quick return to mild but often wet and windy conditions from the Atlantic through the rest of the week. Despite this transition to more unsettled conditions, high pressure is expected to build across France and the near Continent through the week, and will occasionally ridge north towards the UK.

Therefore, much of England and Wales can expect to see drier, calmer days interspersed with occasional patchy rain and breezier weather edging in from the west. Northern Britain is more likely to see some windy and perhaps very wet days, with persistent rain moving in from the west at times, although the wettest weather will always be more likely across Scotland. It will be rather mild for all areas, with temperatures remaining a couple of degrees above average thanks to winds predominantly from the west or south-west.

Monday 18 February—Sunday 3 March

Remaining mild, with an unsettled end to the month

As we look beyond mid-month, we can expect to see some major pattern changes; high pressure is likely to remain quite extensive across the UK to start with, allowing mild south or south-westerly airflows to move across the country, and keeping temperatures well above average. There will be a lot of dry and calm weather, however, as weather fronts are kept at bay in the Atlantic. There are then indications that the high-pressure area will begin to move to the north of the UK, opening the door to more frequent rain-bearing Atlantic fronts advancing towards western Britain. Scotland could end up becoming rather wet and windy for a few days, while a few weakening bands of rain could edge across the rest of the country. There is no risk of significant snow.

The outlook for the end of February and into the start of Meteorological Spring has changed, with a mild end to the month now anticipated. Computer models have trended towards a much less cold and 'blocked' weather pattern by this stage, with a reduced probability of widespread high pressure, and a significantly lower risk of snow. However, it is looking to be rather unsettled, with low pressure areas from the Atlantic often moving across the UK from the west. Although these will bring rather mild westerly or south-westerly airflows, they may affect southern and western Britain than northern areas more often. Therefore, some very wet and rather windy weather is expected across most of England and Wales, while temperatures will be nearer to normal in the north, with a small risk of snow at times.

Next Update

We will see if March has any colder weather to offer, or whether we could see an early start to spring.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Just goes to show how volatile the models are right now!  A poor update for cold weather fans indeed, but have to take all forecasts with a pinch of salt more than ever at the moment imho.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
3 minutes ago, Don said:

Just goes to show how volatile the models are right now!  A poor update for cold weather fans indeed, but have to take all forecasts with a pinch of salt more than ever at the moment imho.

Time is rapidly running out now to save winter proper half-way through the month next Thursday bar the odd chiller day or so there are no hints even out in the depths of GFS for any significant cold weather

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Time is rapidly running out now to save winter proper half-way through the month next Thursday bar the odd chiller day or so there are no hints even out in the depths of GFS for any significant cold weather

I agree it is currently looking pretty bleak for cold and winter is now running out.  I hope for a turnaround in the models (in view of their volatile nature recently), but I'm not holding my breath!

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Time is rapidly running out now to save winter proper half-way through the month next Thursday bar the odd chiller day or so there are no hints even out in the depths of GFS for any significant cold weather

Aye but for me, as a fan of dry weather, I'd say models looking good from Monday, especially EC

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

John Hammond's latest monthly outlook

  • Drier spell
  • Some springlike sunshine
  • Cold easterlies for a time

Full forecast as ever is here for subscribers* https://weathertrending.com/2019/02/08/john-hammond-month-ahead-time-look-east/

*Subscription is free but you must sign up to view

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

Vague forecasts R us

I think they forgot to do it yesterday as it never appeared online last night

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
46 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

I think they forgot to do it yesterday as it never appeared online last night

It was on the TV at 2155.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often unsettled, but rather mild

_________________________________________

Monday 11 February—Sunday 17 February

Calmer, drier and for some areas, cooler

We will see a change in the weather on Monday as a ridge of high pressure builds in the west. This will gradually move eastwards across the country during the week, so most places will become dry, settled and calm. However, Atlantic weather systems could clip the far north-west of the British Isles, so there will be the chance of spells of wet weather here. The ridge of high pressure will move towards Scandinavia and western Russia later in the week. As it does so, broadly easterly or south-easterly winds will develop across central and eastern parts of the UK. Whilst winds from this direction tend to be cool at this time of year, we do not see any indications of any extremely cold weather developing. Western areas of the country could even remain in south to southwesterly winds and would then remain relatively mild.

Monday 18 February—Sunday 24 February

A return to more changeable weather.

As we look beyond mid-month, we can expect to see another change in the pattern across Europe which will have an impact on the weather for the UK. High pressure will still be a feature, but it will tend to be across northern and northeastern parts of the continent. This will allow Atlantic weather systems to start to move into western Europe again, but they will tend to track a little to the southwest of the UK. However, this does still mean that after our a relatively dry and settled week of weather, it will become more unsettled again with showers and rain, and the chance of some spells of windy weather too. However, the risk of strong winds and heavy rain is relatively low. Temperatures are likely to be near normal for the time of year, perhaps a little bit above normal in some areas.

The main alternative to this scenario is that the ridge of high pressure expected to be over northern and northeastern Europe actually moves away from the UK. This would allow more of an Atlantic influence on our weather, so wetter and windier weather would be more likely. Temperatures would probably be near normal though.

Monday 25 February—Sunday 10 March

An unsettled end to winter and start to spring.

There are indications that the area of high pressure expected to be across northern and northeastern Europe will pull away during the last few days of February and start of March. This would allow Atlantic weather systems to move more freely across the UK, so unsettled weather looks to be fairly likely. We're used to unsettled weather at this time of year, and so it is should be no surprise that most areas would have rainfall near normal with winds also close to the seasonal average. This doesn't preclude the odd very wet and windy spell of weather but that would be the exception. Temperatures are likely to be near normal for the time of year, and there is no significant risk of widespread snow.

Meteorological winter ends on February 28th but anyone looking for cold weather to end the winter is likely to be disappointed. There is some uncertainty over the forecast, but the most likely alternative to our expected pattern is for it to be milder, wetter and windier with southwesterly winds dominating.

There is only a small chance (15%) of chilly easterly winds reaching the UK, and even then only certain parts of the country are likely to be affected, England and Wales having the greatest chance of this.

Next Update

Will we see an early burst of spring, or will it remain unsettled and wet as we head into March?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Often mild and settled days

_________________________________________

Wednesday 13 February—Sunday 17 February

Mostly mild and dry. Some rain in the northwest.

The rest of this week will be often dry and mild for many but north-western parts of the UK will stay breezier with some rain at times. On Wednesday, much of England and Wales will be dry with bright or sunny spells. Scotland and Northern Ireland will be cloudier at times and breezy with spots of rain in places. It will be quite mild for much of the UK with highs of typically 9 to 13 Celsius.

Through Thursday and Friday, large parts of the UK will be dry and settled with some periods of sunshine. South to south-westerly winds will bring mild conditions with highs mostly in the range of 10 to 14 Celsius. A few sheltered spots are likely to reach 15 Celsius, perhaps with north-east Wales experiencing the highest temperatures. However, later on Friday, rain may reach northwest Scotland along with Northern Ireland.

This weekend the mild theme continues. However, western and north-western areas of the UK are likely to become cloudier with patchy rain as fronts edge closer from the Atlantic. The east and south-east of England should remain dry and settled throughout.

Monday 18 February—Sunday 24 February

Damp and breezy initially, then drier and settled

The first few days of next week are likely to become a little less mild with westerly winds freshening for a time and patchy rain spreading eastwards. Rain is most likely in the west and north but some should get through to eastern and southern areas for a time as well. For the second half of next week, it is expected to become calmer and drier as high pressure moves nearer again. There should be some fine and mild days but one or two chilly nights can be expected as well with a touch of night frost in places.

The main uncertainty is over the extent of any rain in the first half of the week - there is a slight chance that high pressure persists, keeping conditions dry and settled throughout.

Monday 25 February—Sunday 10 March

Dry and settled at first, then wetter later.

Indications are that the remainder of February will see a continuation of often dry and settled conditions, thanks to a nearby area of high pressure. There should be some fairly mild days but the nights could be chilly at times with patchy night frosts. No significant cold weather appears likely. However, there are chances that high pressure moves further north than we expect, which could draw in somewhat chillier winds from the east or south-east. In this scenario, temperatures would likely stay nearer to normal for the time of year.

Into early March, high pressure could become replaced by low pressure areas, bringing an increase in rainfall and wind. Wetter and breezier conditions appear to be most likely to develop in the north and west. Central and eastern areas of England could stay relatively dry and calm. It is expected to stay rather mild with a lack of any significant or prolonged cold weather.

Next Update

We will take another look at early March to see if our relatively calm and mild weather is likely to break-down for a time then.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Calgary is experiencing its coldest spell of Winter weather in 21 years....

https://globalnews.ca/news/4946862/calgary-cold-weather-streak/

Given its latitude and continental climate, that is something.

Looks like the SSW worked from some.

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