Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi

[Iceberg]

AT approx 11.00 GMT last night Willis island stopped recording(after I assume the island was totally flooded), gusts of 185 km/hr and sustained winds of 141 km/hr were recorded just before it went down with pressures possibly sub 940 being recorded as well.

Aprox 50 inchs of rain was recorded in 5 mins, but this must have just been a wall of water collapsing over the building...

[Iceberg]

Intensity is very difficult due to the lack of personally I would put Yasi at a Dvorak of 6.5 to 7.0 and somewhere between 130-140 kts so maybe just a CAT 5 on the SS scale, although it could be 20kts either side of this.

Looking at the sat pictures though this is the best Yasi has ever looked, razer sharp CDO, symetrical perfect large eye etc.

Very scary indeed

[GeorgeWX]

AT approx 11.00 GMT last night Willis island stopped recording(after I assume the island was totally flooded), gusts of 185 km/hr and sustained winds of 141 km/hr were recorded just before it went down with pressures possibly sub 940 being recorded as well.

Aprox 50 inchs of rain was recorded in 5 mins, but this must have just been a wall of water collapsing over the building...

Yes I heard mention of 933hpa around an hour ago.

edit: just heard it is 930hpa according to abc.

Edited February 2, 2011 by GeorgeWX

[Coast]

Record ocean temperatures and an intense La Nina weather pattern have helped spawn one of the most powerful cyclones in Australia but whether there's a direct climate change link is less clear. Cyclone Yasi, a maximum category 5 storm, was within hours of making landfall in far northern Queensland state and zeroing in on urban centres where more than 400,000 people live. If it maintained its current intensity when it crossed the coast, it would be the strongest cyclone to hit Queensland since 1899, said Alan Sharp, national manager, tropical cyclone warning services, of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The March 1899 cyclone struck a pearling fleet in Bathurst Bay on Cape York Peninsula, killing more than 300 people in Australia's deadliest storm.

"Yasi is not enormously unusual but it is at the top-end of the scale as far size goes as well as intensity," Sharp told Reuters from Melbourne on Wednesday. Sharp said the current La Nina was helping drive the record ocean temperatures around Australia that were helping fuel Yasi by providing abundant heat and moisture. La Nina events historically bring floods and an increase in cyclones during the Australian storm season from November to April.

"We can't say any particular cyclone is caused by climate change. There has been a slight trend towards more intense storms around the world," Sharp said, adding it was hard to figure out what was natural variability or climate-change related. Scientists say there is a likely climate change link to the current La Nina through higher sea surface temperatures. The world's oceans and atmosphere have steadily warmed over recent decades and that warmth could be providing monsoons and storms with an extra kick. A major global study in 2010, based on complex computer modelling, found that tropical cyclones will become stronger, with the intensity increasing between 2 and 11 percent by 2100.

And while in some regions, such as the western Pacific and around Australia, the average number of storms might decrease, the number of intense storms in the category 4 and 5 range will increase, along with wind speeds and the amount of rainfall. Yasi, though, isn't the only monster cyclone to menace Australia. Cyclone Tracy wiped out much of the city of Darwin on Christmas Day 1974, killing 71 people. The anemometer at Darwin airport recorded a gust of 217 kilometres per hour (135 miles per hour) before the instrument was destroyed, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.

Cyclone Larry ravaged the northern Queensland town of Innisfail in March 2006, becoming Australia's second costliest storm after Tracy. Weeks later, Cyclone Monica became one of the most intense cyclones ever recorded as it moved just off the coast of the Northern Territory, sparing major townships Cyclone George in March 2007 was a large category 5 storm that struck near Port Hedland in northwest Western Australia state, causing three deaths and widespread flooding. Cyclone Olivia in April 1996 generated a wind gust of 408 km/h on Barrow Island off the Western Australian coast - a world record.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/02/idINIndia-54584120110202?

[knocker]

Yes I heard mention of 933hpa around an hour ago.

edit: just heard it is 930hpa according to abc.

That would seem about right.

[donna-m]

Good some people keeping there spirits up,my thought are with them all

i'll stick to my english weather

http://justin.tv/cycloneyasi

this is a live ink up

[milkmaid]

i've been following it on this link it's the news

http://www.abc.net.au/news/abcnews24/

makes our winds that we are expecting tomorrow look patetic

[J07]

The Cairns airport aviation forecast has sustained winds of 100kt and gusts of 140kt!

[Coast]

Sorry, this is a long one but relevant and contains some updated, on the ground information:

Yasi already causing damage in Innisfail

Cyclone Yasi has begun to batter towns and cities across north Queensland, tearing down trees and damaging houses about five hours before the eye of the storm is expected to cross the coast. Innisfail Mayor Bill Shannon said he had already seen the roof torn from a building near the council chambers where 500 people are sheltering. "The eye is five hours away and it's already causing damage so it's pretty worrying," he said. Cassowary Coast councillor Ross Sorbello, a Tully resident, said trees had been torn down in nearby El Arish and Cardwell. "We're just hoping and praying we can all get through the night," he said. "The winds are probably getting up to 100 kilometres an hour which is worrying when we are this far out (from the eye)." Wind gusts of 285km/h have been detected near the eye of the cyclone and the bureau has warned of a dangerous storm tide and "battering waves" south of the cyclone centre.

Emergency authorities have found crisis accommodation for residents who were this afternoon temporarily turned away from evacuation centres in Cairns, according to a spokesman for Mayor Val Shier. “We had buses to take them to evacuation centres where there was spare capacity,†he said. “There was also spillover centres opened so that everybody who turned up to a centre has been accommodated.†Some of these spillover centres are school halls and the spokesman said everybody was now inside a shelter. “It is not safe to drive anywhere. It is not safe to go outside. Wherever you are now, you should shelter there for the next 24 hours,†he said. People seeking refuge from the effects of Yasi were earlier turned away at the entrance to jammed evacuation shelters as the monster storm bore down on north Queensland.

Authorities have recorded wind speeds of 295km/h and warned that storm surges of up to 7 metres could hit Cardwell, between Townsville and Cairns, as the cyclone’s expected arrival late tonight combines with a high tide. The life-threatening system is forecast to cross the coast near Innisfail, with furious winds, torrential rain and floods adding to Queensland’s massive damage bill from natural disasters this summer. Cairns residents were told around lunch time that all seven of the city’s cyclone shelters were full and people should stay where they were and batten down. “Some areas are already experiencing strong wind gusts up to 125km/h which will increase throughout the afternoon and evening,†Cairns Regional Council said in a statement. Scores of people were seen this afternoon waiting wait in the open outside evacuation centres, hoping and praying police would relent and squeeze them in before the storm’s arrival.

At a shopping centre which serves as a shelter in Cairns, Selwyn Hughes stood with his family in the uncovered carpark and said his only comfort for the moment was in numbers. “There are so many of us here. Surely they have to do something, find somewhere safer to move us to before it arrives,†he said, squatting on a pink suitcase with his five children, aged two to 13. The family’s only possessions were a small box of food, including a tin of powdered milk, and clothes and a pram for two-year-old daughter Minoota. Around them, 80 others sat on the ground and shared advice or sympathy.

At a steel barrier gate, four police guarded entry to a ramp up to a cinema complex being used as a rooftop entry point to the makeshift cyclone shelter, as grey clouds swirled and winds whistled over fences and rooftops. "It's making it very difficult. We're disappointed we can't take any more people in, but I've been through in there and it's just not safe," said acting police inspector John Bosnjak. Inside, more than 2000 people lay in front of shuttered shops and food courts, or sat on empty tables, while children played on moving walkways. Around 30,000 people in low-lying suburbs evacuated their homes and many poured into the centres when doors opened early this morning, or bunkered down in the homes of friends at the urging of the government, helping ease the strain on shelters. Others joined a stream of traffic heading south.

At 8pm, the severe category-five cyclone was estimated to be 135 kilometres east northeast of Innisfail and 165 kilometres east southest of Cairns. It was moving west southwest at 26 kilometres per hour. Strong wind gusts have been recorded in Townsville, strengthening from 74km/h at 6pm to 89 km/h at 7pm. Yasi is expected to hit around Innisfail about midnight tonight. The bureau’s track map shows it could, however, make landfall as far south as Cardwell or just south of Cairns. A cyclone warning remains in place for coastal and island communities from Cape Flattery to Sarina, extending west across the tropical interior to the Northern Territory border, amid fears the large storm will pose a serious threat to lives and property in the region.

Queensland Premier Anna Bligh said this afternoon all movement should now cease and people should take cover. “The time for movement and evacuation has now passed,†she said this afternoon. "People should be sheltering in place wherever they are." Ms Bligh said 10,680 people were now sheltering in evacuation centres. She said 4000 people had also registered their locations with authorities, allowing relatives and friends to be reassured about their whereabouts and safety. At 2pm local time, Ms Bligh said wind gusts were being recorded at 290km/h. “The system has now moved into the zone covered by the Cairns radar system,†she said. Ms Bligh said the bureau continued to hold grave concerns about the strength of the system for some time after it crossed the coast.

Inland towns will be hit tomorrow, with Cyclone Yasi expected to remain at a category-three intensity when it arrives at Georgetown, 450km west of Cairns, at 7am. State disaster co-ordinator Ian Stewart said those sheltering in their homes should take care. He said residents who took precautions as requested would reduce their risk of injury or death. Mr Stewart urged people to look after their families and neighbours, saying emergency workers would also have to stay in positions of safety until weather conditions abated. He said a judgment would have to be made about whether to respond to triple-zero calls reporting life-threatening emergencies during the cyclone, as emergency workers would also be putting their lives at risk. “People have to understand that at some point it becomes too dangerous to be out and about,†Mr Stewart said.

Mr Stewart said Cardwell could experience a storm surge of 6.5 to 7 metres above the normal high tide, and lives were at stake. As a result, waves as high as 12m are predicted to hit the north Queensland coast putting tens of thousands of oceanfront and low-lying homes in Cairns and Townsville at risk of inundation. Weather Channel meteorologist Tom Saunders said a storm surge was caused by winds at the centre of the cyclone pushing the ocean on to coastline, while the low pressure in the atmosphere caused the sea level to rise. "It's not like a tsunami, it's not like one massive wave, it will just gradually rise up as the cyclone approaches and on top of that you will have huge waves because the swell is so big," he said.

Earlier today, Cyclone Yasi was upgraded to a category five cyclone, surpassing the size and destructive intensity of cyclones Larry and Tracy. “Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi is a large and very powerful tropical cyclone and poses an extremely serious threat to life and property within the warning area, especially between Cairns and Townsville,†the Bureau of Meteorology said this afternoon. “During the evening, the very destructive core of Cyclone Yasi will cross the coast between Cairns and Ingham, accompanied by a dangerous storm tide south of the cyclone centre.â€

Coastal residents within the warning area, and particularly between Cairns and Proserpine including the Whitsundays, have been warned to expect an “extremely dangerous sea level riseâ€. “Damaging winds with gusts to 90km/h are currently affecting the coast and islands, and are forecast to spread into the tropical interior overnight and west to Mt Isa during Thursday,†bureau advice at 6pm said. “Between Port Douglas and Ayr these winds will become destructive with gusts in excess of 125km/h developing during the couple of hours, spreading into the eastern tropical interior overnight. Very destructive winds with gusts up to 290km/h are expected to develop between Cairns and Ingham during the evening as the cyclone approaches and crosses the coast. These very destructive winds will also occur to the north of the cyclone and affect the Atherton Tablelands. “Due to the large size of the cyclone, people in the path of the very destructive winds are likely to experience these conditions for about 3 to 4 hours.â€

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/yasi-already-causing-damage-in-innisfail-20110201-1acgp.html?from=smh_sb

[peterf]

the ABC link is addictive viewing.

[Iceberg]

100 km/hr winds now being recorded onshore and stations away from centre(i.e pressure down to 975mb only) recorded max winds upto 95kts and winds above 100 km'hr for around the 10 hr mark.

There doesn't seem to be any weakening of the system and Australia looks to be going to get hit by possible the strongest cyclone in the last 100 years, certaintly on of the top 5.

This is taken from the JWTC "MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 38 FEET"

I heard as well going on from Coasts post that the centres that have been set up are full and many ten's of thousands have yet to get to safety, also that everyone is now saying it's too late to move and attempting to get anywhere now will risk you being stuck in the open where your safety will be at extreme risk...

[Iceberg]

Looks to be making a bee line for cardwell to me going off Cairns radar...

[Iceni]

Aussie surfers will think it's Christmas and Easter.

My nephew (who lives in Sydney) is visiting/helping his great aunt and cousins in NQ who were flooded — I'm wondering what they can do as the safest place would be the ground floor, but I think it was flooded, so god knows — stay safe, guys.

Edited February 2, 2011 by Iceni

[BornFromTheVoid]

Thanks for the link yesterday Iceberg.

Yasi closing in now

[peterf]

christ this is scary

[Beverley Lass]

Thanks, I keep coming back to the ABC news link.

Talk of 180 mph + winds. Yikes !

BL

[toggerob]

Heard one report that the islanders on Palm Island have been left behind, having decided to ride this storm out as the last of the ferrys made a last-minute dash back to the mainland before Yasi hit earlier yesterday. Homes and emergency sheelters of the aborigionals are barely above the projected swell height, so it'll be a close call for these islanders.

[knocker]

Latest from Google.

[Liam J]

Yasi is heading straight for my brothers location at Tully, worrying times

the eye may go right over him on its current path

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR192.loop.shtml#skip

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Lots of lightning on here! http://www.justin.tv/cycloneyasi#

[Buzzit]

Extremely nasty !

[Iceberg]

The eye should make landfall in approx 60-90 mins time, the eye is still in pretty good shape.

Should make landfall in the north of Cardwell bay approx 150km south of Cairns.

Winds and tides will funnel the waters up into the bay though so max storm height of 50ft above normal sea-level is possible here. Considering that Cardwell is a boaty area I am sure their will be lots of pictures of boats being dump half a mile or so inland

[r_dancing]

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/tc-yasi-1

Live cam from Townsville

[Iceberg]

Yasi is heading straight for my brothers location at Tully, worrying times

the eye may go right over him on its current path

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR192.loop.shtml#skip

Yep I think it's fair to say that Tully we get a possible eye wall pass with the full 250+km/hr winds.

[mattyray]

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/yasi-over-ross-creek