Australian Weather

[Summer Sun]

 

 

[Chris W]

A supercell with cricket ball-sized hail and a tornado hit Sydney yesterday - Bondi Junction and Cornell (sp.?) were hit according to radio reports.

[Styx]

Heatwave in South Australia on track to break a December record for duration of days over 40C in Adelaide.

Adelaide 42.9C today and 41.1C yesterday. The two day forecast is for 42 and 43. There have only been 3 other occasions with a triple 40C spell in December ( records since 1887 ). The annual average is 4, so its got that in one go.

Very severe fire weather in South Australia and Victoria this weekend as winds pick up ahead of cooler change. Temperatures moving into the 40s throughout Victoria inclusive of Melbourne ahead of that.

Christmas Day looks like another surge of extreme heat in the south-east.

 

 

Edited December 17, 2015 by Styx

[Chris W]

That airmass is on its way to us for Sunday/Monday, Christchurch could reach mid-thirties.  Must be scorching in Vic/NSW/Tas right now!

[Styx]

Sort of. These are the 5pm readings from today.

I've circled the area of extremely high temperature that go well beyond the December averages. It's been like this for approximately  three days there. It's not a massively extensive heatwave, but still a major one. On the weekend that area of very high anomaly will be stretching right across Victoria and Tasmania and southern NSW.

Saturday will be the hottest day. Adelaide's forecast for Saturday has been upped to 44C - very close to the December record ( 44.2 in 1904 ). One of the major centres has to give this summer with the way things are going - it may as well be Adelaide. In February last year they managed a monthly heat record and in December 2013 got close  ( 43.4C ). Climate is turning decidedly arid there.

Enjoy your heat when you get it, with compliments

 

 

Edited December 18, 2015 by Styx

[Styx]

43.2C in Adelaide this afternoon ending an unprecedented 4 day run of 40C+ for December. It was a 6 day period exceeding 35C+, achieved in only one other December. Up to the 19th December ( today ) Adelaide is running at almost 6C above the average for mean maximum.

Hottest December days in Adelaide ( records since 1887 ):

1. 44.2...1904

2. 43.9...1931

3. 43.4...2013

4. 43.2...2015 ( 19th )

5. 42.9...2015 ( 17th ) 

 

Scattered heat records for December today in southern South Australia and in Southern Victoria.  South Australia's high today was 47.2C - not a state record but a record for that particular location. In Melbourne 41.2C, but fringe city locations in outer suburbia and in rural environments had 43s and 44s. Geelong ( 50 miles to Melbourne's south-west near the coast ) reached 44.5C, a December record. There were others. Tasmania's high was 36.7C but Hobart had seabreezes and 25C. Nothing historically noteworthy for us.

This is the 5pm temperature record from today, in most cases the peaks occurred earlier.

 

 

 

Edited December 19, 2015 by Styx

[Styx]

Christmas day forecast. I have a lot of time on my hands right now...

I have included the anomaly from usual December values.

Hobart's 32C if reached will make it the hottest Christmas day since 1945 ( 34.3C ). That's the all time Christmas high.

[knocker]

Cheers Styx

A bit of a way down the line the gfs is looking at some extremes for New Year.

[Styx]

18 minutes ago, knocker said:

Cheers Styx

A bit of a way down the line the gfs is looking at some extremes for New Year.

 

Good grief yes...needed a few moments to work out how to put a number on those F anomalies. But those temperatures are well into the 40s across the southern section of the continent - again. Very dangerous. Something to keep an eye as we get closer.

[Styx]

Major bushfire burning behind holiday seaside towns on Victoria's south coast ( 75-100 miles to Melbourne's south west ). Several homes lost and dozens more about to be impacted. There seems to be an orderly evacuation in place, and the seafront will always provide a refuge. 

It's been a hot Christmas in the south east of the country ( compared to normal December values ). Hobart's 36.0C ( 16C above average )  is a Christmas day record for us. A stormy, cooler change developing overnight into tomorrow. There may be up to 20mm in it, hopefully more.

 

Edited December 25, 2015 by Styx

[Styx]

MAJOR temperature drop for us, from 36.0C yesterday to 14.9C maximum at 357pm today! The 21C turnaround in daily maximum temperature probably hasn't been matched since the 1988 record ( a 24 degree decline from one day to the next ). Steady rain all morning with 15mm and it was a cloudy afternoon with a cold SW wind. Another dry month but not by a huge amount after today's contribution.

The Victorian bushfires burnt down 113 homes at last report, bringing the summer toll to near 250 homes across Australia this season in three major events across three states. 15-20mm fell in the bushfire area enough for firefighters to gain the upperhand. 

[Styx]

Hope the new year is good - satisfactory for everyone. The annual temperature charts are in.

I notice that 1910 has been removed as the initial year of records. A very recent development and something that might be worth getting a background explanation on?  I posted the annual chart for 2014 twelve months ago, so 1910 hasn't exactly disappeared; it was a below average temperature year. For 2015, significant heat months were February ( second warmest ), October ( massive record ), November ( warmest - made an error on that one in a previous post  ) and December ( fifth warmest ).  

A cool autumn and a cold winter dragged Tasmania down statistically speaking but what a great winter, especially the end of it. For 2015, significant months were October ( second warmest ) and December  ( warmest on record ). August ( third coldest ), capping off the sixth coldest winter.

 

Rainfall was close to average across Australia in 2015 with no state being remarkably wet or dry. 

Edited January 1, 2016 by Styx
correction on stats

[Styx]

I have an update on my above post courtesy of the BOM. I like to get the major facts right in my posts so I don't end up contradicting myself if I use specific information in the future!  ( I have a lot of fun doing this too.. )

The graph with the 1911 start date comes from the automated AWAP dataset, which is used to produce climate maps and trend graphs. The ACORN-SAT data begins in 1910,  the data used for that wasn't available at the turn of the month due to the holidays. There has been no change in how historical information is presented. I think I get this but won't elaborate in case I go off target.

Quality control procedures has reduced November from being Australia's warmest month to being the equal second warmest. The written summary which came out first said the third, yet there is only .02C between the top 3. 

Tasmania's warmest December on record, initially listed as over-riding the previous record by 0.15C, blows out to a margin of 0.56C, making it a highly significant month for a monthly anomaly in Tasmania, and jump from one record to the next. 

[Styx]

Another fire disaster in Western Australia this week, south of Perth. 140 homes destroyed including the commercial centre of a town with 2 people choosing to stay with a sad consequence.  In November fire destroyed 50 homes on the Western Australia south coast. A  very dry spring and early summer there, but this becoming  increasing common in Western Australia's southwest.

Bushfire preparedness in Australia has changed focus since 2009, being on very early evacuations rather than stay and defend your home, but some will always choose to stay and sit it out, for whatever reason. Time has seen the warning systems deployed improved ( including bushfire sirens in susceptible towns ), very regular fire updates on the website and rolling radio coverage on the ABC relaying it all and much greater accuracy in determining fire hot spots and speed and direction of fire fronts.

   

[Chris W]

Real sympathy for you guys over there Styx, it seems like a few states are having bad fires this year and I can't quite imagine the scale.  Hope it abates and the authorities keep doing a great job of evacuating and mitigating the fires, whilst catching those responsible for the deliberate starting of some of them.

[Styx]

On 13/1/2016 at 7:20 AM, Chris W said:

Real sympathy for you guys over there Styx, it seems like a few states are having bad fires this year and I can't quite imagine the scale.  Hope it abates and the authorities keep doing a great job of evacuating and mitigating the fires, whilst catching those responsible for the deliberate starting of some of them.

If February passes without incident the seasons of 2012-13 and 2013-14 would rank as being marginally worse in terms of fire area and property loss. Those years were moderately bad, but this summer still has half way to go.

History puts 1938-39 ( Victoria ), 1967 ( Tasmania ), 1982-83 ( Victoria and South Australia ) and 2009 ( Victoria ) as being off the scale in comparison to every other year in terms of life and property losses ( for example, thousands of homes lost ). 

From what I've heard,  lightning has played a big part in most of the major blazes this season.

 

[Chris W]

Yeah, I hadn't thought about strikes but that makes sense.  I just recall in the NSW fires of 2013 the authorities were blaming a number on deliberate acts.

 

Looks like some more heat moving across the eastern states this week.

[Styx]

No extreme heat in Australia this January and there doesn't appear to be a signal for a change in that weather pattern for the rest of the month. Rainfall has exceeded expectations in New South Wales, thru the drought stricken central Queensland area and in central Australia. It may even be a cooler January than average.

Tasmania now faces some major economic challenges with the lack of rainfall since the beginning of spring ( a record low total for that season and likely to be a record low spring-mid summer total  ).  Hydro electricity dam levels are now at 20% of capacity and dropping by about 1% a week. Tasmania's electricity supply is predominately Hydro generated with a small but growing wind component. A gas run power station has just been brought back on line but it is expensive to run, it can only generate about 15% of the islands needs. In 2006 an electricity cable was laid under Bass Strait to connect Tasmania up to the national grid. It too has a limit, capable of bringing in a maximum of 40% of the islands requirements. Just before Christmas a fault cut service to the line. The fault has not been diagnosed, engineers have to drag it off the ocean bed by submarine to investigate, with a timeline for repair near mid March. A near 1% p/w fall in Hydro storage until then will enforce power rationing in the state, for the first time since the 1960s.

Farming is also facing a crisis with a lack of fodder for cattle, drying up dams, and massive price spikes for farmers in water costs.

On the fire front there are dozens of scrub, grass and bush fires burning across the state ( mostly in remote areas in the usually wet west, and in the north ). There have been no extreme heat events but there's been no rain to put them out in the natural way. Could be a big problem in February in aheat/wind event. In the meantime most of the island is shrouded in haze,  it's shifting around at the whim of the prevailing wind. Horrible for people with asthma and respiratory conditions with health alerts to stay inside.

Hobart and Launceston this week ( northern Tasmania ).

   

 

Edited January 20, 2016 by Styx

[Styx]

Quote

Tasmanian bushfires: Four-day total fire ban declared as interstate crews bolster ranks

An unprecedented four-day total fire ban has been declared in Tasmania as more than 50 blazes continue to burn uncontrolled across the state.

The ban is for the entire state and will run from midnight Friday until midnight on Tuesday.

It is the first time the Tasmania Fire Service (TFS) has had to impose such a ban for so long.

TFS chief officer Gavin Freeman said he understood it would be inconvenient over the weekend.

"We just cannot afford any more fire in our environment," he said.

:ABC news:

A real sense of foreboding at present, don't recall so many threats and emergency directives coming from different directions relating to a weather situation.

The graphic below shows location of fire concentration, there are about 100 fires going. Very few summers in the past have matched this. White symbols on map are fires that have been burning for a while, blue new outbreaks, orange a watch and act advice for a nearby community.  Most fire fighting units in southern Tas have been deployed to the north. A risky strategy but fortunately current weather in the south is coolish with light winds. 

 

 

Edited January 22, 2016 by Styx

[Methuselah]

And now, it's nasty thunderstorms in the southeast, and Cyclone Stan is ripping the northwest: 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35403913

[Styx]

A rainfall recovery in Tasmania of sorts after a record dry period. Flooding rains in the north and east late last week saw numerous daily and monthly rainfall records fall.  On the western side it was drier,  minimal relief for hydro electricity storages ( 18.9% full as of yesterday, no change from the previous week ) and bushfires are still active but tamer in the west and centre. Farmers may have just got back from the precipice.  

Contrast January:

[Styx]

Perth has reasonable chance of equaling a record run of four days above 40C beginning on Sunday. Forecast maximums Sunday thru Thursday is 40, 42, 42, 41 and 39. Only other occasion of four days in a row above 40C was in February 1933.

It looks like a strong cool change will work its way across southern- south east Australia at the end of the period halting the heats progression eastward.

Edited February 5, 2016 by Styx

[Styx]

Perth equaled its all time record of four days in a row above 40C today ( records since 1897 ). It's unlikely to make it five, the forecast for tomorrow is 38.

Record for consecutive days above 40C for Australia's capital cities

Adelaide.............6 January 1908

Melbourne.........5 January 1908

Perth..................4 February 2016 and 1933

Canberra...........3 February 2009

Hobart...............2 December 1897

Sydney...............2 January 1960

Brisbane............2 February 2004

Darwin...............0

 

 

[Styx]

We have probably seen one of the weakest correlations between an El nino event of moderate or severe intensity, and widespread rainfall deficiency in southern and eastern Australia. In other words, in the last six months, it has not been as dry as was feared, and this has probably prevented the summer season from boiling over. In a couple of weeks we will have the seasonal and the six month charts from the BOM to verify.

Meantime in Tasmania the biggest talking point is when the lights will go out. Hydro electricity dams fall to 18.3% of storage as of last week, and the fault in the electricity cable which links to the mainland's secure power supply has not been pinpointed. They need to find that fault by equipment on board a vessel, cut the faulty section by submarine, bring it to the surface, fix it and reattach it - quite an engineering feat. Tasmania is about to ship in industrial sized diesel generators from overseas - massively expensive to run. This should push out an emergency situation - power runs out - closer to the winter if it doesn't rain sufficiently in the interim.        

Edited February 12, 2016 by Styx

[Styx]

Summer coming to an end, and that's it for the 40 degree days for the Australian capital cities for another season (Dec-Feb). This summer there were 16 days above 40C+ in the state capitals, double the long-term average of 8.1 days. Perth and Adelaide both had 7 and Melbourne had 2.

The long-term averages are 3.2 days in Adelaide, 2.7 in Perth, 1.2 in Melbourne, 0.4 in Brisbane, 0.3 in Sydney, 0.2 in Canberra and 0.1 in Hobart. It has never reached 40C in Darwin. The long-term average is from records which date back to the mid to late 19th century for all centres  except for Canberra which begins 1939.

^The 2014 summer of 26 days is an all time record and the 2013 summer marked the first time 6 of the 8 capital cities reached 40C in the same season, exception Brisbane and Darwin ( year of Australia's hottest summer ).

Most 40 degree days in a summer

Adelaide......................13.... 2014

Melbourne..................7.......2014

Perth...........................7.......2016

Brisbane.....................3........1940

Canberra....................3........2014 and 2009

Sydney.......................3........1926

Hobart.......................2........1898