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The Midlands - Cold Spell Discussion Part 20


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Posted
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl

Don't think I've heard of a "violent" wintry shower before, but I'll take that! 8)

But yes, March can produce some fairly decent thunderstorms provided the upper air associated with a trough is cold enough to allow good cloud top height. Although moisture can be rather low if we were to be under a NW'erly flow as you've described, the sun's strength at this time of year, moreso towards late March, can offset this, and result in beautiful cloudscapes surrounded by clear blue skies. 2008 was the last occurance of a thunderstorm in March for here, albeit of the weak variety.

My favourite period of the year tends to be around spring, particularly May, as the contrast in the temperature profile between the surface and upper air is at its greatest. Which means good conditions for hail formation in showers and thunderstorms.

LOL! I've lived on the North Sea coast for a lot of my life, I know what a violent wintry shower looks like! We need Cheshire Gap stuff as winter is turning into Spring to get them....thats where my northwesterly take on it comes from. Remember March 2008 (or 2007) was a good example.

April/May can be good for thundery showers anywhere in the country really. The sun is warm enough to start triggering them and its about then when mountains can start enhancing showers rather than killing then. Again, living in Sunderland on the north east coast was a good example of this. Watching the sferics coming off the eastern slopes of the Pennines and heading towards me.

I lived in Sunderland for 3 years (2001-2004), its a more thundery place then you would think!

I lived in Lowestoft in Suffolk for 20 years (1978-1998), lots of snow and thunder there too. Remember the all night imports from France very fondly!

My recent home of the West Midlands seems to be the least snowiest and thunderiest I've lived yet. But it seems to store it all up over time for one very exciting event over here! I'm learning that you need to patient if you live in the West Mids and you like exciting weather!

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

The outlook is very boring with High pressure staying around for some time it seems. Id rather have some excitement from SW'lys! I think we can soon become confident on no snow for the rest of January but time for some change yet however it doesnt look good and it seems we have used all the winter goodness up in December! Lets Hope February is better as it can be a very good month as well as early March before Spring starts rapidly appearing.

Disagree with rather having SW windz, would much rather have the mostly dry week coming up although tuesday may be wet, luckily not had much rain since tuesday when mild air arrived,

but yeah always looked like the best had gone, could well have had my last snow this winter on 7th Jan. I always think once mid Jan arrives cold spells wont be as effective anyway so not missing that much. Dec is by far the best month for prolonged cold, mainly due to the short days

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Disagree with rather having SW windz, would much rather have the mostly dry week coming up although tuesday may be wet, luckily not had much rain since tuesday when mild air arrived,

but yeah always looked like the best had gone, could well have had my last snow this winter on 7th Jan. I always think once mid Jan arrives cold spells wont be as effective anyway so not missing that much. Dec is by far the best month for prolonged cold, mainly due to the short days

Saying you may have had your last snow is rather silly and OTT imo. Could still see snow out to April!

Edited by Blizzards
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Posted
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl

Saying you may have had your last snow is rather silly and OTT imo. Could still see snow out to April!

Sorry...tough luck...I've booked an April like 2007! :p

(After my violent March of course!)

Edited by Gord
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Posted
  • Location: derby uk
  • Location: derby uk

Acourding to metcheck.com 300 day cfs weather march as three days of sleet 2nd 10th 19th thats the days it as for sleet nearly snow but weather is mild 3-4c not cold but not under 0c so thats a forcast that I'm pridecting for March Feb is going to be mild as well most of the time above 2c so thats my pridection of the weather for the midlands Derby area. But that could all change. But that's my fave weather but acourding to my tests on my weather station that is on the landing a old one but it pridects a mild feb and a mild march and a pretty good summer but just had a print out of the weather for nov and dec weather emates of it and we are looking like a pretty poor winter 2011/12 as if we have two bad winters. All winters for ten years are going to pretty poor with no snow at all as a friend have sent readings from his forcast from the 50's,60's,70's and the 80's/90's and it seems that we only get two bad winters then 10 years of good mild winter weather. And if we get a bad late Nov and Dec we will get a mild Feb and March. As it is reported that there is trend of mild if we get a bad late Nov and Dec as I've have had contact with Fred talbot a weather forcaster on ITV Central sometimes and he is pridecting weather no snow for the forseeable furte. more like rain or sleet but that could change but even weather from anknown weather station that I can ger acess to it is the same as metcheck's Feb March 300 day CFS weather. So what are your thoughts on this.

Edited by ajpoolshark
just changing the font, as I value my eyesight!
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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Someone please reduce the font above!!!

In response to the latest models...

*yawn*...

:lazy:

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Posted
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl
  • Location: Upper Gornal, Dudley, 205m asl

Just popped into my head that I must book myself an eye test....can't think what reminded me!

Anyway, skies have cleared nicely tonight and temperatures are everso slowly falling. Think we've seen the last double digit figure for at least a week now...possibly longer.

Strange to get a clear night with no frost after the way this winter has gone so far.

Edited by Gord
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Posted
  • Location: derby uk
  • Location: derby uk

Someone please reduce the font above!!!

In response to the latest models...

*yawn*...

:lazy:

That was from 19:25 today from metchecks CFS 300 day forcast. so and also from my weather station that is about 12 years old. As the outcome. Sorry about the font as it is for a friend of mine posted on another weather forum. But just copied and pasted it here.

feb CFS weather..docxfeb CFS weather..docx

Just popped into my head that I must book myself an eye test....can't think what reminded me!

Anyway, skies have cleared nicely tonight and temperatures are everso slowly falling. Think we've seen the last double digit figure for at least a week now...possibly longer.

Strange to get a clear night with no frost after the way this winter has gone so far.

But there is an air frost in the air in Derby area. feb CFS weather..docx

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Deary me, more boring charts on offer this morning with the high possibly sinking southwards opening up the Atlantic probably. This is certainly turning into a January to forget due to its plain boringness. :closedeyes:

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Posted
  • Location: derby uk
  • Location: derby uk

The Met Office have got us down for snow on thursday night. I am willing to fully believe that forecast and ignore any other data ;)

I'm full Igonring this as metcheck says no snow only 10-25%

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Posted
  • Location: derby uk
  • Location: derby uk

Have a look at this from metchecks 300 day CFS

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/PREMIUM/cfs.asp?MonthOf=4

and sleet in apr frist week.

And the lastest is no snow or sleet for feb or march on metchecks 300 days CFS system. So if someone can discuss what you think of this from metchecks 300 day CFS weather.

Febs forcast http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/PREMIUM/cfs.asp?MonthOf=2

March forcast http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/PREMIUM/cfs.asp?MonthOf=3

and July's one is here as well http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/PREMIUM/cfs.asp?MonthOf=7

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Have a look at this from metchecks 300 day CFS

http://www.metcheck....s.asp?MonthOf=4

and sleet in apr frist week.

that is very inaccurate, April is miles away, metcheck not the best anyway, my main thoughts, snow free for rest of January, then one of the mildest starts to Feb ever as the high sinks and opens up the atlantic with tropical maritime air

the good thing is should stay dry for at least 10 days

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Posted
  • Location: derby uk
  • Location: derby uk

I'VE just downloaded software and it is weather watcher and we might get some snow acourding to theier forcast for tonight and tomorow morning. But that is not right what do you think. And 22nd of jan we have sleet so we nearly have snow but not quite so we do have the winter coming.

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=Derby&day=5 this is derby only.

Edited by abbaman
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Posted
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)
  • Location: Madrid, Spain (Formerly Telford)

I'VE just downloaded software and it is weather watcher and we might get some snow acourding to theier forcast for tonight and tomorow morning. But that is not right what do you think. And 22nd of jan we have sleet so we nearly have snow but not quite so we do have the winter coming.

http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=Derby&day=5 this is derby only.

Metcheck is rubbish, no snow in sight for the next week, high pressure with plenty of sunshine the rest of this week with more cloud mixing into the high by the weekend.

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

Where is everyone??......kidnapped by aliens?...lol........Well, the weather might be a bit benign at the moment, so please feel free to chat away in this thread until the next wintry weather bout occurs, which it will!

Obviously this doesn't mean chatting away about the price of fish, or how bad Birmingham City FC are (lol) but if its topical to the forum, then post away! :D

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Posted
  • Location: West Malvern, West Midlands, 280m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Severe storms.
  • Location: West Malvern, West Midlands, 280m ASL

Where is everyone??......kidnapped by aliens?...lol........Well, the weather might be a bit benign at the moment, so please feel free to chat away in this thread until the next wintry weather bout occurs, which it will!

Obviously this doesn't mean chatting away about the price of fish, or how bad Birmingham City FC are (lol) but if its topical to the forum, then post away! :D

Damn and I had so much to say about fish and what they cost! :whistling:

It HAS gotten a lot colder today, well the decline began yesterday where we were, dropping down to around 4oC for the first time in ages, during the day. It was around 1.2oC when I got up this morning and it's down to 2.0oC now. There's plenty of time for more of the white stuff this winter, we must keep the faith! :smiliz19: Peeked outside and it's a clear sky so might even go below 0 tonight. The next few days do look to be fine though. I have to admit it was nice to see the sun!

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

A bit? lol. Though I suppose it was a pleasantly sunny and mostly dry day today. Had a brief light shower by around late morning- looked rather small visually, so small infact that radar imagery didn't pick it up!

I do like calm, sunny spells, it's just when these ridge/high pressure synoptics become the dominant pattern over the UK... really makes for a tedious spell of weather. Would love to see a lot more snow sometime this winter, or even into early spring, but tbh when we get to March, moreso towards the latter part of that month, or into early April, my attention is mainly focused on convective storm potential as land-based convective storm potential becomes far more likely, given the right setup.

Ah yes, April showers, brief, but to the point with all types of weather including the kitchen sink, all in the space of 20 minutes...snow, sleet, grauple, hail, thunder and lightning!...you just can't beat them!...lol

....and then, every now and again, we get something special, just like April 24th 2008 ( I think).....a early plume event, with high humidity, high CAPE, and early morning thunderstorms drifting up from the south! :D

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

If this was April onwards i would be all for the current set up but i dont like cold spells where they are dry and dont deliver nothing. By about Mid/Late March i begin to look forward to storm potential rather than snow as it becomes very short lived then if there is any.

The charts still show HP in dominance for some time. Where it goes is out to question but very little snow potential for the rest of the month imo.

Anyone saying no more snow for the rest of the winter needs to be banned. :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: derby uk
  • Location: derby uk

If this was April onwards i would be all for the current set up but i dont like cold spells where they are dry and dont deliver nothing. By about Mid/Late March i begin to look forward to storm potential rather than snow as it becomes very short lived then if there is any.

The charts still show HP in dominance for some time. Where it goes is out to question but very little snow potential for the rest of the month imo.

Anyone saying no more snow for the rest of the winter needs to be banned. :lol:

I know that but it is what god can do he formed the weather and the all the things on earth. But I'm qouteing what my 3 months weather sation says.

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