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Virtual Chases 2010


Paul Sherman

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

WOW. Amazing footage. They were way too close to those power lines. Twister that far ahead of them could easily have caused a domino effect and brought live power lines right down on them. Timmer wouldn't even have done that. The powerlines bit I mean.

That was Andy Gabrielson's encounter, Ive seen a couple of his videos and he likes to get close-up and personal..!! I really like the little figure of the 'Tinman' on the front of his car...!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

This looks a very good Set-Up for a few Tornadoes today and could easily see a Moderate Risk issued later for the 10% Tornado Risk!

Virtual Target today would be Little Rock for Lunch and then setting up in Stuttgart (Ar) as the Chase area down there is very good for a few Hundred Miles towards the Mississippi Border with flat Rice and Cotton Fields.

So best just to wait for the Supercells to roll towards you and not get involved with the Trees West of the Arkansas River.

post-24-12682151108955_thumb.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0131 AM CST WED MAR 10 2010

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE S

CENTRAL CONUS/MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...

A WEAKENING UPPER LOW OVER NEB/IA AND VICINITY WILL BE REPLACED BY A

STRONGER/COMPACT LOW SHIFTING QUICKLY ENEWD OUT OF NM AT THE START

OF THE PERIOD. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO RAPIDLY CROSS TX/OK THROUGH

THE DAY...MOVING INTO MO THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

WITH YET ANOTHER FEATURE ALOFT DIGGING SSEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN

INTO THE SOUTHWEST...THE RESULT WILL BE A LARGE AREA OF

TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERING MUCH OF THE U.S. BY THE END

OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...THE PRIMARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NEWD

ACROSS OK INTO MO THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A RELATIVELY LARGE

REGION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH

THIS LOW.

...ERN OK INTO MO/AR AND LATER INTO THE MS/TN VALLEYS...

A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER -- DEWPOINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE 50S

INTO THE LOW 60S -- COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT WARM

SECTOR DESTABILIZATION ACROSS ERN OK/AR/MO DURING THE DAY. AS THE

UPPER LOW RAPIDLY SHIFTS ENEWD TOWARD THIS AREA...INCREASING

LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT EVENTUAL STORM DEVELOPMENT --

LIKELY FROM ERN OK/SERN KS INTO SWRN MO/WRN AR INITIALLY. WITH AN

80 TO 90 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK SHIFTING ENEWD ATOP LOW-LEVEL

SLYS...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS SUGGESTS RAPID INTENSIFICATION

OF THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. WHILE STORM MODE SHOULD BECOME

INCREASINGLY LINEAR LATER IN THE EVENING...CELLULAR CONVECTION IS

EXPECTED INITIALLY...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED

TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...GIVEN LOW 60S

BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS BENEATH H5 TEMPERATURES AOB -20C.

OVERNIGHT...TORNADO THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE AS STORM MODE

BECOMES MORE LINEAR...THOUGH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL

WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT

HOURS...AS THE CONVECTION SPREADS/EXPANDS EWD ACROSS THE OZARKS AND

INTO IL/WRN KY/WRN TN/MS/AL.

...N CENTRAL OK INTO SERN KS...

LOW-TOPPED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL/N CENTRAL OK

DURING THE AFTERNOON...N AND E OF THE SURFACE LOW CENTER FORECAST TO

BE SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS OK IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE COMPACT UPPER

LOW. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING

UPDRAFTS...WHICH COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT

THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...VORTICITY-RICH

ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH STRONG STORM-SCALE ASCENT SUGGESTS THE

POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AS WELL. THREAT INVOF THE LOW SHOULD SLOWLY

DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...AS IT SHIFTS NEWD INTO MO.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROGGED TO PERSIST ACROSS

PARTS SRN LA/MS/AL AND VICINITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITHIN

REGION OF PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BENEATH BROADLY

DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SOME SEVERE/TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY

ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...TORNADO THREAT MAY

INCREASE LATE INVOF SRN AL/THE FL PANHANDLE. HERE...INTENSIFICATION

OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A VORT MAX MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE

NRN GULF DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN

INCREASE IN STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION. DESPITE MINIMAL

INSTABILITY...FAVORABLY VEERING/INCREASING FLOW WITH HEIGHT COULD

SUPPORT ROTATING CELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL.

...CENTRAL AND ERN TX...

MODELS SUGGEST THAT STORMS COULD DEVELOP EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS

PARTS OF CENTRAL/SERN TX...POSSIBLY AS FAR W AS THE HILL

COUNTRY...AS THE SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE

REGION. DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON

COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING HAIL/WIND

THREAT -- PARTICULARLY INTO E TX BY AFTERNOON. THUS...WILL EXPAND

SEVERE PROBABILITIES WWD TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL.

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

The last data I looked at was the 18z last night (the slightly limited US charts netweather make available) so I might be a bit off with this if things have changed somewhat. My virtual chase location is a little west of yours. Dews were marginal along the OK/AR border but wind profiles were amazing there. Winds were slightly backed at the surface directly east of the low and upper winds were strong and from the south west so I'd imagine there would be some nice curverd hodogrpahs in this area. I've lost all my links when my pc died earlier this year so I havn't actually confirmed that this is the case but it's interesting trying to make assumptions based on the limited data I saw :). I'd put myself somewhere on a line from Kansas(the town), Oklahoma up to Miami, Oklahoma, which are right near the AR and MO borders. Terrain is crap there but it's the place where I see the most chance of tornadoes. I played the central AR game back in 2008 and road network still kept me from the Stuttgart Tornado and I don't see an appreciable threat east of Stuttgart till late in the evening after dark where terrain is actually chaseable. I expect things to kick off in extreme east OK around 9pm. I'll not be in till later so hope I don't miss out on too much :lol:

If I do this as an actual virtual chase - I'll be in Miami for 9pm and go from there. Much easier to drop south than catch up going north..

Edited by Gorky
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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Lol

Well in an ideal world I would set-up near Fort Smith and points North of there but for the realistic choice the Chase Terrain will kill most people around there and as you know it could become a Frustrating Chase (If we were there for real) Expecting Initiation somewhere in North Eastern Oklahoma around 21-22z from the Dryline and a draping line South from there, Stuttgart would not come into play until 7-8pm (01-02z) but at least the chase might be a little more relaxed and less stressful.

Hopefully we dont get these situations in May and everything is West of I-35 :lol:

Paul S

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

Lol

Well in an ideal world I would set-up near Fort Smith and points North of there but for the realistic choice the Chase Terrain will kill most people around there and as you know it could become a Frustrating Chase (If we were there for real) Expecting Initiation somewhere in North Eastern Oklahoma around 21-22z from the Dryline and a draping line South from there, Stuttgart would not come into play until 7-8pm (01-02z) but at least the chase might be a little more relaxed and less stressful.

Hopefully we dont get these situations in May and everything is West of I-35 :lol:

Paul S

Too right with the west of I35 statement :) .. although there are the odd pockets of land in eastern OK where you can get a good view before disappearing into the forests of Arkansas (Mainly around and jsut west of I44. Saw some amazing footage of a MultiVortex wedge traversing some hill tops from the same day as the Picher-Neosha Tornados in 2008 and there wasn't a tree in sight... There is a small area immediately around and north of Miami into KS which is all farmland with grid roads from what I saw on my journey through there a few years back. It's a risk but I'll virtually chase this area :)

Edited by Gorky
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

The only concern is going to be moisture levels, they still aren't great at the moment with dews still a touch on the low side, however if we can get the moisture level up just a little more then a moderate risk is just about within the realms of possible with this set-up, shear is certainly impressive it has to be said and if we do get development of severe thunderstorms then I think given the profile tornadoes would probably arrive shortly afterwards...

Still at last we are starting to see something decent!

ps, there is a tornado watch out now for AL/MS, with a severe thunderstorm present on the backend of the storm mass moving through AL and into Florida/Georgia, could give something possibly...but the main risk comes a little later this eveing further west.

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

First Tornado Warning of the day for a storm in the TEX/AR/LA border region. Looks pretty good on radar considering it's in pretty much the worst radar hole in the entire US :girl_devil: Nice hook showing though rotational velocities are poorly defined due to the distance from the radar site and the height at which the storm is being sampled.

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Yes

NWS Wording stating they are tracking a Tornado on or near the TX/AR Border.

1st one of the day in the Warm Sector play.

Paul S

**Also Tornado Watch box recently Issued for Central Arkansas

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

AT 540 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 3 MILES

SOUTHWEST OF NEOSHO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE GRANBY...NEOSHO AND RACINE.

I think this is the first spotter confirmed tornado on the ground of the night. It's worth noting that Granby, Racine and Neosha were all hit by the Picher tornado 2 years ago. Unlucky for them, but I can only hope that given the somewhat average radar presentation of the storm, there isn't anything of that magnitude this time.

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

Another tornado reported in SW MO. The Cell heading straight for Little Rock is looking amazing right now. No ground reports yet but given this signature... you'd be surprised if it doesn't produce.

post-1731-12682674683755_thumb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Another tornado reported in SW MO. The Cell heading straight for Little Rock is looking amazing right now. No ground reports yet but given this signature... you'd be surprised if it doesn't produce.

post-1731-12682674683755_thumb.png

That looks almost classic!

Great hook as you say and wouldn't be at all surprising to see it producing a tornado.

Not a bad day considering its early March in a slight risk day, quite a few tornado warnings out over the last few hours. A very nice small teaser for the proper season. I still think there will be a big outbreak late March/early April as temps finally recover and the AO switches positive.

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR

717 PM CST WED MAR 10 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN FAULKNER COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS

NORTHWESTERN LONOKE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS

NORTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS

SOUTHWESTERN WHITE COUNTY IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 800 PM CST

* AT 715 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MARCHE...

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

LITTLE ROCK AIR FORCE BASE...

VILONIA...

EL PASO...

&&

watching lightning on this live stream

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Pretty Happy with my Virtual Chase Target of Little Rock to Stuttgart for yesterday. If we were there and seeing the Storm modes would probably have hung around near Little Rock, but due to the lateness of the Storms would not have seen much if anything and would have to rely on Lightning lighting up the Tor's in Central Arkansas.

Quite a few Injuries it seems from these Supercells and many Houses destroyed or damaged.

Paul S

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

Quite a few tornadoes up in the SW MO were reported last night at the time but not seen much evidence of that today in reports. I've seen photos of a few tiny needle funnels and the like but wouldn't be surprised if a few were Sheriffnados :) Everything seemed to be TOR warned up that way at one point but I've noticed the Springfield office tends to be quite liberal with their TOR warnings. Lots of chasers seemed to be playing north central OK into KS and busted pretty hard. I can only assume they preferred a negligable cold core risk vs chasing in the forest of MO but the predicted dew points never got even close to what the GFS tempted us with. 18z the day before and it was showing dews in the 56-58F region. By 12z yesterday it was showing it struggling to perhaps 54F. In reality, in extreme NE OK, the most I saw on Mesoanalysis was 44F with a pool of 46F into the Springfield MO area. That is never conducive for nice tornadoes and was way over forecast :( Had the dews been as promised, there'd have been some nasty situations through Joplin into the Springfield area, I'm sure. As it was the area escaped unharmed and the only plays were in the area with deeper moisture.

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Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

Image last night shown on Katv

tornado.jpg

thats awesome Cookie thanks for sharing...

mmm...maybe it might be best for me not to wish for this type of Twister this year :(

and Reed might after all keep his brown wedge :)

I hope these new car's in the States have fast accelerator's

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Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

5 tornado's reports in the end

2222 5 W OZAN HEMPSTEAD AR 3385 9381 TREES SNAPPED AND ONE BUILDING SUSTAINED MINOR DAMAGE WITH TREES AND POWERLINES DOWNED ON NEIGHBORING COUNTY ROADS. DAMAGE WAS REPORTED IN THE COMMUNITY OF YANCY WEST O (SHV)

0028 4 NW BENTON SALINE AR 3461 9263 APPROXIMATELY 20 HOUSES WERE DAMAGED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF ARKANSAS HIGHWAYS 5 AND 298. TREES AND POWER LINES WERE BLOWN DOWN. NO INJURIES WERE REPORTED. (LZK)

0131 COCODRIE TERREBONNE LA 2925 9066 CITIZEN REPORT OF A TORNADO AT THEIR HOME. NO DAMAGE REPORTED AT THIS TIME. REPORT RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA. (LIX)

0225 CENTER HILL WHITE AR 3527 9188 *** 1 INJ *** SO FAR...NINE HOUSES HAVE BEEN REPORTED TO HAVE BEEN DAMAGED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAYS 36 AND 305. ONE PERSON SUFFERED A LEG INJURY AND WAS TRANSP (LZK)

0305 PEARSON CLEBURNE AR 3543 9215 *** 3 INJ *** HOUSES WERE BADLY DAMAGED...AND TREES AND POWER LINES WERE BLOWN DOWN. THERE WERE THREE MAJOR INJURIES REPORTED. THE TIME OF THE EVENT WAS ESTIMATED FROM (LZK)

largest hail was Baseball size

2320 275 3 NW DELIGHT PIKE AR 3406 9354 HAIL COVERED THE GROUND. SOME HAILSTONES WERE AS BIG AS BASEBALLS. (LZK)

Edited by dogs32
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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

Tornado warnings are flying at the moment in Florida. Was a nice storm with a massive hook in Osceola county. The storm is splitting at the moment but has a chance of the left split reforming in the heavily populated coastal area if it's quick, before heading out to sea.

Also, I noted that there has been an update to the Clebourne County tornado last night, and sadly, there was 1 fatality with that storm. Given it's appearance, I guess that's somewhat lucky.. but depressing all the same..

post-1731-12683390173655_thumb.png

Edited by Gorky
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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Wow :winky: Saturday "Could" get Interesting in the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Pretty Strong wording for 4 days out from the SPC

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0352 AM CDT WED MAR 17 2010

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE

LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS...

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A

FAIRLY GOOD LIKELIHOOD THAT A STRONG AND INTENSIFYING SHORT WAVE

IMPULSE WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GULF COAST

REGION BY SATURDAY...BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC

SEABOARD LATE THIS WEEKEND. GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE GULF

OF MEXICO...AND THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS

ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER SYSTEM...MOISTURE RETURN TO A STRONGLY

SHEARED WARM SECTOR IS BECOMING A BIT LESS OF A CONCERN. THE

MAGNITUDE OF THE MOISTENING MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT MID

50S+ F DEW POINTS PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SIGNIFICANT

SEVERE THREAT...EVEN IF THE FORCING DOES NOT BECOME AS STRONG AS

CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY THE 17/00Z ECMWF. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD STILL

EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES...BUT IF THIS ECMWF RUN

COMES CLOSE TO VERIFYING...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE

AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...MODELS INDICATE THAT A MORE

PROGRESSIVE...ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL EVOLVE. BUT...THE SPREAD

AMONG THE GUIDANCE CONCERNING EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS

BECOMES QUITE LARGE.

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Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

Wow :D Saturday "Could" get Interesting in the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Pretty Strong wording for 4 days out from the SPC

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0352 AM CDT WED MAR 17 2010

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE

LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS...

THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A

FAIRLY GOOD LIKELIHOOD THAT A STRONG AND INTENSIFYING SHORT WAVE

IMPULSE WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GULF COAST

REGION BY SATURDAY...BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC

SEABOARD LATE THIS WEEKEND. GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE GULF

OF MEXICO...AND THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS

ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER SYSTEM...MOISTURE RETURN TO A STRONGLY

SHEARED WARM SECTOR IS BECOMING A BIT LESS OF A CONCERN. THE

MAGNITUDE OF THE MOISTENING MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT MID

50S+ F DEW POINTS PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SIGNIFICANT

SEVERE THREAT...EVEN IF THE FORCING DOES NOT BECOME AS STRONG AS

CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY THE 17/00Z ECMWF. CONSIDERABLE SPREAD STILL

EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES...BUT IF THIS ECMWF RUN

COMES CLOSE TO VERIFYING...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL PROBABLY INCLUDE

AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED STRONG TORNADOES.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...MODELS INDICATE THAT A MORE

PROGRESSIVE...ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL EVOLVE. BUT...THE SPREAD

AMONG THE GUIDANCE CONCERNING EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS

BECOMES QUITE LARGE.

somthing to watch for sure

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

They kept the wording for the Day 3 outlook I see. The GFS is still struggling to bring the 60 degree dewpoints to the Gulf Coast and probably wouldn't justify such wording but I have yet to look at the latest ECM models. Will do so when I get home because you wouldn't need much more juice into central LA to make the difference here.

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

I keep on looking at the GFS model, and I know it's FI but for 4 or 5 days now, it's been showing a trend towards a very active period with the Gulf opening up into late March and early April. The 18z today shows these starting as early as the 25th which is 6 days away, and moving into non-FI territory as far as large scale forecasting goes. Earlier runs didn't favour this day so much with less moisture forecast with more concern for the period around the 30th-31st, but in each model run, it's been remarkably consistent on the days the troughs come through, even if latitude varied a little. I'm definately expecting some noteworthy weather over the next two weeks (but then again, it is moving into April and we are overdue ;))

Hah... looking later and T384 is an absolute peach - High Risk OK/KS type setup.... if only it were sooner :) Dews at 60F dews, 70F Temps, 1004MB low over the Panhandle through western KS, Dryline west of the I35 corridor beneath the right exit of a streaming jet, Couple of thousand cape and all this at 18z with plenty more heating to come. Give me some setups like that in May and I'll be happy. This will be completely different in the morning but who cares.. I need practice wishca... errr forecasting... :D

Edited by Gorky
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