2010

[dogs32]

Sorry Pat

I should have been a bit clearer. A lot of what is being said about an active season are pointing towards later during the Storm Chase period, with indications appearing to suggest much of the better chasing activity could occur later in to May and towards June.

I leave on Tour 1 in a week and a half, and all I seemed to be reading the recent posts were 'quiet' 'quiet' 'quiet'

I suppose I'm concerned that I won't see that much

Still, you never know, and I maintain the right to utilise beginners luck, along with luck of the Irish

Harry...NO ONE can say exactly for sure how your tour is going to go....Its still to far away to make accurate forecasts..

have faith.....

Take all the above Predictions as light....because thats all they are...

Im just posting them up giving the general feel out there..

As my mother used to say..Dont count your chickens just yet..

last year was a quiet year....but I still managad to capture some excellent Supercell clouds and MCS and lightning...

With Pauls planning where the storms would be.

We where on every supercell that was availble in the Plains..

Edited April 16, 2010 by dogs32

[Paul Sherman]

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL

ACUS48 KWNS 160842

SPC AC 160842

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0342 AM CDT FRI APR 16 2010

VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...

MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY AGREE THAT A LARGE LOW/TROUGH --

INITIALLY OVER THE GULF OF AK -- SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY SEWD INTO THE

WRN U.S. WITH TIME...RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS.

MODELS ALSO AGREE...HOWEVER...THAT ONCE THIS FEATURE REACHES THE

SWRN STATES...IT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE EWD. WHILE SLY LOW-LEVEL

FLOW SHOULD INCREASE/EXPAND ACROSS THE PLAINS/CENTRAL THIRD OF THE

COUNTRY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...THE AMPLIFYING LARGE-SCALE RIDGE

ALOFT OVER THIS REGION SHOULD HINDER WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT

CONVECTION -- AT LEAST UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. WHILE OVERALL

A SLOW INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE

LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...CONFIDENCE THAT A WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT

SEVERE EVENT WILL OCCUR BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW --

THUS PRECLUDING THE ADDITION OF A THREAT AREA THIS FORECAST.

Some positives and Negatives there Harry - In other words the Models are not handling this strange Set-Up very well at all.

Paul S

[Gorky]

It's still too far out to know what the weather will bring for Tour 1. Yesterdays 12z (or it may have been the 6z), showed an amazing setup from the 28th through 30th in deep FI (5000+ Cape with breakable cap in Texas on the 28th!). Todays shows a fast moving system with 1 day of possible action up north followed by a ridge till the 1st. The next run will probably be completely different too. It's fun to make guesses based on the current models but rarely ends up correct until you are less than a week away

Edited April 16, 2010 by Gorky

[Harry]

Cheers guys!

I shall not lose sleep just yet then :ph34r:

lol

[nsrobins]

Some differences in timing it seems but there's a tangible severe threat again Thurs/Fri this week (29th/30th) with moisture return recovering each cycle.

Right now I'd be mildly optimistic if I was in the first few chase teams.

[MAF]

this is what the Storm Prediction Center have to say

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0228 AM CDT MON APR 26 2010

VALID 291200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...

SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES PERSIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF -- EVEN AS

EARLY AS DAY 4 /THU. APR. 29/ -- IN TERMS OF EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF

THE WRN TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. AS A RESULT OF THESE

DIFFERENCES ALOFT...THE FASTER GFS MOVES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SRN

PLAINS BY THE END OF DAY 4 /12Z FRI. APR. 30/...WITH THE BOUNDARY

EXTENDING FROM ERN MO SSWWD ACROSS CENTRAL AR...WRN LA...AND THEN

SWWD ALONG THE TX COAST. MEANWHILE...THE SLOWER ECMWF DEPICTS THIS

FRONT CROSSING WRN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT...EXTENDING

FROM CENTRAL KS SSWWD ACROSS WRN OK AND INTO THE TX BIG BEND REGION

BY THE END OF DAY 4.

WHILE THESE DIFFERENCES PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF ANY OUTLOOK AREAS

BEYOND DAY 4...ATTM WILL RE-INTRODUCE AN AREA FOR DAY 4...CENTERED

ON SERN KS/OK/N TX. WHILE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE

SUBSTANTIAL...AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT A RETURN OF DECENT GULF MOISTURE

NWD ACROSS OK WILL OCCUR...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO AMPLE

DESTABILIZATION. WHILE STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WRN KS/WRN OK/WRN N

TX DURING THE AFTERNOON WOULD LIKELY BE TIED MORE TO THE SYNOPTIC

COLD FRONT ACCORDING TO THE GFS ...THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT A DRYLINE

SHOULD MIX EWD TO A SIMILAR LOCATION -- PROVIDING SOME CONFIDENCE IN

THE LOCATION OF THE PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. GIVEN

THAT FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR

SUPERCELLS...CONFIDENCE IS SUFFICIENT TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA OF

ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL.