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My Winter Forecast 2009-10


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Right! before we go any further:

Everyone has the right to forecast whatever winter they like...But, petty, churlish insults are unnecessary, unedifying and a waste of time...Say what you want to say, by all means, but say it politely...PLEASE!!! :)

If you don't know how, visit the Grammarians' thread?? :)

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

Which charts are they backtrack?

Sorry Paul, not been online lately. This chart suggests a chilly December, unless it's changed since it was posted.

http://www.cpc.ncep....uT2mMonNorm.gif

Edited by Backtrack
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Posted
  • Location: Blackburn, Lancs
  • Location: Blackburn, Lancs

That's a brave prediction Solar, I would like to know your reasoning for believing that the jet will take a southerly course. A strong jet in the christmas pudding goes hand in hand with a northerly track, the PV, the SE (US) ridge and pressure high in the Azores/Europe.

The jet has been taking a southerly direction for 3 years running now Ian, As Blast as stated, it can only go so far north before tracking south again. This is all part of a natural cycle, governed by solar and lunar activity. Off course we will have to wait until spring, to see who was on the money! Looks like the PV is already behaving differently to the even larger teapot theory Ian!

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

That's a brave prediction Solar, I would like to know your reasoning for believing that the jet will take a southerly course. A strong jet in the christmas pudding goes hand in hand with a northerly track, the PV, the SE (US) ridge and pressure high in the Azores/Europe.

Are you saying there has been a fundemental shift and say a 63 or 47 or even 86 or 87 is very unlikey to occur again.

whats odds would you give for a real cold winter in the 'christmas pudding' ?

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

Something I don't quite understand:

Why does Ian Brown's winter forecast create so much ill-feeling,

I think it goes beyond the forecast and it is more to do with the person.

The problem is Pete, is that Ian has burnt so many bridges that it has become hard to separate the person from "the troll."

4 years ago whilst posting with some respect on this site he was posting under an alias on theweatheroutlook forum called "Melanie". His posting on that site served only one purpose and that was to cause ruptions. Now why do that?

Harping on about the christmas pudding is another point, why harp on about it?

Evading legitimate questions.

Comments like no one has produced more accurate long range forecasts than me comes across as arrogant and trumpet blowing.

Calling other forecasters fantastists and cranks, when in fact, they are rank amateurs themselves.

They do not help matters.

Edited by Mr_Data
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

In many ways I agree, Mr D...I also find his constant insertions of 'the Modern Era' irritating; as, in itself, it explains nothing!

But, having said that, there's still no excuse for downright rudeness...As, at the end of the day, only future events will dictate how much egg ends-up on whoever's face it ends-up on... :(

And, it's my firm belief that LRFing (for three-plus months' periods) is, as it stands, more to do with faith, hope and charity than with science?? :(

Edited by Pete Tattum
Removal of tautology!
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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

As we are looking at an El nino winter it does ramp things up to seeing more SW-ly normally in december.

Anyway interesting forecast and it does reminds me of the late 80`s

But anyway a couple of 00 charts which were El nino winters in december,which gave easterly snow. :(

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2000/Rrea00120001225.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2002/Rrea00120021211.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

2000/01 was a decaying La Nina winter not an El Nino winter.

Although the December 2002 easterly delivered snow to a select few, I remember it for persistent stratocumulus trapped under an inversion and temperatures of 5C- very little of that really cold air which gave Moscow an exceptionally cold December managed to make it over to Britain.

The El Nino winter of 1997/98 managed to deliver a snowy easterly for southern areas around the 16th/17th December 1997, but in Scotland and northern England it was much the same story as in December 2002- cloudy and 5C.

However, 1986/87 was also an El Nino winter and most of us know what happened around the 11th-14th January...

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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

Thanks for correcting me there TWS what made me think 2000 was. :(

1997 december looks a similar type sinking high to 2002,but it still gave 3inches of snow and there were easterly gales and drifting so I won`t complain about that. :(

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1997/Rrea00119971217.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.

In many ways I agree, Mr D...I also find his constant insertions of 'the christmas pudding' irritating; as, in itself, it explains nothing!

But, having said that, there's still no excuse for downright rudeness...As, at the end of the day, only future events will dictate how much egg ends-up on whoever's face it ends-up on... :(

And, it's my firm belief that LRFing (for three-plus months' periods) is, as it stands, more to do with faith, hope and charity than with science?? :(

Melanie,nice name though :(

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

Time to lock this one now I think, Ian's made his forecast and come March 2010 we'll know how it's gone. Until that point I don't think there's any mileage in continuing the debate going in the way it has been recently.

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Posted
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL
  • Location: Upper Tweeddale, Scottish Borders 240m ASL

Yes, it's a good clear forecast and the conversation was going well until it was spoilt by a few.

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