Chase 2009 - Day 33 Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

Well It looks like the last Chase Day for 2009 in a Very Challenging Year with Little Reward for Tornadoes (3 Brief) But we are hoping to go out on a High and it's Aaron's Birthday as well! So will start and probably end up at Fredericksburg for a Birthday knees Up before travelling back towards DFW On Friday.

...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...

MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE

CONTINUING PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE LOWER

RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHERE MID-LEVEL INHIBITION APPEARS LIKELY TO

REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AS WELL. THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN MODEL

GUIDANCE THAT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL

STREAM COULD CONTRIBUTE TO STORM DEVELOPMENT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN

OF MEXICO BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN

TEXAS COASTAL AREAS BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. LOW-LEVEL FLOW

FIELDS ARE PROGGED TO BE WEAK...BUT AN EASTERLY COMPONENT BENEATH

MODEST WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR

ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.

Paul Sherman

[NL]

SPC take on what they expect today..

...CNTRL/S TX...

TAIL-END OF A FRONT...ATTENDANT TO THE DEPARTING UPR TROUGH TO THE

E...WILL EXIST ACROSS THE UPR TX CST WWD INTO THE CNTRL EDWARDS

PLATEAU REGION. ALONG/S OF THE FRONT...SFC DEW POINTS IN THE UPR

60S TO LWR 70S WILL BE COMMONPLACE AND PRESENCE OF 7.5+ DEG C/KM

H7-H5 LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. WEAK

SUB-TROPICAL PERTURBATIONS/MODEST MID-LVL FLOW ATOP ESELY UPSLOPE

LLVL FLOW WILL BOOST UVV/DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT MULTICELL TSTM

CLUSTERS AND ISOLD SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE

THE PRIMARY SVR THREATS AS STORMS MOVE ESEWD THROUGH THE INSTABILITY

AXIS INTO LWR VLY.

[NL]

Spc update has the slight risk in Texas further south and the tornado chances less than 2% throughout the consus.

...RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND SW TX...

A LARGE MCS IS WEAKENING AND MOVING OFF THE LOWER TX COAST THIS

MORNING...IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIOR MCS WHICH IS NOW OVER THE E/SE

GULF OF MEXICO. THE NET EFFECT OF THESE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS HAS BEEN

TO REDUCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER S

TX...AND IT APPEARS THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THIS

AREA AS A RESULT. FARTHER NW...LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE N OF

THE STALLED FRONT AND ASCENT WITH WEAK SPEED MAXIMA EJECTING NEWD

FROM NRN MEXICO WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SUPPORT

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS W/SW TX. MODEST

DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG COULD

AGAIN SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS

BEFORE CONVECTION WEAKENS BY EARLY TONIGHT.

[Andy Bown]

Well It looks like the last Chase Day for 2009 in a Very Challenging Year with Little Reward for Tornadoes (3 Brief) But we are hoping to go out on a High and it's Aaron's Birthday as well! Paul Sherman

Paul, it's time for you to do the tv programme classic of getting what you want at the last opportunity :lol: ! :lol:

[AudMun]

Well It looks like the last Chase Day for 2009 in a Very Challenging Year with Little Reward for Tornadoes (3 Brief) But we are hoping to go out on a High and it's Aaron's Birthday as well! So will start and probably end up at Fredericksburg for a Birthday knees Up before travelling back towards DFW On Friday.

With some luck you can finish on a high today.

Even if nothing happens though there are worse places to be. Fredericksburg certainly used to have a good Chili's so have a great birthday Aaron.

[NL]

SPC have updated storm risk chances... not much change to the SW Texan risk just a risk extension to the east of US.

...SWRN TX AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE N OF STALLED FRONT IN MEXICO...PLUS

COMBINATION OF WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SRN JET STREAM AND

DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SWRN

TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWER 3 KM AND

MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG WOULD SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL

AND STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.

[Nick F]

We're on the move towards Del Rio on the Rio Grande/Mexican border, just left Fredericksburg. Hopefully we will find storms fiiring in the area or moving out of Nern Mexico. Chance of big hail and gusty winds again.

[Ross B]

Good luck and watch you dont get shot

[NL]

Fingers crossed for something special, maybe another tower to tower for you Nick... ...

Anyway good luck on what has been an enjoyable 2009 stormchase even with the lack of

tornadoes the electrical storms have been awesome.

Gonna be roasting down in Del Rio with temps into the mid 30's celsius..!!! heres the sounding

for Del Rio for 1800hrs UTC

[Nick F]

Good luck and watch you dont get shot

We'll make sure we keep our doors locked and not look anyone in the eye down there. Bandit Country ... lol.

[AudMun]

Just don't come back with the sniffles!

[Ross B]

Or with something eating your leg lol.

[AudMun]

Or with something eating your leg lol.

[dogs32]

We'll make sure we keep our doors locked and not look anyone in the eye down there. Bandit Country ... lol.

Nick I hear that they have nice Stake down in Odessa

good luck for today

[Nick F]

Streaming may not be live for periods unfortunately, as we are going to b e headed into remote areas on the way down towards Rock Springs and Del Rio.

[MAF]

definetly bandit country then.

'noon guys

good luck for your last day

[nsrobins]

I've often wondered - what is the situation regarding crossing the border into Mexico? Is this possible?

[Tom Lynch]

I am a rootin tootin for you boys , and Paul. I hope you can get something out of today's chase . As always I will be following the chase.

Tom

[Q]

Well for the last day of the season, fingers crossed Mother Nature doesn't disappoint. It's been a ride this year, slightly low on the twisting T's, but the storms have not failed to disappoint, and the coverage has been X cell lentay

Edited May 28, 2009 by Q

[bunny1972]

i hope you catch a good storm today thanks for a great month ive been here every night my missus thinks im avin a affair lol its been great the last month av really enjoyed it thanks to all involved and hope to go chasing in next few years

[Nick F]

Change of plan, aborted going SW, now headed towards Junction currently. Visuals and sfc obs suggest moisture and convection is better in this area rather than towards Del Rio which is clear blue skies, got lots of Tcu building around us 20 miles from Junction where we will stop and assess.

[Roger J Smith]

Team: San Angelo radar showing development in that vicinity, Menard to Brady might be the target zone later. Which reminds me, what's happened to Nathan (he had a big storm intercept last year in Brady) ... I hope Yogi Bear didn't adopt him.

NSR ... yes, you can cross into Mexico (on your passport), the situation there varies greatly from border crossing to border crossing. In almost every case, there is a large Mexican town across from a large American city, they often have the same names too although sometimes in two languages. Some of the crossings are still quite safe and you can have a day or two of a reasonably safe visit. Most of the border towns are almost as "Mexican" as Mexico so there isn't a lot of point in it nowadays.

Some places are less safe, like Ciudad Juarez across from El Paso, and Tiajuana. These are not recommended for casual tourists. As to the flu issue, that is pretty much on hold now, it seems that the first wave of the Mexican flu has come and gone with effects that were not that big a deal, now people are waiting to see if there will be a second wave in the fall and winter.

The other variable is that you must buy rather expensive Mexican auto insurance if you are crazy enough to want to drive there.

There is a lot of tourist traffic from Canada and the USA to Mexico, mostly to the resorts on the west coast and the Yucatan. This was curtailed for about three weeks during the flu scare, and now we're into the low season but these places remain one of the most popular southern winter holiday destinations.

The gang violence that you hear about in Mexico is worst in the two border cities I mentioned, plus the routes north from large cities towards the border. Some other parts of Mexico have no more drug violence than the typical North American city, so they are relatively safe.

[nsrobins]

Looks like it's bubbling away, Nick. Agree surface obs indicate firing is likely along the Juntion - Eden road. Already cells towards Abilene.

[Nick F]

Got a developing cell on the live stream about 8 miles N of us, yellow radar retur on Barons. Nice strong convection.

[Ross B]

Nice convection on the stream now, thats going up fast?