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Day 32 - Slight Risk - Sth Texas


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

We are probably going to have a change of plan and not head south, as the risk area will be too far south to drive to deep south TX. We are currently thinking of heading SW as this area will position us closer to tomorrow's risk area over SW TX. Though we will sstop for lunch in Stephenville then look at the 1700z update for day 2 from SPC, look at charts then make a decision on where to go.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Given the SPC 2 day outlook update and 12z model output for tomorrow - we will probably now head south to Fredericksburg - which is NW of San Antonio. Could be some storms south of there later, and gets us positioned to drop south of there for tomorrow's risk over Sern TX.

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

Looking very messy to the SW at the moment with the MCS dominating that region.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Thanks for posting that up NL, actually a nice cumulus field west and southwest of Fredericksburg where we are headed.

Really crisp blue skies here in Stephenville, compared to the hazy blue skies yesterday, cold front to our south has scoured some moisture away - so we now have 55F instead of 73F Td's of yeaterday. Temp a comfortable 24C instead of mid 30s of yesterday.

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Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

latest Meso Discussion issued a few minutes ago

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...SERN MO...WRN TN...SRN IL...WRN KY...SRN

IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 271849Z - 272045Z

CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN/INTENSIFY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE

MID MS VALLEY...ESPECIALLY FROM SERN MO INTO SRN IL. THIS ACTIVITY

IS EVOLVING WITHIN A VERY BUOYANT AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP LOW

LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ON THE ORDER OF 8 C/KM IN THE LOWEST 3KM...AND

MLCAPE VALUES OF ROUGHLY 2500 J/KG. LATEST VIS IMAGERY AND LONGER

RADAR LOOPS SUGGEST TWO REMNANT MCS VORT CENTERS ARE LOCATED JUST NW

OF SGF AND NEAR LIT. WITH BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED TO FURTHER

DESTABILIZE IT APPEARS A RATHER BROAD SWATH OF ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM

ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE FROM NERN AR...NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF SRN

IL/IND...PARTLY DRIVEN BY AFOREMENTIONED UPPER VORT MAXIMA...BUT IN

LARGE PART BY AFTERNOON HEATING. GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT

IT APPEARS DOWNBURSTS OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE

STRONGEST ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS REGION FOR

POSSIBLE WW.

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

Heres the RUC's take on atmospheric conditions around Fredricksberg Tx 5pm US time.

Edited by NL
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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

The cumulus field to the SW of Fredricksberg , currently in Rocksprings has started to gain

intensity, not severe by any stretch of the imagination but heading in the right direction,

up to 18,000ft and half inch hail.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Yes, can see those cells on Barons SW of Junction, still a long way to go down to the I-10, but will intercept those storms if they are still going when we get down there, we've just passed through Hamilton. Cells should move east which will give us an advantage.

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

In 30-50 mins or so those cells have grown twice in size to around 38,000ft and traveling

E/SE at around 6-12 mph, hope they keep intensifying, how far to intercept around 60-80 mile?

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Stopped in Lampasas, about 130 miles from storms near Rock Springs. Some cells popping up nearer south of Fredericksburg.

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

SPC have issued Mesoscale Discussion /watch potential for lower Rio Grande valley area, way to the south west.

296

ACUS11 KWNS 272057

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 272056

TXZ000-272200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0880

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0356 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/LOWER RIO GRANDE

VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 272056Z - 272200Z

TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS

OF EDWARDS PLATEAU AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. DESPITE MODEST

DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL

FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND. THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR

A POSSIBLE WW.

ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY

FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED FROM EDWARDS TO TRAVIS COUNTY PER 20Z

SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS. WWD-MOVING N/S-ORIENTED OUTFLOW

BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED FROM MEDINA TO JIM HOGG COUNTIES BEFORE ARCING

E-SEWD TOWARDS BRO. TO THE WEST OF THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND S OF

FRONTAL ZONE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH

DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S HAVE AIDED IN A VERY

UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE OF 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL FLOW

IS PALTRY /PER AREA VWP DATA/. HOWEVER...MODERATE HIGHER-LEVEL WINDS

MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION GIVEN THE LARGE

BUOYANCY.

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Posted
  • Location: Cumbria UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cloud 9
  • Location: Cumbria UK

Hi team

Hope you all well. I am following your daily trips with interest. If I can help anyway just shout. I liked yesterdays photos.

Tom

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Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London

LOOKS LIKE a nice Supercell in front :(

any rotation on that Tom B)

edit...that thing is huge

Edited by dogs32
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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Near Johnson City, got anvil on stream of storms to south of us south of I-10 ...

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Posted
  • Location: Cumbria UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cloud 9
  • Location: Cumbria UK
LOOKS LIKE a nice Supercell in front :(

any rotation on that Tom B)

edit...that thing is huge

Nice to hear from you Pat. Danny suggested that you send me the clip where we were nearly hit by the CG co that I can tie it in with my video to get the same strike from different angles.

Tom

Radar picture for you

post-2466-1243463788_thumb.png

Tom

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Posted
  • Location: south London
  • Location: south London
Nice to hear from you Pat. Danny suggested that you send me the clip where we were nearly hit by the CG co that I can tie it in with my video to get the same strike from different angles.

Tom

Radar picture for you

post-2466-1243463788_thumb.png

Tom

hi Tom...in the next 5 days i will post you a few data dvds...pm nearer the time...

sorry back on topic

Edited by dogs32
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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Just booking in and dumping our stuff in the Super 8 in Fredericksburg, then will head south to play with the storms NW of San Antonio. Barons shows 2" hail which is golf ball size :(

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Posted
  • Location: Cumbria UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cloud 9
  • Location: Cumbria UK
Just booking in and dumping our stuff in the Super 8 in Fredericksburg, then will head south to play with the storms NW of San Antonio. Barons shows 2" hail which is golf ball size :(

Nick

Storm Lab show cell to the north west of a town called Boerne has meso & 4" hail. It is currently moving 23 MPH in a ne direction

Tom

That cell is just to the South East of Comfort heading to the NNE .

Iwill leave you chap to go hunting and want to see those photos tomorrow.

Tom

Yes please Pat whenever you can.

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Posted
  • Location: SE London
  • Location: SE London

'nado #1

2110 2 SE MENDON MERCER OH 4065 8449 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN BRIEFLY IN A FIELD NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THOMAS ROAD AND MERCER AUGLAIZE COUNTY ROAD. (ILN)

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Posted
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms!! (With the odd gale thrown in)
  • Location: West/Central London (W11) 27m (88ft) ASL

Is the live feed down? (Or maybe they are checking in at the hotel still)??

EDIT: Just as I say that it appears!

Edited by Sno' problem
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Posted
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
Is the live feed down? (Or maybe they are checking in at the hotel still)??

Yup, i dont think they have as good a signal in Southern Texas if i remember correctly.

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