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Chase 2009 Day 20 Discussion - Tx/ok/ks


Tony Gilbert

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Posted
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire.
  • Location: Gosport, Hampshire.

Particular attention is now drawn to the region central south Kansas/ Oklahoma border. Whilst SPC currently have just 10% probability for tornadoes within this region; in reality this could be much higher. If we move away from the usual parameters for forecasting tornadoes then we can see the potential for very localised strong updraft potential with potential for strong rapid rotation at cloud base level. 850 mb strong jet has full influence. Classic but brief dynamic extension from cloud base is more than possible here!

Time window looks to be next couple of hrs with one or two cells developing along the cold front moving east. Second or third cell look to be the main producers here!

Ideal position now Medicine Lodge!

Edited by Tony Gilbert
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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

The cell in N/Texas about to cross the Oklahoma border has grown considerably in the last 30 mins

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Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

tornado watch now out..

post-1669-1242418104_thumb.jpg

TornadoWatch - 0300Z

WWUS20 KWNS 152006

SEL7

SPC WW 152006

KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-160300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 307

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

305 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS

WESTERN INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GAGE

OKLAHOMA TO 50 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF CHANUTE KANSAS. FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 305...WW 306...

DISCUSSION...EXTREME INSTABILITY IN PLACE AHEAD OF APPROACHING

SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM

DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...BOTH NEAR FRONT AND DRY LINE

OVER ERN TX PANHANDLE. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STRENGTH OF CAP

MAY SUPPORT DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EARLY EVENING...DESPITE

THE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SHOULD STORMS REMAIN DISCRETE...SLOW

SSEWD MOVING SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF

VERY LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF TORNADOES. SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONGER

WITH POSSIBLY A GREATER TORNADO POTENTIAL INTO ERN KS. OVERALL

EVOLUTION INTO A LARGER MCS...POSSIBLY COMPOSED OF SEVERAL

SMALL-SCALE BOW ECHOES SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE MID EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.

...EVANS

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

Tornado watch now in effect.

533

WWUS20 KWNS 152006

SEL7

SPC WW 152006

KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-160300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 307

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

305 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS

WESTERN INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GAGE

OKLAHOMA TO 50 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF CHANUTE KANSAS. FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

Ha beat me to it.. thats because i'm radar watching here aswell, a storm here in NE england...what..!! Aye and the team will see tornadoes too..What a great start to the weekend that would be...

Edited by NL
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Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
The cell in N/Texas about to cross the Oklahoma border has grown considerably in the last 30 mins

Its just become severe warned again...

SvrTstormWarning - 15/2100Z

WUUS54 KAMA 152007

SVRAMA

TXC357-393-152100-

O.NEW.KAMA.SV.W.0052.090515T2007Z-090515T2100Z

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX

307 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN OCHILTREE COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS

NORTHERN ROBERTS COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 306 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 21

MILES SOUTHWEST OF WOLF CREEK PARK...OR ABOUT 23 MILES NORTHWEST OF

MIAMI...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

WOLF CREEK PARK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. REMEMBER...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH

LITTLE OR NO ADVANCED WARNING. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY

AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A

BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1.

xx

LAT...LON 3631 10056 3588 10055 3583 10101 3606 10104

TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 253DEG 7KT 3598 10086

$$

SD

Ha beat me to it.. thats because i'm radar watching here aswell, a storm here in NE england...what..!! Aye and the team will see tornadoes too..What a great start to the weekend that would be...

Fingers crossed for ya mate... :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

Its all kicking off now along the C/F.

Visible satellite

Cheers Potty :lol:

Edited by NL
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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

A look at the latest hourly meso 0-3/0-1km SRH charts shows S-central KS NE up to Wern MO looks to be the best environment for tornadoes in next few hours as storms develop further SW from Kansas City down towards OK border along CF:

post-1052-1242419687_thumb.pngpost-1052-1242419697_thumb.png

Worringly Kansas City is bullseyed with highest SRH - so perhaps some tornadoes in the vicinity of the city possible.

Some big CAPE over Wern OK and towards TX Panhandle, so storms here will produce big hail, and maybe an isolated tornado too:

post-1052-1242419774_thumb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

Certainly looking very busy along that front now...

post-1669-1242422020_thumb.jpg

Good image of the skies from the chase cam...

post-1669-1242422191_thumb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

... and the team have some great chase terrain to see the storms coming - flat prairie with no trees and big vistas. Clouds seem to be shifting some too ...

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Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

Could this be a big outbreak Nick? Things seem to be exploding a bit atm..

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Could this be a big outbreak Nick? Things seem to be exploding a bit atm..

Depends on whether storms don't line out too quickly ... however, the latest RUC shows the right entrance of the jet over central KS plus hourly meso shows strong turning of winds in the same area - so could see a few or several tornadoes drop over KS and western MO in next few hours or so. Could be the best chance yet for the team to bag a tornado, if they can get a cell that has a decent strong inflow.

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Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL

first tornado warning...

TornadoWarning - 15/2215Z

WFUS54 KAMA 152129

TORAMA

TXC179-393-152215-

O.NEW.KAMA.TO.W.0003.090515T2129Z-090515T2215Z

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX

429 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AMARILLO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

NORTH CENTRAL GRAY COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...

SOUTHERN ROBERTS COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MIAMI...

* UNTIL 515 PM CDT

* AT 428 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS

TORNADO WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF CODMAN...OR ABOUT 14

MILES WEST OF MIAMI...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. TRAINED SPOTTERS

HAVE REPORTED A DEVELOPING WALL CLOUD WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

CODMAN...

MIAMI...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A

WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS

AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN

INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO

COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF YOU ARE IN MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A

SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE

NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

AT 8 0 6 3 3 5 1 1 2 1.

xx

LAT...LON 3565 10055 3545 10088 3575 10098 3583 10080

TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 317DEG 14KT 3575 10088

$$

JOHNSON

post-1669-1242423606_thumb.jpg

Wrong Strong City... :huh:

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Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
Funnel on the stream?

That's what I thought Paul.. looking at Toms gesticulations I'd say yes.. :huh:

WTG Team!!

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