Chase 2009 Day 19 Discussion

[Paul Sherman]

Having looked at the Models not really prepared to drive the 400 Miles for little reward and then put ourselves another 500 Miles out of position for Tomorrow so have decided with Tom that today will be a Visit to Greensburg and after that an overnight stay at the Days Inn @ Woodward ready for tomorrow. We still have an outside chance of WAA Hailstorms tonight as the Low Level Jet cranks up yet again.

Paul Sherman

[stevestorms]

Ok Paul, Woodward has always been lucky for us as Tom will tell you so have a good day, with only today and tomorrow we need to try real hard so a bit of a drive down to Big Springs Tx .

Steve n Martin

[Paul]

Paul's daily briefing is here - and more radar spotting too

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=...ase-video;sess=

[ian cameron]

we have now changed plan we are heading for childress as the slight risk has moved further north than earlier

[Nick F]

You guys really can't keep away from that place! How many times to Childress is that now?! You will be well known in that town now!

Anyway, might as well get down there even if it just ends up a night-time lightning fest - you will still be in range of tomorrow's risk.

[stevestorms]

Anyone out there????

[nsrobins]

Anyone out there????

'Here' or 'there'?

Thursday 14th May:

As I said earlier I reckon there's a good chance of some structure Vernon to Abilene axis from 00Z (sorry - big area I know).

The 06Z NAM looked reasonable with a surface flow convergence initiating activity in a high CAPE environment, and 15Z RUC backs this up to some extent.

[plymouthflye]

Heyyy, they've got rotation................

on a kiddies roundabout!

[NL]

we have now changed plan we are heading for childress as the slight risk has moved further north than earlier

Bet ya if it was still a 'dry' county ya's wouldn't be goin back so often!! ..

[Tony Gilbert]

Certainly some deep thought needs to go into your position for tomorrows outlook.

Today heralds a small risk of moderate hail and localised thunderstorms around Abilene or just south of Cap Rock. Though IMO tomorrows risk could go moderate for southern Kansas. All it needs is the jet to drop a little further south.

My virtual chase would see me blow out today for a good position in Pratt, Kansas! B under no illusion V2 are probably already on their way!

PS. An early thread on tomorrow is in order!

Edited May 14, 2009 by Tony Gilbert

[nsrobins]

Certainly some deep thought needs to go into your position for tomorrows outlook.

Today heralds a small risk of moderate hail and localised thunderstorms around Abilene or just south of Cap Rock. Though IMO tomorrows risk could go moderate for southern Kansas. All it needs is the jet to drop a little further south.

My virtual chase would see me blow out today for a good position in Pratt, Kansas! B under no illusion V2 are probably already on their way!

PS. An early thread on tomorrow is in order!

Yes the Vortex crowd have been doing a good job booking up all the motel space between Clovis and Springfield this last week by all acounts.

Agree a thread for tommorow's thoughts and musings is required.

[NL]

Yup, the Vortex2 crew are in large numbers because of the 'Largest ever effort in trying to understand tornadoes' which started on May10 until 13 June this year and from 1st May until 15 June next year.

http://www.vortex2.org/home/

Today they are traveling and repairing.

SPC have issued todays slight risk update with slight risk of severe weather in C/E Kansas

SPC AC 141958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0258 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2009

VALID 142000Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER PARTS

OF WRN AND NRN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN

KS...

...SRN PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING...

PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS HAVE ALLOWED FOR THE SLOW NWD

RETREAT OF SURFACE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY EXTENDING

FROM CNTRL OK SWWD TO LOW PRESSURE NEAR MAF. AIR MASS ALONG AND S

OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS RELATIVELY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...ENVIRONMENT HAS

BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND A

WEAKENING CAP.

GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING MECHANISM /I.E.

MIDLEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/...DIABATIC HEATING...CONVERGENCE ALONG

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS TERRAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCI

FOR STORM INITIATION. RATHER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE

DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE. NONETHELESS...THE STRONGER

STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE

EVENING HOURS.

...CNTRL PLAINS INTO LOWER MO VALLEY TONIGHT...

NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT FROM WRN TX INTO THE

MID/LOWER MO VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO

THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL

MOISTURE FLUX BENEATH ERN EXTENSION OF EML/STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME

WITH ENVIRONMENT BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MUCAPE INCREASING

TO 1000-2000 J/KG. GIVEN 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK

SHEAR...ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS

CAPABLE OF HAIL. AS SUCH...HIGHER HAIL PROBABILITIES AND A

CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK HAVE BEEN INCLUDED.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO CUMBERLAND PLATEAU THROUGH THIS EVENING...

AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE DEEPENING

MOIST CUMULUS CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG COLD FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF

CNTRL PA SWWD INTO CNTRL/ERN KY. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH

THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG

SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO INTO WRN

QUEBEC.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL

CONTINUE TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH

MLCAPE AOB 500 J/KG WITHIN REGION OF STRONGER SHEAR OVER PA/WV...TO

500-1000 J/KG ACROSS KY/TN WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOTABLY WEAKER.

AS SUCH...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY

SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND

PERHAPS SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

..MEAD.. 05/14/2009

[stevestorms]

'Here' or 'there'? B)

Thursday 14th May:

As I said earlier I reckon there's a good chance of some structure Vernon to Abilene axis from 00Z (sorry - big area I know).

The 06Z NAM looked reasonable with a surface flow convergence initiating activity in a high CAPE environment, and 15Z RUC backs this up to some extent.

Hey thanks for reply I thought I was writing for the sake of it!! yep agree and did read your earlier post, still hope we can pick a singular cell on its lonesum its now 1630 no tops that we can see on Baron anyway, sitting fast at Colorado City i20 SW of Aberlene Tx

Certainly some deep thought needs to go into your position for tomorrows outlook.

Today heralds a small risk of moderate hail and localised thunderstorms around Abilene or just south of Cap Rock. Though IMO tomorrows risk could go moderate for southern Kansas. All it needs is the jet to drop a little further south.

My virtual chase would see me blow out today for a good position in Pratt, Kansas! B under no illusion V2 are probably already on their way!

PS. An early thread on tomorrow is in order!

I hear that Tony, might have to be a biggy drive for us tonight and tomorrow to make Pratt but being the last day we will do it somehow.

[nsrobins]

Hey thanks for reply I thought I was writing for the sake of it!! yep agree and did read your earlier post, still hope we can pick a singular cell on its lonesum its now 1630 no tops that we can see on Baron anyway, sitting fast at Colorado City i20 SW of Aberlene Tx

I hear that Tony, might have to be a biggy drive for us tonight and tomorrow to make Pratt but being the last day we will do it somehow.

I admire your perseverance, and to be honest I'm not sure why the discussion is so quiet on this one as the data I'm looking at is developing a few storms, possibly a decent hail producer, in the next three hours. Latest RUC has a sizable ppn core from 23Z to your northeast over Graham, and the model is being led by locally dropped-out cap, medium instability and plenty of juice. All we need is a kick - and I thought we'd get that from a surface convergence in wind flow. What's the surface wind vector where you are?

[stevestorms]

I admire your perseverance, and to be honest I'm not sure why the discussion is so quiet on this one as the data I'm looking at is developing a few storms, possibly a decent hail producer, in the next three hours. Latest RUC has a sizable ppn core from 23Z to your northeast over Graham, and the model is being led by locally dropped-out cap, medium instability and plenty of juice. All we need is a kick - and I thought we'd get that from a surface convergence in wind flow. What's the surface wind vector where you are?

Hi Neil from the Baron winds are SSE 18mph to my East@ aberlene, turning ESE at 12mph to my West at Great springs at the surface

Edited May 14, 2009 by stevestorms

[Julie Cameron]

Bet ya if it was still a 'dry' county ya's wouldn't be goin back so often!! :lol: ..

lol i quite agree

[nsrobins]

Hi Neil from the Baron winds are SSE 18mph to my East@ aberlene, turning ESE at 12mph to my West at Great springs at the surface

That backs-up Windmapper. What I can't see are the 950mb wind fields but maybe with the frontal boundary stalling way to your north, and hardly any directional shear across it that I can see anyway, the initiation will have to come from topography if things are to get going. Looks like about 6/8 high cloud cover too, but this is clearing to your east.

Here's hoping you get something to fire. I'm off as I have an early start in the morning.

[stevestorms]

Its not to bad just Simpson clouds, we moved into clear air around midday, I must admit on the way down it was a tad more breezy than it is here, might have to think about a move, but will hang on a bit longer see if anything pops

[NL]

Latest visible satellite image showing quite a lot of cloud but looks well scattered with

some large breaks, storms are well to the SW/Texas.

[stevestorms]

Thanks for the image, its not changed much them storms started south of the boarder in Mexico and have just spiraled north, its a long wait for us not knowing if it was worth the trip

[stevestorms]

In the Big T AFTER A MAMOUTH DRIVE !!! All i can say about what is now yesterday as it is now past 2am is ---OH MY GOD!!! and if some of you were looking at what I believe was the only supercell in the USA down at Lamesa tx you might have an idea!! to tired to think about what happened no tornado but a experience to remember, will post on Pauls new post in morning, phew!

Steve and Martin

[Paul Sherman]

Okay will open a Thread for you Steve

Sounds Interesting Mate!

We are in Witchita

Good luck for your last day Mate

Paul S

[nsrobins]

Sounds like the trip was worth it in the end - looking forward to the report.