Model Outlook For Chase Team 3

[nsrobins]

Putting this in here as there's no discussion for the next few days.

Picking the bones of the depressingly quiet looking synoptics for the next few days (unless you fancy a trip to Florida) and I think there's something that might be worth considering for tomorrow but it'll involve a trip back to W OK.

The low currently over the GOM is trying to feed moisture into the MS/AK region and the push is enough to get 60+ dps into W OK by 21Z Fri. A sounding for Fort Smith has LCLs at 750m and enough instability to generate around 1000J/kg of mean CAPE. Shear is minimal realising less than 1.00 0-3 EHIs but I think there's enough to produce initiation and hailer/structure opportunities.

I'm not sure how this fits in with SPC analysis but may be worth a punt. I still remain optimistic that the GOM low will slowly lift out of the Gulf and start to re-instate the expected late May synoptics by late weekend/early next week.

[nsrobins]

I still think there's enough to warrant looking at the OK/AR border down towards MS later this afternoon. The WV imagery shows a boundary of sorts ahead of a plume of nearly 70dp surface flow from the E. 12NAM breaks out ppn from 21Z in this area, and although not unstable as such something may fire if the low cloud crud can clear off in time.

The other area is the continued upslope activity developing just east of the high range on the NE/CO border region. This, given your current position, will offer more potential maybe.

Nothing mentioned anywhere on this so I'm going alone hence I might be way off the mark but hey, at least I'm talking about potential in these quiet times