Gavin's Thoughts (May 31st)

[Gavin P]

Hello folks,

This weeks Thoughts is delivered with some trepidation. The pressure pattern over the next week means that I can have no confidence in detail. The very slack nature of the synoptic set-up means that we are at risk of heavy showers and thundery downpoars, but pin-pointing who will see the heaviest of these showers will be near impossible. Late in the week pressure may well rise a bit across England and Wales, so probably becoming dry and fine in the south, although there are hints of more unsettled conditions developing next weekend.

This weekend sees the UK under a very slack set up. Saturday essentially looks like a dry day with bright or sunny spells and a good deal of cloud. The cloud may become thick enough to produce the odd shower and maybe some heavy and thundery showers possible in the south-west, but essentially, I think we can Saturday should be a mainly dry day. Its pretty humid and warm out there, with temps up 20-22c.

Sunday is going to see a very shallow low heading in from the east, giving outbreaks of heavy and persistent to much of the east coast, East Anglia, Northern England and Eastern Scotland though the day. Elsewhere we see a lot of cloud and this may thicken enough to set off an occasional heavy shower. Temps a bit down on those of today, 17-19c typically, but under the overcast skys and heavy rain, probably no better than 13-15c.

Monday sees a very weak and slack pressure pattern continuing across the UK. Persistent rain will probaly still be affecting the east coast of Scotland, but for the rest of the country, I think it should start dry and misty with low cloud. Sunshine should burn through during the morning, with heavy showers and thunderstorms then setting off during the afternoon. Difficult to say where the heaviest showers will be, but probably the further south you go, the more frequent the showers will be. Temps up to 21c and staying quite humid.

Tuesday will see more heavy showers and thunderstorms almost anywhere, but particularly in central and southern parts. The west probably getting the best of the dry and bright conditions. Temps up to 21c again.

Wednesday may see a longer spell of thundery rain moving up the east coast, but otherwise its again a mix of sunshine and thundery showers, with temps of 21c.

Now Thursday may see a slight pressure rise across England and Wales. This means we see just a scattering of light showers and good sunny spells for southern parts of the country. Northern England and Scotland probably seeing more heavy and thundery showers, with more persistent rain pushing into Ireland. Temps up to a very warm 23c in the sunny south, 18-20c in the north.

Friday sees higher pressure continuing to ridge into the south and east, but low pressure will be trying to get into the west. So for much of the western side of the UK, we see quite a cloudy day, with outbreaks of patchy rain. For the bulk of the country, however, I'm expcting a dry and bright day, with sunny spells for much of the eastern side. Temps 20c in the west, perhaps 25c in the east.

Next weekend may turn increasingly warm and humid, with low pressure attacking from the west and the south, so dry and sunny conditions gradually give way to rain heading in from the west, and this may be reinfirced by thunder coming up from the south on Sunday.

Summary: Very slack, slow moving patterns. Most places seeing heavy showers at times. Warm and humid. Probably dry and sunny for a time in the south and east later in the week.

Edited May 31, 2008 by Gavin P

[grab my graupel]

Thanks for that Gavin

It must have been pretty difficult putting a forecast together, and at the same time try to be as accurate as possible

under the current circumstances.

Brian. :lol:

[Gavin P]

Yeah, it was one of those tricky ones so typical of early summer.

The easiest weather is winter zonality. From that POV, thats what I am most comfortable with. But of course, as these tricky situations offer more of a challenge, they also offer more of a reward i everything goes right. :lol: