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Nick F

Day 32 (Thurs 29th May) - HIGH RISK Discussion

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We are currently in Concordia, north central Kansas ... we'll also be chasing with Dave Ewoldt, Lorraine Evans, Gareth P, and Chris (ITV Cameraman) today. Good chance of strong tornadoes over north KS, NE and IA.

post-1052-1212071346_thumb.png

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0720 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER

PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEB...WESTERN IA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST SD...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN

KS...CENTRAL NEB...CENTRAL IA...SOUTHEAST SD...AND SOUTHWEST MN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE TO

SOUTHERN WI...

...REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES EXPECTED

TODAY OVER PARTS OF NEB/IA/SD...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE

WESTERN STATES...WITH A BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID

LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR-CORNERS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED OVER WESTERN CO. THIS

FEATURE WILL EMERGE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON

AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF

KS/NEB/SD/IA. STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE

SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS ARE TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE RAPIDLY

NORTHWARD AT AND ABOVE THE SURFACE. DEWPOINTS APPEAR LIKELY TO

CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S OVER EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA BY LATE

AFTERNOON. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE

RATES WILL COMBINE TO YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE FIRST ALONG THE SURFACE

DRYLINE OVER WESTERN NEB/KS BY MID AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL BE

RATHER HIGH-BASED...BUT WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR DUE TO STRONG

DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR. MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER

THE WARM SECTOR IN EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON

AND EARLY EVENING IN REGION OF RELATIVELY WEAK CINH AND STRONG CAPE.

THESE STORMS WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOWER LCLS...STRONGER LOW

LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR/HELICITY...AND MORE SUBTLE FORCING. THESE

FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF DISCRETE

SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY STRONG

TORNADOES. MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF SURFACE WARM FRONT AND

MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR OF SIG TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS AT

THIS TIME TO EXTEND FROM ONL/GRI THROUGH THE SUX AREA INTO WESTERN

IA. LOW LEVEL WINDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AFTER

DARK IN THIS AREA WITH A SUSTAINED THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES.

EVENTUALLY...ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL SURGE

INTO THIS AREA AND LIKELY ORGANIZE CONVECTION INTO A FAST-MOVING

MCS. AN ENHANCED THREAT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO

DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL IA DURING THE EVENING.

THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY

SOUTH OF I-70 DUE TO WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND WEAKER DEEP

LAYER SHEAR. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE

POSSIBLE ALONG SURFACE DRYLINE ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO

PARTS OF EASTERN NM,

..HART/JEWELL.. 05/29/2008

Very favourable forecast skew-ts for the moderate/high risk area today - winds very backed down towards the surface and hodographs favourable for tornadic supercells:

http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_ske...STATIONID=_KOAX

http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_ske...STATIONID=_KTOP

post-1052-1212071372_thumb.png

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What a difference 2 days make...!!! Already the team are in the 15% tornado risk

and 80 mile south of the 30% risk. Sure to be one 'ell' ov a day good luck and stay safe

could get very hairy out there today..!!

Latest visible satellite image @1532z

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Have been watching the models upgrade this for a few days now and the Hodographs we saw last night were insane!

I feel for people living in Eastern Nebraska and parts of Iowa that got hit by the EF5 On Sunday as it is going to be a very long day and NIGHT!

This could be the best day yet for seeing Tornadoes!

Paul S

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Unbelievable first half of the year its been, 2008 sure to go down in the history

weather almanac. The end of may approaches and the prelimary tornado

figures are astonishing, even when the eventual figures are known it'll still be way

over the average...

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we are on the road heading north on the 81 in search of some monster storms this could be a huge day lets hope the weather gods are on our side and give us a real show, we dont want much maybe 3 nados would be cool no pressure Paul ;);)

Ian

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This is the first high risk day I have seen at this level of technology, as before this years NW stormchase all I had really been able to see at on the subject was you tube videos a few days after particular tornado's hit or TV news reports the next day. Viewing the storms like this using Net weather and streaming videos from these US sites is something I thought I would never see, its very good ;) High risk = looks like I am staying up late tonight ;)

Good luck Paul and the crew.

Russ

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Best of luck chaps, looking forward to those updates coming in. As always, stay safe..

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Meso Discussion concerning severe watch.

MCD - 29/1915Z

ACUS11 KWNS 291810

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 291810

KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-291915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1080

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0110 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS...ERN NM...WRN OK/TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 291810Z - 291915Z

BOUNDARY LAYER HAS WARMED/DEEPENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE LAST FEW

HOURS ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS FROM ERN CO INTO ERN NM.

THIS IS REFLECTED WELL IN LATEST VIS IMAGERY WHERE CU FIELD IS

DEVELOPING/EXPANDING EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DESPITE THE

SOMEWHAT VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW...IT APPEARS DEEP CONVECTION WILL

SOON DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SERN CO INTO ERN NM. THIS ACTIVITY

WILL THEN INTENSIFY AND SPREAD ENEWD TOWARD WRN KS AND THE WRN

PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION. SHEAR PROFILES ARE MORE

THAN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF

GENERATING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..DARROW.. 05/29/2008

Latest visible satellite image @1845

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Tornado watch

TornadoWatch - 0200Z

WWUS20 KWNS 291834

SEL4

SPC WW 291834

COZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-300200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 384

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

135 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO

SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST KANSAS

MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE

PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 135 PM UNTIL

900 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AKRON

COLORADO TO 90 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHADRON NEBRASKA. FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY

ACROSS WATCH AREA AS LITTLE REMAINING CINH. STRONG DEEP LAYER

SHEAR...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE TO 1000 J/KG SUPPORT SUPERCELL

DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS WINDS

BUT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ANY SUPERCELL

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Currently heading west from York, NE on the I-80 to get out of the low cloud/light rain grunge that's plaguing this area - nice cumulus field to the west over south central NE towards Kearney.

Ian or I will update later ...

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Mesoscale discussion for central to south central Nebraska now:

post-1052-1212088663_thumb.png

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1081

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0144 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL NEB...NW KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 291844Z - 291945Z

A TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS STORMS INITIATE AND

INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND

ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ALSO APPEAR LIKELY. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE

NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION WITH ISSUANCE LIKELY BY 20Z.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1005 MB LOW OVER ERN CO WITH A DRYLINE

EXTENDING SSEWD ACROSS WRN KS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES

CUMULUS IS FORMING OVER ERN CO AND THE CUMULUS SHOULD EXPAND IN

COVERAGE AS SFC HEATING CONTINUES. THE LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS SW

NEB AND NW KS WITH STORMS GRADUALLY MOVING NEWD INTO INCREASING

INSTABILITY. SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 3000 J/KG AND MODERATE VERTICAL

SHEAR ON REGIONAL PROFILERS ALONG WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR

PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET JUST EAST OF

THE MCD AREA SUGGEST A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES...LARGE

HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO WILL BE

POSSIBLE AS STORMS MATURE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF WCNTRL

AND SRN NEB.

..BROYLES.. 05/29/2008

Weather Radio currently mention weather impacts in this area of baseball size hail, straightline winds of up to 90 mph, and storms having tornadoes.

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Tornado watch

TornadoWatch - 0300Z

WWUS20 KWNS 291930

SEL6

SPC WW 291930

KSZ000-NEZ000-300300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 386

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

230 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

The Watch Probabilities are as follows:

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes High (>95%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes High (70%)

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events High (80%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots Mod (60%)

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events High (>95%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches High (80%)

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events High (>95%)

PARTS OF NORTHERN KANSAS

MUCH OF CENTRAL AND PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER...

THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE

POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF

ONEILL NEBRASKA TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF RUSSELL KANSAS.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 384...WW 385...

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY ACROSS WATCH

AREA REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. STRONG SHEAR AND MLCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG

SUPPORT TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL WITH ANY SUPERCELL. POTENTIAL

FOR LONG LIVED SUPERCELLS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG TORNADOES.

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Latest visible satellite image @ 2032z

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Blimey, looks like a very active and busy day for the guys...

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Tornado warning on that cell sw Nebraska.TornadoWarning - 29/2100Z

WFUS53 KLBF 292010

TORLBF

NEC063-292100-

O.NEW.KLBF.TO.W.0015.080529T2009Z-080529T2100Z

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE

309 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

FRONTIER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 305 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR RED WILLOW

RESERVOIR STATE RECREATION AREA...OR 19 MILES SOUTH OF CURTIS...

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

STOCKVILLE BY 325 PM CDT...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF

BALL SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

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we are now racing to intercept the a cell that should cross the I80 between Kearney and Lexington looking pretty good at the mo

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AnotTornadoWarning - 29/2130Z

WFUS53 KLBF 292050

TORLBF

NEC063-292130-

O.NEW.KLBF.TO.W.0016.080529T2050Z-080529T2130Z

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE

350 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

EASTERN FRONTIER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 430 PM CDT

* AT 347 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES NORTH OF

MEDICINE CREEK RESERVOIR STATE RECREATION AREA...OR 18 MILES

SOUTHEAST OF CURTIS...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

7 MILES SOUTH OF EUSTIS BY 405 PM CDT.her warning on that cell.

Teams intercept position

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we are now racing to intercept the a cell that should cross the I80 between Kearney and Lexington looking pretty good at the mo

God I hate you guys! Well actually no I dont, just jealous. Actually no, I do hate you guys. I cant make up my mind. Or can I.

Looks like yere in for a cracker lads. Enjoy. Will be watching.

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A tornado has been spotted in Kearney with damage reported.

TornadoWarning - 29/2315Z

WWUS53 KGID 292227

SVSGID

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE

527 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

NEC019-047-099-137-292315-

O.CON.KGID.TO.W.0022.000000T0000Z-080529T2315Z

BUFFALO NE-DAWSON NE-KEARNEY NE-PHELPS NE-

527 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT FOR

NORTHEASTERN PHELPS...NORTHWESTERN KEARNEY...SOUTHEASTERN DAWSON AND

BUFFALO COUNTIES...

A TORNADO HAS BEEN REPORTED IN KEARNEY WITH DAMAGE.

ANOTHER STORM PRODUCING A POSSIBLE TORNADO IS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTH

OF FUNK.

AT 525 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO. THIS

TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR KEARNEY...MOVING EAST AT 34 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO POOLE

AND GIBBON

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 253 AND 288.

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Tornado warnings coming in thick and fast in NW Kansas too.

Live footage of the Kearney cell from the Team Remora chase cam at http://www.severestudios.com/livechase

Been flitting from their cam and Dennis Sherrods in Kansas.....Powerflashes on Team Remora stream.Lots of debris and damage..!!

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This is Andy using Ian's login.

We've just had a close shave with a damaging tornado that has passed through Kearney, causing lots of tree and some structural damage. We have just passed through Gibbon, and are tracking rain-wrapped circulation to our north, and another circulation just south of Kearney .

Just West of Kearney we became involved in the RFD, which was definately 90+mph, and pushed about 15 carriages of an empty freight train off it's line, over a ridge - pics to come later

Also we've seen a cone tornado!!!

Paul S' first Nebraskan tornado (Goes for all of us too!!)

Andy

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Excellent news that your all ok.. watchin that cell on team Remora's stream, Wow..!! it looks incredible

bet the adrenalin is pumping fast and furious...!!!

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Tornado warnings coming in thick and fast in NW Kansas too.

Been flitting from their cam and Dennis Sherrods in Kansas.....Powerflashes on Team Remora stream.Lots of debris and damage..!!

Yep - they had to swerve to avoid a fully grown tree lying in the middle of the road a few mins ago!

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