Day 27 - Slight Risk

[Paul Sherman]

This looks like a decent Tornado day for Eastern Nebraska with 3,500 of Cape and significant turning of winds, we will choose a target in the morning but Eastern Nebraska looks great at this early stage

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1254 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS NRN PLAINS TO LOWER MO

VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE/RETROGRADING CYCLONIC GYRE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE UPPER AIR

PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN CONUS. MEAN CENTER OF THIS FEATURE

SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD...TOWARD NRN CA COAST...BEFORE IT

BECOMES QUASISTATIONARY.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND RAOB

ANALYSES OVER CO -- WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NWD AROUND ERN RIM OF

SYNOPTIC CYCLONE...AND SHOULD PHASE WITH ANOTHER PERTURBATION CLOSER

TO LOW. BY 25/00Z...NET RESULT SHOULD BE SMALL MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW

OVER ERN MT...WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURVING EWD/SWD ACROSS SRN

ND...ERN SD AND N-CENTRAL NEB. MEANWHILE...E OF MEAN

RIDGE...SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER UPPER MS VALLEY IS EXPECTED

TO MOVE RAPIDLY SEWD TODAY...MOVING OFFSHORE CAROLINAS AND ACROSS

ERN GA AROUND 25/00Z.

AT SFC...LOW OVER NRN CO WILL MOVE/REDEVELOP NWD TO NRN HIGH

PLAINS...NEARLY COLOCATED WITH MIDLEVEL VORTEX CENTER BY 25/00Z.

OCCLUDED FRONT LIKEWISE SHOULD MOVE NWD...ACROSS ERN WY...NEB

PANHANDLE AND INTO BLACK HILLS..WITH WEAK COLD FRONT SWD ACROSS WRN

KS AND TX PANHANDLE. FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASISTATIONARY AND LOSE

IDENTITY FROM ERN TX PANHANDLE SSWWD ACROSS SERN NM OR FAR W TX.

INITIALLY STATIONARY FRONT OVER NRN KS IS FCST TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS

NEB...REACHING POSITION FROM NEAR MKC NWWD TO OCCLUSION TRIPLE POINT

OVER N-CENTRAL NEB BY 25/00Z. DRYLINE IS FCST BY THAT TIME FROM

CENTRAL NEB SWD OVER PORTIONS WRN OK.

...NRN PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY...

SVR POTENTIAL TODAY SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED IN SWATH FROM VICINITY

OCCLUDED FRONT OVER WRN SD...SEWD ALONG WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF

DRYLINE OVER PORTIONS LOWER MO VALLEY REGION. SVR RISK BECOMES

QUITE CONDITIONAL S OF NEB...AND SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BECOME

VERY MRGL FROM WRN SD NWWD TOWARD UPPER LOW.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL/DIABATIC HEATING EACH ARE FCST TO

INCREASE WITH SSEWD EXTENT IN BETWEEN DRYLINE AND WARM FRONT. SFC

DEW POINTS MID-UPPER 60S F -- ISOLATED LOW 70S -- ARE LIKELY WITH

MLCAPES RISING INTO 2500-3500 J/KG RANGE IN WARM/MOIST SECTOR.

HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND COVERAGE BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN

WITH SWD EXTENT BECAUSE OF PROGGED WEAKER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE

INVOF THOSE BOUNDARIES.

VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...SOME

PRODUCING TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL...THROUGHOUT CORRIDOR FROM WRN

SD...WHERE CAPE WILL BE WEAK BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE...TO ERN

KS/WRN MO. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STG TURNING WITH HEIGHT INVOF

WARM/OCCLUDED FRONTS...WITH ENLARGED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AVAILABLE

TO ANY TSTMS INTERACTING WITH THOSE FRONTS. MOST FAVORABLE

JUXTAPOSITION OF BUOYANCY AND SHEAR MAY BE OVER ERN

NEB...CORRESPONDING TO NARROW/NRN FRINGE OF WARM SECTOR NEAR AND SE

OF OCCLUSION TRIPLE POINT.

...PORTIONS FL AND SRN GA...

AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APCHS FROM NW...EXPECT SFC CYCLOGENESIS OFFSHORE

ATLANTIC WITH FRONTOGENETIC SFC TROUGH EXTENDING WWD ACROSS FL/GA

BORDER REGION. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE INVOF THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE

LIMITED...GIVEN STG WLY FLOW COMPONENT S OF BOUNDARY...WIDELY

SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP AMIDST STG DIURNAL HEATING

AND WEAKENING SBCINH THIS AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS UPPER 60S TO LOW

70S F WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SPEED

SHEAR...CONTRIBUTING TO EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES 35-40

KT...MAY ORGANIZE TSTMS ENOUGH TO POSE THREAT FOR ISOLATED

HAIL...ALONG WITH STG/POTENTIALLY DAMAGING GUSTS.

[mac]

Good lightning in Kansas City at the moment

Live traffic cam: http://media.myfoxkc.com/kansas-city-traffic

Click on the Sheraton Hotel cam

Edited May 24, 2008 by mac

[dogs32]

nice bit of lightning there

[stevestorms]

Hi Paul and Team, just wanted to say congrads well done all, im back at work now ---uggggg but wish I was back out there on the plains, ah well another year! take care chase safe, ta ta, steve.

[Rustynailer]

Good lightning in Kansas City at the moment

Live traffic cam: http://media.myfoxkc.com/kansas-city-traffic

Click on the Sheraton Hotel cam

Now there's a thought, perhaps the Netweather team could make a guest appearance on a traffic cam for us

Slight risk today, better than no risk at all I am sure you'll find the storms. Some great pictures and videos posted of yesterdays action, look forward to more of the same hopefully.

Russ

[Roger J Smith]

Got a dartboard handy?

Picking a target today somewhat of a lottery. The risk is now spread out over a wide area from eastern NE across east and central KS into OK. Might say southeast KS has the highest risk around Emporia, Ottawa KS might be the eventual chase zone ... but anyone could score a tornado between Omaha and Oklahoma City today. Will check back and see where the team has decided to go, and have another look later on.

[ian cameron]

hi all we are back o the road just about to refuel in elsworth then we will be heading north east of our location into Nebraska

[dallas]

hi all we are back o the road just about to refuel in elsworth then we will be heading north east of our location into Nebraska

Hope it's another productive day for ya all

[NL]

Tornado watch issued for North central Oklahoma.

TornadoWatch - 0000Z

WWUS20 KWNS 241801

SEL7

SPC WW 241801

OKZ000-250000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 347

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

105 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 105 PM UNTIL

700 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE

MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF

ENID OKLAHOMA TO 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF CHANDLER OKLAHOMA. FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 346...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY ALONG

INTERSECTION OF E/W OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND N/S DRY LINE. WITH A VERY

TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR...MLCAPES TO 4000 J/KG...AND

ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR VICINITY BOUNDARIES...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY

INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES

[NL]

Latest visible satellite image. 1845z.

Mesoscale discission concerning severe watch.

MCD - 24/2115Z

ACUS11 KWNS 241917

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 241917

NEZ000-SDZ000-242115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1003

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0217 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB AND SCNTRL/SERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 241917Z - 242115Z

THOUGH THE LARGER SCALE MID-LEVEL WAVE HAS MOVED NWD INTO THE NRN

PLAINS...VSBL SATL SEEMS TO SUGGEST EVIDENCE OF A SUB-SYNOPTIC WAVE

MOVING INTO NCNTRL NEB. TO THE S OF THIS WAVE...WSW LOW-LEVEL FLOW

WAS ADVECTING DRIER AIR NEWD INTO CNTRL NEB. TO THE E...LOW-LEVEL

MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO RECOVER FROM OVERNIGHT TSTMS...BUT A

TONGUE OF LWR-MID 60S DEW POINTS WAS MOVING INTO THE GRAND ISLAND

AREA AT 19Z WITH LWR 60S TO THE SD BORDER. RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST

THAT A CAP STILL EXISTS OVER THE REGION AND IT WILL LIKELY TAKE

SEVERAL MORE DEGREES RISE IN TEMPERATURES/DEW POINT TO ERASE CINH.

BUT... THE COMBINATION OF INCREASE CONVERGENCE...OWING TO INCREASED

WLY MOMENTUM OVER CNTRL NEB...AND HEATING ALONG WRN EDGE OF THE

DEEPER MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY LEAD TO INITIATION BETWEEN 21-23Z

OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO SCNTRL SD.

THE MID-LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE

EVENING...BUT GIVEN MAINTENANCE OF A STRONG SLY LLJ...SUFFICIENT

VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. TORNADOES

WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY IF STORMS CAN BECOME

ESTABLISHED...REMAIN DISCRETE AND MOVE INTO ERN NEB AND SCNTRL/SERN

SD THIS EVENING.

Edited May 24, 2008 by NL

[Muffelchen]

Hope the boys have good luck in NE. One cell up there at the moment. Two large cells have broken the CAP just N of Oklahoma City. One is already tornado warned and has a TVS. Not many chasers on it and no reports yet though. A promising start: it is early yet.

[Godot]

Live Channel 9 feed amazing stuff now :

mms://a1420.l4265535419.c42655.n.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1420/42655/v0001/reflector:35419

Already a few tornadoes.. funnels forming all the time.

[Muffelchen]

Dave Drummond has a tornado on the ground right now:

http://wx5tvs.com/content/view/65/83/

Live Channel 9 feed amazing stuff now :

mms://a1420.l4265535419.c42655.n.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1420/42655/v0001/reflector:35419

Already a few tornadoes.. funnels forming all the time.

Feed is awesome!!!

Where do you find this stuff?

I would not fly in that plane if you paid me

[Nick F]

Tornado watch issued for Central and Ern Nebraska, we have just left Hebron for a spot of lunch and now headed north to I-80 near York, then perhaps west a little and perhaps intercept some storms forming south along the cold front moving in from the west:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0349.html

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 349

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

310 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 310 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND

GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE

AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF ONEILL

NEBRASKA TO 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BEATRICE NEBRASKA. FOR A

COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE

UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 346...WW 347...WW 348...

DISCUSSION...WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY NWD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT

ACROSS NEB CONDITIONS ARE NOW FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE

THUNDERSTORMS AS STRONG MID LEVEL WIND MAX TRAVERSES AREA.

SUPERCELLS INCLUDING LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS

STORMS INCREASE IN BOTH NUMBER AND INTENSITY THRU REMAINDER OF THE

AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL

SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE

WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO

500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.

...HALES

[Muffelchen]

Live Channel 9 feed amazing stuff now :

mms://a1420.l4265535419.c42655.n.lm.akamaistream.net/D/1420/42655/v0001/reflector:35419

Already a few tornadoes.. funnels forming all the time.

Are you getting any sound on this or just pics?

[Godot]

Feed is awesome!!!

Where do you find this stuff?

I have entirely too much time on my hands.

There were some spectacular shots of a couple of tornadoes a bit earlier, and I expect we'll see more soon. Utterly compelling stuff to watch.

Oh wow.. and there it is!

Are you getting any sound on this or just pics?

There is sound, yes. Open it in Windows Media Player or equivalent and make sure the volume isn't muted (in the app as well as the mixer)

[Muffelchen]

I have entirely too much time on my hands. :lol:

There were some spectacular shots of a couple of tornadoes a bit earlier, and I expect we'll see more soon. Utterly compelling stuff to watch.

Oh wow.. and there it is!

There is sound, yes. Open it in Windows Media Player or equivalent and make sure the volume isn't muted (in the app as well as the mixer)

Na, still can't get any sound. Got the airoplane pics though and dave Drummond on the ground on the same storm. Amazing pics

[NL]

Storms initiating around 50 mile NW of York Nebraska, currently travelling NNE @40mph

and producing half inch hail.

Teams present position.

Latest visible satellite image @2215z

Edited May 24, 2008 by NL

[Rustynailer]

I have only been watching for 2 minutes, there are a lot of chasers about watching this storm, I like the Jeeps with dogs on the back too, presume they are the local "rednecks" (Takes one to know one)

Truly compelling as has been said above.

[ian cameron]

we are just about to head north through Aurora we are curently watching the whole line tower rock hard something is going to go boom shortly fingers crossed

Ian

[NL]

New MD.

MCD - 25/0130Z

ACUS11 KWNS 242334

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 242333

IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-SDZ000-250130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1010

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0633 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN NEB...EXTREME WRN IA...EXTREME

N-CENTRAL KS.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 349...

VALID 242333Z - 250130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 349 CONTINUES.

CONTINUE WW ALONG/AHEAD OF BKN BAND OF TSTMS...WHICH CORRESPONDS

CLOSELY TO LEADING EDGE OF LOW-MIDLEVEL DRYING AND VEERED FLOW THAT

WILL END TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL TO ITS W. SVR POTENTIAL MAY

APCH EXTREME WRN IA BEFORE TSTMS BEGIN TO STRUGGLE AGAINST EXCESSIVE

SBCINH E OF WARM FRONTAL ZONE. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBILITY OF

ADDITIONAL WW.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BLENDED

DRYLINE/COLD FRONTAL ZONE FROM CHARLES MIX COUNTY SD SWD TO WEBSTER

COUNTY NEB...THEN SSWWD THROUGH ELLIS COUNTY KS. SRN PORTION OF

THIS BOUNDARY -- GENERALLY S OF I-80...HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY

AND MAY RETREAT VERY SLOWLY WWD DURING NEXT FEW HOURS. NRN PORTION

-- JUST AHEAD OF WHICH SCATTERED TSTMS ARE ONGOING -- SHOULD MOVE

NEWD ACROSS MORE OF NERN NEB WITH TIME. SFC WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED

FROM NEAR MHE SEWD BETWEEN FSD-SUX...ALONG OR JUST E OF MO RIVER

ACROSS EXTREME WRN IA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NEWD BUT

NOT AS FAST AS DRY PUNCH...RESULTING IN NARROWING ZONE OF FAVORABLE

SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WITH TIME. FARTHER S...OVER EXTREME S-CENTRAL

NEB AND NRN KS...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE

INITIATION IS MORE CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED AND WILL BECOME LESS

PROBABLE WITH TIME...BECAUSE OF COMBINATION OF DECREASING DIURNAL

HEATING AND WEAKER MASS CONVERGENCE. THIS TREND ALREADY IS EVIDENT

IN DECREASE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE CLOUDS INDICATED IN VIS IMAGERY.

THESE FACTORS ACT TO NARROW MOST FAVORABLE CORRIDOR FOR SUSTAINED

SUPERCELL POTENTIAL DURING NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND A

FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE...TO NERN AND E-CENTRAL PORTIONS WW...INVOF

YKN-OLU LINE.

..EDWARDS.. 05/24/2008

[MAF]

beat me to it mate, been reading up on the MD. looking good tornado activity

[ian cameron]

only one way to describe today busted big time no storms evan my mum would say nah to the teams very disapionted we shall wait for the last of the pansy rain clouds pass over then we will spend the night in Nolfolk just about to have a beer then maybe a few more and go through our pics from yesterday

Ian

[ian cameron]

weve just seen the tiv try and core punch a muti vortex rainbow will he make it :lol: :lol: :lol:

I think we just heard the rainbow sirens going of in norfolk I think someones stolen the pot of gold

[NL]

Looked so promising around south eastern Nebraska even visible sat data

looked like convection was taking place, what went wrong? The place to be

today was Oklahoma, with a huge supercell (although it was/is an HP cell)

that produced many tornadoes and still continues to be issued warnings, well

there's still tomorrow,i'm sure you'll score some good storms then..