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DAY 25 Discussion


Paul Sherman

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

This day has got so many similarities to Greensburg (4th May 07) it is almost scary. Same area and almost same set-up, and today it feels like the day before the Greensburg day as well, expecting as possible Moderate or HIGH On Friday ;);)

post-24-1211394219_thumb.png

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1217 PM CDT WED MAY 21 2008

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS...SRN

NEBRASKA AND NRN OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL

PLAINS...SRN PLAINS AND HIGH PLAINS...

...REGIONAL OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY

NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS....

...CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT

AS AN 80 TO 100 KT MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL

TROUGH THURSDAY. THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET IS FORECAST TO EJECT

NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODEL FORECASTS

IN AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS.

DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY...INCREASING

VERTICAL SHEAR AND STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL

SYSTEM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AS A

RESULT...A WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF

THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

AT THE SFC...MODEL FORECASTS MOVE A 986 TO 988 MB LOW SLOWLY EWD

INTO WRN KS THURSDAY. A DRYLINE SHOULD BE IN PLACE FROM THE SFC LOW

EXTENDING SSEWD INTO THE FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS

EAST OF THE DRYLINE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. FORECAST SOUNDINGS

SUGGEST THE MOIST LAYER WILL EXTEND ABOVE 850 MB AND THIS SHOULD

RESULT IN STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 3000 TO 4500

J/KG RANGE. AS THUNDERSTORMS INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE LATE

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY...STRONG

VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY FAVOR

DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AS THE DOMINANT STORM MODE. IN ADDITION TO THE

STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS RAPIDLY INCREASE 0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES TO ABOUT 30

KT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AS SUPERCELLS MATURE ACROSS WCNTRL KS...SRN NEB AND NW OK.

A FEW LONGER-LIVED STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE

INTENSE SUPERCELLS THAT MOVE INTO THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET

FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON TO THE MID EVENING. MAXIMIZED

INSTABILITY...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DEEP LAYER

SHEAR EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL ALSO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED

THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH THE MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP

THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL

JET. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE AFTER

MIDNIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE THROUGH

LATE IN THE PERIOD.

...ERN AND CNTRL TX/OZARK PLATEAU AND LOWER MS VALLEY...

IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...A

BROAD 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE IN PLACE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS

THE SRN PLAINS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD SUSTAIN HIGH SFC

DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S F ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF TX AND THE LOWER

MS VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF STRONG INSTABILITY

BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 3000 TO 4000

J/KG. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAK ACROSS MOST OF THE

REGION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS SHOULD DEVELOP IN PARTS OF

ERN TX...AR AND LA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE

REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION

SUGGEST VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE

STORM THREAT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW CONCERNING EXACTLY

WHERE INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE

FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

May 22/08 _ 0400z

Overnight storms should gradually wind down after 06z, then Thursday will bring a much stronger set-up oriented NNW-SSE across w/c KS. This should become tornadic but the one difference I see from the Greensburg event is that here, there could be a long complex of storms so that finding the right cell and a tornado may be a bit difficult with rain and merged cells the issues. With the Greensburg event, the upper level winds were more WSW and the F5 cell developed late in eastern CO and raced almost due east, here the action will be slower moving and any tornadoes may tend to drift north.

The complex of storms is likely to develop around Hill City to east of Dodge City about 18-20z and make slow progress east as individual storm cells drift north. Later in the day, and probably well after sunset, the complex is indicated to become meso-scale and pound eastern KS with very severe storms that could include massive rainfalls of 100-150 mms and very large hail.

The upper set-up is not advancing east very quickly so that action will die out and the front will reload on Friday a bit further north so the chase may be up into central Nebraska at that point.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

bit off topic but if anyone wants to read some detail on that storm try Weather from R Met Soc for May 2008. There is an account of how it formed and the devastation it caused at Greensburg.its 5 pages so can't really copy and download, over and above copyright issues.

www.rmets.org if you want a copy as I'm sure they would be happy to sell one.

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

Looks to be gearing up to be an eventful day here's the latest visible satellite image.

The IR image shows the cold front quite clearly stretching from Wyoming all the way down to the borders

of Arizona/New Mexico.

.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

This will need to be watched very closely, with higher levels of cape the shear won't need to be quite as extreme to get those top end strength tornadoes, though the lower level shear values aren't bad at all in this respect. Should see some explosive convection once the cap breaks. There certainly are worrying comprasions to Greensburg just hope the outcome isn't nearly as bad...

Could well see a high risk upgrade soon IMO.

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Yes indeed Kold, similar risk area and set-up to the 04/05/07 Greensburg tornado day. Looks like there will be some very severe cyclic supercells developing later today across the risk areas with chance of strong long-track tornadoes, picking a target in such a large risk zone - from TX Panhandle right upto Wern Nebraska is in the firing line, SPC Moderate risk areas are often not exclusively where severe supercells will be, will be a challenge - though pointers are that Wern Central KS will be the area to be.

Currently the winds are nicely backed to the SE/ESE across Kansas before the dry line moves in later from the west, dew points are on a steady rise in to the mid-60s already over KS, 70F Tds over Nern OK now looking at current obs:

post-1052-1211467270_thumb.png

The tongue of rich moisture return up towards SWern NE will produce a very unstable environment once the cap breaks, with large amounts of CAPE to release:

post-1052-1211467523_thumb.png - The Tds for 00z or 6pm local time show the dry line arriving from west into Wern KS

post-1052-1211467540_thumb.png

it's looking like storms will develop intially over SWW NE then develop further south eventually down the dry line and perhaps east along the warm front, as the cap holds on last further south. Could be a case of moving south and side stepping on different storms.

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Really excited about today, currently in Goodland and about to head South and East, expecting initiation noprth of Dodge City

Paul S

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

Good luck guys. I've been way too busy at work to have more than a glancing look at this setup but those risk maps are awfully similar to last year aren't they. I'll certainly be following this in about half an hours time when I get back. Hopefully I won't be up too late and the storms get their act together before midnight over here :p

It's amazing that some areas in KS are in the highlighted risk zone for the next 6 days... Looks like you'll never have to drive too far for some severe weather this week and you'll be absolutely knackered by the end of it. You'll be praying for a death ridge after 6 days of storm chasing I bet :p

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Posted
  • Location: south east London
  • Location: south east London

just for info we have the guy from ITV tagging us today so shall be fun an added bonus for the guys we are heading southeast at the mo

Will udate later

Ian

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

First tornado warning for Weld county NE Colorado.

WFUS55 KBOU 221718

TORBOU

COC123-221800-

O.NEW.KBOU.TO.W.0004.080522T1718Z-080522T1800Z

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO

1118 AM MDT THU MAY 22 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHWESTERN WELD COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO

* UNTIL NOON MDT

* AT 1117 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 5 MILES EAST OF

FORT LUPTON...OR 23 MILES SOUTH OF GREELEY. THIS STORM WAS MOVING

NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

PLATTEVILLE...MILTON RESERVOIR...MILLIKEN...MEAD...GILCREST...

FREDERICK...FORT LUPTON AND FIRESTONE.

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

Yikes, what a classic look on radar, despite it travelling in a very unusual direction. Reports of a large Tornado on the ground at the moment in an area which is generally fairly well populated. This may be a sign of things to come later.... Let's hope so for the teams sake but out in the plains of Kansas rather than the northern Denver suburbs....

post-1731-1211478604_thumb.png

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Yep there are reports from watchers that a tornado on the ground as you say Gorky and yeah you can't exactly miss that meso either for that matter, very nice wrap it has...and its not even peak heating yet either!

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

Heres a nice 3D image of that cell Nathan in Weld county.

Courtesy of severestudios

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

I have to get GRLevel2 Analyst Edition at some point :p Looks like if the storm holds together it will be entering downtown Windsor in about 10 minutes. This could be a bad one.... Hopefully it cycles very soon otherwise this will be nasty.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Looks like it may have moved through the extreme western part of Windsor though going to have to wait for reports from local observers, though should be noted that radar did show the tornado weaking a little as it went through. high resolution radar looks amazing by the way, you could easily see where the tornado was on the image I've just seen on easternuswx.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Kansas set-up about as expected, would imagine ITV crew would want to see Greensburg in any case, eventual tornado development appears most likely between there and Great Bend KS after 21z.

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Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Tornadoey
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire - 80m ASL

Video of an absolutely massive wedge was just shown on here. Was amazing footage. About the fattest wedge in terms of width:height ratio I've ever seen.

http://www.9news.com/video/player_live_16x9.aspx

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Yep its a big tornado here is the report from observers:

1802 8 W GREELEY WELD CO 4042 10490 DIRECT HIT ON STATE FARM BUILDING. CARS TOSSED OFF OF ROAD. TREES DOWN. SWIFT COMPANY ROOF TORN OFF. TORNADO 3/4 TO 1 MILE WIDE (BOU)

Also got another one on the ground:

AT 1223 PM MDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED A TORNADO

4 MILES WEST OF DACONO...OR 24 MILES NORTH OF DENVER. THIS STORM

WAS MOVING NORTH AT 33 MPH.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Can't edit the earlier post, have revised risk box to Garden City KS ESE to Greensburg, then from those two points NNW to the I-70.

Live coverage of the Denver area tornado on CNN, appears massive F4 at least, very large hail in the video coverage, probably major damage to towns of Windsor and Wellington CO. Track is NNW.

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Posted
  • Location: Antrim, N Ireland
  • Location: Antrim, N Ireland

Another big cell exploding to the SE of Fort Morgan - worth keeping an eye on it.

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

Couple of images of the Weld tornado.

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Posted
  • Location: Antrim, N Ireland
  • Location: Antrim, N Ireland
Couple of images of the Weld tornado.

JESUS.....ominous signs of a very very dangerous day ahead

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

On 1845z radar, developing potential tornadic cells SSW of Garden City, moving towards a line from Garden City to Scott City KS. Upper set-up has shown signs of stalling or slight retrograde motion and track on these might be an unusual due north with very slight west of due north tendency (from 175 deg in other words), however line may back build, so tornadic risk area will net move from 190 deg. Would target Friend to Kalvesta area N to NE of Garden City.

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

Tornado watch #335.

TornadoWatch - 0300Z

WWUS20 KWNS 221859

SEL5

SPC WW 221859

KSZ000-NEZ000-230300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 335

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

150 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN KANSAS KANSAS

EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...

THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE

POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE

MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF

MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO 55 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF DODGE CITY KANSAS.

FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH

OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR

TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 334..

Severe thunderstorm warning for SW Kansas lookin like it'll turn tornadic very soon.

SvrTstormWarning - 22/2000Z

WUUS53 KDDC 221858

SVRDDC

KSC055-081-222000-

O.NEW.KDDC.SV.W.0074.080522T1856Z-080522T2000Z

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS

156 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

WESTERN FINNEY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

NORTH CENTRAL HASKELL COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 155 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO

GOLF BALL SIZE...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS

STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF PLYMELL...MOVING NORTH AT 38

MPH. ANOTHER SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GARDEN

CITY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

PLYMELL...

GARDEN CITY...

HOLCOMB...

RURAL RESIDENCES OF NORTHERN HASKELL AND WESTERN FINNEY COUNTIES.

Edited by NL
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