METO UK Further Outlook

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Like the BBC forecast, I thought we should pin the METO monthly forecast, and use the same thread for discusion.

Released Friday 18th November

Valid for 21 November to 18 December 2005

A dry start is expected but with night frosts and fog keeping temperatures below average. A change is likely from later in the first week as spell of patchy rain gives way to a cold, unsettled northerly airflow. The southwest seeing the best of the sunshine, the north and east having most of the rain or showers, which will easily turn to snow on hills. Still some frost at night. Temperatures mostly below normal and decidedly cold in any strong winds in the east. The second week is likely to carry on with this general cold northerly theme. For the rest of the period winds are likely to come from the southwest to bring milder but unsettled conditions across all parts, with bands of rain or showers moving eastwards. But still some sunshine at times for most areas.

Updated every two weeks, on alternate Fridays.

Courtesy of The Met Office, which can be found HERE

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Again, so far so good from the METO, although only forecast on Friday. I'm now hoping that their later part of their forecast is wrong http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/cool.gif

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Thank you to Mr DD on another thread.

The latest from the METO, released on Friday 02nd December 2005

Valid for 05 December 2005 to 01 January 2005

After a showery start to the week it is expected to turn generally drier with just a slight risk of the odd spot of showery rain in the east. Temperatures mostly below average leading to night frosts with patchy fog. The signal for second week is for lower overall pressure and less settled conditions but with rainfall very variable across the country, but many places drier than normal. A significant change is indicated for the final two weeks of the year. Dominant winds could well be from the west or southwest indicating very unsettled conditions. Periods of rain or showers crossing the country but also some brighter spells. Temperatures by day average or a little above but mostly above average at night, minimising the risk of widespread frosts.

Courtesy of the METO, which can be found HERE

Quite similar to the BBC monthly forecast issued four days ago. The main difference being the temperature in the later two weeks. Although neither go for cold, METO seem to be looking at above average CET, where the BBC were looking at a possible slightly below average CET.

Both do agree however that overnight frosts dont look that widespread in general.

I think the monthly forecast issued by the BBC next monday will be interesting, and whether it varies from the METO.

[shuggee]

Just spotted this at http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/o...k/replace.html

Replacement of four-week forecast

As of Friday 16 Dec 2005 users of the web site will find that the four-week forecast we previously published has been replaced by the UK further outlook, which covers up to a two-week period.

The reasons for this are:

it provides extra detail not included in the four-week forecast;

higher confidence in shorter-period forecasts;

it provides improved level of information for users;

it can be updated more regularly, which can take into account changing weather patterns;

it has received positive feedback from customers who have already tested it.

The forecast will be updated on Monday and Friday afternoon, the previous four-week forecast was only updated once a fortnight. A full monthly outlook is also available.

And here is the first UKFO:

Valid for Wed 21 Dec 2005 to Fri 30 Dec 2005

There is some uncertainty in this period however, there are no clear signs of anything particularly extreme. The most likely scenario is for spells of cloud, strong winds and rain to be interspersed with settled periods, with bright or sunny spells by day, and frost and perhaps fog patches by night. The wet and windy periods will see temperatures near or rather above average, whilst the more settled interludes will see temperatures near or rather below average, especially where overnight frosts are quite hard.

[kold weather]

Thats a good thing and if it provides more detail then there is nothing wrong with that!

[johnholmes]

Thank you to Mr DD on another thread.

The latest from the METO, released on Friday 02nd December 2005

Courtesy of the METO, which can be found HERE

Quite similar to the BBC monthly forecast issued four days ago. The main difference being the temperature in the later two weeks. Although neither go for cold, METO seem to be looking at above average CET, where the BBC were looking at a possible slightly below average CET.

Both do agree however that overnight frosts dont look that widespread in general.

I think the monthly forecast issued by the BBC next monday will be interesting, and whether it varies from the METO.

How can it vary when its the same Met Office that issue the forecast?

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

How can it vary when its the same Met Office that issue the forecast?

Sorry John. I mis-interpreted the BBC 'monthly' summary at the end of the forecast, as their summary for the last two weeks (or the forecasts issued I was discussing).

Therefore, you are actually correct, and both (forecast issued on the 02/12 (METO) and 05/12 (BBC)) were going for a mild last two weeks of the year.

[shuggee]

Here's Monday's updated UK Further Outlook:

Valid for Valid for Sat 24 Dec 2005 to Mon 02 Jan 2006

The indications are that there will be a good deal of dry, settled weather across the country during the period as an area of high pressure becomes established, although a fair amount of cloud also seems likely. Initially the high pressure is expected to be positioned to the north of the UK, perhaps allowing a few rain showers to affect some eastern areas. Later in the period, however, it may well be western or northwestern areas that have the greatest chance of any rain. Under these generally quiet conditions areas of mist and fog are also likely. Temperatures should gradually become colder through the period with an increasing chance of frost and some patches of freezing fog.

Courtesy of the Met Office at http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/outlook/index.html

[Michael Fishermans Friend]

hhmmmm! another 'safe' forecast from the Beeb once again.

[shuggee]

Here's today's (Friday) updated 'Further Outlook' from the Meto.

Valid for Wed 28 December 2005 to Fri 6 January 2006

The most likely scenario is for a cold east or northeast airstream across the country early in the period with snow showers affecting eastern parts in particular. As we move towards the New Year all available indications are for the cold conditions to have been replaced by locally rather mild weather with Atlantic fronts moving eastwards bringing spells of rain. However, this process may be delayed for a time in the southeast. The rain is likely to be heaviest and most prolonged in the northwest with the best of the drier weather further southeast although the exact timing of the change to these less cold, generally changeable weather conditions is likely to be problematical.

Courtesy of UK Met Office at: http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/outlook/index.html

[shuggee]

Today's update:

There will be spells of relatively mild, wet and windy weather crossing Scotland, Northern Ireland and northern England during the first 5 days. The rest of England and Wales, rather breezy, some fronts moving southwards across all areas, but rainfall not amounting to much. However, this will lead to overnight frosts in some parts as winds temporarily ease. A quieter, settled spell of weather is then expected to develop across England and Wales during the 2nd week, the light winds leading to more widespread overnight frost and fog, and colder than average temperatures. The north, particularly Scotland, is likely to continue less settled and milder.

From the Met Office at:

http://www.metoffice.com/weather/europe/uk...look/index.html

[shuggee]

Latest update:

High pressure over Europe is likely to lead to a cold start for many southern and eastern areas, with strong easterly winds and a mix of rain, sleet and snow (mostly small amounts). There will be somewhat milder conditions to the west and northwest, with southerly winds and rain, and near normal temperatures, and this is likely to spread northeastwards early in the period, giving snow on hills for a time as it does so. Thereafter the balance between the colder air over the continent and milder Atlantic air looks set to continue, southwestern areas of Britain probably continuing quite mild and changeable, with rain and strong winds much of the time, whilst northeastern areas valiantly hold on to colder temperatures with cloud, and still with some sleet or snow a possibility.

From http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/outlook/index.html

[Rollo]

So according to the Meto we look like getting just about anything.

[shuggee]

LOL Rollo - quel surprise. Love the use of the word 'valiantly' - perhaps some secret cold ramper got to do the final edit?!

[Nick F]

So according to the Meto we look like getting just about anything.

Yes, they can't really go wrong with their latest outlook today by suggesting a balance between cold to the East and mild to the West over the UK, a good get out clause if it goes drastically either way cold or mild, as they are hinting at either in that outlook to affect the UK over that period till mid -Jan http://nwstatic.co.uk/forum/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/dry.gif

[shuggee]

Today's update:

Valid for Wed 11 Jan to Fri 20 Jan 2006

Low pressure over the Atlantic is likely to be the driving force for the UK weather for at least the first 5 days. From around the middle of the month there is a higher probability that colder air from the continent will affect at least England and Wales. This scenario leads to an unsettled start to the period for all areas with periods of rain or showers alternating with drier and brighter or clearer intervals. This would bring near normal temperatures and local night frosts, average or above average rainfall and generally normal amounts of sunshine. Strong winds could affect the west and north at times. From the middle of the period there is an indication for England and Wales to turn colder and cloudier with a threat of wintry showers in the east, while the west turns drier. Scotland and perhaps Northern Ireland are more likely to stay milder and unsettled.

From:

http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/outlook/index.html

[Yeti]

Yes, they can't really go wrong with their latest outlook today by suggesting a balance between cold to the East and mild to the West over the UK, a good get out clause if it goes drastically either way cold or mild, as they are hinting at either in that outlook to affect the UK over that period till mid -Jan

I suppose people are more likely to believe them this way - the MO has a dreadful reputation along with the Beeb

[MAF]

Valid for Wed 11 Jan to Fri 20 Jan 2006

Low pressure over the Atlantic is likely to be the driving force for the UK weather for at least the first 5 days. From around the middle of the month there is a higher probability that colder air from the continent will affect at least England and Wales. This scenario leads to an unsettled start to the period for all areas with periods of rain or showers alternating with drier and brighter or clearer intervals. This would bring near normal temperatures and local night frosts, average or above average rainfall and generally normal amounts of sunshine. Strong winds could affect the west and north at times. From the middle of the period there is an indication for England and Wales to turn colder and cloudier with a threat of wintry showers in the east, while the west turns drier. Scotland and perhaps Northern Ireland are more likely to stay milder and unsettled.

Well they are certainly getting better with these outlooks then they did with the monthly ones. i have checked the last couple of them and they turned out to be reasonably accurate.

[shuggee]

The latest from http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/outlook/index.html

Valid for Sat 14 January 2006 to Mon 23 January 2006

Changeable for a time in all parts as spells of relatively mild, wet and windy weather move eastwards across the British Isles. The spells of rain interspersed by drier, perhaps brighter interludes but with showers, these more especially in the north and west with some snow likely over the Scottish Mountains. Later in the period the unsettled, relatively mild weather tends to become confined to northwestern areas. Further south and east more settled, quieter weather with nearer normal temperatures develops with variable amounts of cloud allowing some bright or sunny spells after the clearance of overnight frost and fog.

[shuggee]

Today's offering:

Valid for Wed 18 Jan 2006 to Fri 27 Jan 2006

A very unsettled spell of weather is likely for all parts of the UK in this period. The dominant pressure pattern sees a succession of deep low pressure centres in the Iceland area and these are expected to drive bands of rain or showers eastwards or southeastwards across the UK at regular intervals. The heaviest of the rain and the strongest winds are likely in the north and west while the southeastern half is more likely to see the best of any drier and brighter interludes. Rainfall amounts are set to be at least average, perhaps above average in the northwest. Temperatures mild or very mild to start but returning to nearer normal around the middle of the period. There is chance of the south turning drier later as pressure builds but the dominant signal is for the unsettled weather to persist through much of the period.

From: http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/outlook/index.html

[shuggee]

Here's what's on offer today -

Valid for Sat 21 Jan 2006 to Mon 30 Jan 2006

The start of the period is likely to be dominated by a mild west to southwesterly airflow, bringing a good deal of cloud and rain and strong winds, especially to northern and western parts, whilst further south and east the weather is somewhat drier but still cloudy and mild. This mild spell of weather is expected to be relatively shortlived as the west to southwesterly airflow weakens, to be replaced by a cooler south to southeasterly airflow as pressure rises over Scandinavia and eastern Europe. This will bring quieter and rather colder condition to England and Wales, especially the south and east, with an increasing chance of overnight frost and fog, while over Scotland and Northern Ireland it continues to be unsettled and milder.

From: http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/outlook/index.html

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

Thanks Shugs. Some regular updates at the moment, which is fantastic really.

Perhaps they are seeing a change as well?

[shuggee]

Yes - interesting this morning that two consequetive GFS runs (admittedley in Narnia Land) and the METO Further Outlook prog in a pressure build to re-introduce a block to our ENE. However, I have to say that if two consequetive GFS runs and this outlook suggested mild SSW'lys, and low pressure to the south many would say it ought to be ignored.

[Shiny_Bottom_1]

I think there is some milder weather on its way in a couple of days, which, although i'm not sure, is from a combo of south and westerly type directions.

I think what the METO have picked up on, in regards to the s/se winds after the milder spell, in some agreement in the first movement of the high. I'd probably say that, due to it not being included, they arent too confident of the second movement (which could potentially bring in cooler conditions).

A nice summary I think of the next 5 days really, with a 'possability' of a change towards the end of the forecast period (although probably not till the next forecast).

[shuggee]

Today's offering:

Valid for Wed 25 Jan 2006 to Fri 3 Feb 2006

Easterly winds will develop early in this period as high pressure takes control to the north of the United Kingdom. Many areas will be noticeably colder with widespread frost expected. Some patches of freezing fog will also occur and these may linger all day in places. There is also a threat of snow at times, particularly in eastern areas. After temperatures fall to mostly below normal early in this period, a few very cold days are expected. The probability of milder weather then returning looks low at this stage.

From http://www.meto.gov.uk/weather/europe/uk/outlook/index.html