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nsrobins

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    Wickham, S Hampshire, UK
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    Storms, storm chasing, storm spotting, forecasting, etc

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  1. When does a convective discussion become a ‘tornado warning’? Answer - when an ill-informed journalist on a local rag completely misinterprets the information. Tornado warning issued for Dorset WWW.BOURNEMOUTHECHO.CO.UK A TORNADO warning has been issued for Dorset today.
  2. The trough and associated squall modelled to move across the SW and into the SE and EA later tomorrow (Sat 28th Oct) needs watching. Potential for bow elements and embedded structure given the parameters. GFS high res returning up to 500 0-3km SRH across the south at 15Z.
  3. Mesoscale trends look favorable for a couple of discrete supercells in far NE MO, initiating at around 22Z and tracking NE in an environment supporting top end SRH. The last two HRRR runs on simulated has a tornadic cell initiating around Edina, MO and moving towards Burlington, IL by 00Z. DPs already approaching 66F into central MO now. The current activity should be monitored for an OFB further enhancing the vectors. The nocturnal risk into AR later is also looking serious and might well end up as the headline maker.
  4. Hi - I can help you with this and indeed it is frustrating. The data in the Wiltshire/W Hampshire area is augmented by the radar site near West Dean, a few miles SW of Salisbury. This station has had a problem for quite a while where a quadrant of the scan in a wedge pointing east is corrupted, resulting in 'lines' and wedges of false enhancements and diminished returns. It doesn't happen all the time but it can be annoying when tracking fine detail and intensities.
  5. This location is in far SW TN for 21Z tomorrow from the latest NAM. A classic supercell signature with long-looped hodograph. The HRRR analysis will prove interesting when this comes into range.
  6. Can you reference that as it’s clearly incorrect. ENSO still in La Niña phase (waning) and not forecast to go neutral until March at the earliest. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
  7. They weren’t that much lower than -5. After the initial Pm/Am incursion, uppers were generally between -4 and -6. The 11th and 12th had slack winds under a col which produced some very cold nights and very low surface temperatures. This contributed to the brief heavy snowfall on the 13th despite the ‘marginal’ uppers. Reanalysis charts are available here: Reanalysis archives WETTERZENTRALE.DE Reanalysis archives of the past decades covering Europe.
  8. I called it a sleeper day as I’ve been pretty much asleep for most of the season so far ‘Some’ similarities with the Dodge City day 24th May 2016.
  9. Thurs 21st May Could be a ‘sleeper’ day in SW KS with a very sharp trough/DL forming in the TX panhandle - 65F dps generate >3000 cape in ESE surface flow. I’d be lunching in Dodge City KS.
  10. Talking about this evening - ‘backdoor’ risk ramping up for far SW MO and far SE KS.
  11. Mon 4th May aside some meagre offerings for the next 6 days minimum as a high pressure rules - and GFS has a strong cold plunge Friday scouring out what gulf moisture there is for a further few days. I would be flying tomorrow. Actually quite pleased I’m not to be honest.
  12. 18Z meso returned 4500+ of surface CAPE near and east of OKC. Big loaded gun situation this evening.
  13. SPC have introduced a 10% tor risk for E OK and far W AR this evening in response to revised soundings just to the E of the frontal boundary. Storm Prediction Center Apr 28, 2020 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products...
  14. I wouldn't discount a couple monster supercells now in C OK this evening going on recent trends and HRRR in particular ticking the kinematics up a notch or two. With 4000+ of SCAPE available to any parcels that break the strong looking cap these storms will explode. Although shear isn't screaming tornado to me there's always the chance of subtle boundary interaction, a bit of backing of surface flow and bingo. Virtual target Bartlesville, OK for 21Z initiation (potentially)
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