• Content count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation

202 Excellent

About virtualsphere

  • Birthday 06/15/1978

Profile Information

  • Gender Male
  • Location Carmarthenshire

Recent Profile Visitors

4,629 profile views
  1. Cooler Atlantic

    Thanks for replying - I'd not thought about the date but that makes sense.
  2. Cooler Atlantic

    Presumably you'd expect some cooling in the northern hemisphere at this time of year due to winter and the lag in ocean cooling compared to the surface? Or is this not the case? Not sure about the southern hemisphere though - if my thinking is correct you'd expect warming to show, which those charts don't. I also wonder if the colours are a little misleading, because the blue and yellow in the centre of the chart are visibly different but could just relate to small differences depending on whether the temperature is just below or just above the mid-point. Not disagreeing with anyone, just an observation which could explain why the second chart appears to be so much cooler.
  3. Spring 2016

    Although this is very true, it seems to also be a strange quirk of the statistics that these things often seem to repeat quite quickly - e.g. April 2007 was the warmest by a long way, but then beaten in 2011; a string of colder than average Decembers in the 2000s was followed by December 2010, after which we've endured four milder wet ones on the trot culminating in the record breaking mild & wet of 2015; after a string of pretty wet summers we had 2 decent summers in a row in 2013 & 2014 and so on. We might therefore be more likely to have an 'extreme' March following 2012/13 rather than an extreme May, which seems to have produced nothing notable in recent years.  Having said that I'd be less confident of a March 2013 repeat, as that spell followed on from a notable cold spell in January, and more blocked weather the previous few winters.  Since autumn 2013 similar cold / blocked spells in the winter half of the year seem to be harder to come by as the weather seems more zonal in general.  It's got to change at some point though!
  4. I'll risk bombing out of the contest with a guess of 2.7C.   I'm hoping the likely mild conditions as we approach the end of January will be replaced by something more seasonal, as the PV moves away and we see an El Nino 1983-esque February rather than a repeat of 1998.
  5. Winter 2015/16.

    It really has been grim here. Today was remarkable simply for being the first completely dry day of the winter so far and we're over half way through!  If tomorrow is also dry, as expected, it will be the first time we've had two consecutive dry days since Nov 2nd.  It was nice to see the sun again today also - been very dull recently.  
  6. What is a snow squall?

    A nice description of a snow squall in April 1908 from Philip Eden: The thundersnow event of 28th January 2004 being a more recent example:  
  7. Cooler Atlantic

    Thanks- interesting read. I did wonder about a possible solar cycle link when I saw the 11 year interval between the years you listed.
  8. Cooler Atlantic

    Was there a cold anomaly in 2004 also, or is it just a coincidence that 1982 / 1993 anomalies were separated by 11 years and then 22 to 2015?
  9. Wales - Weather Chat

    Possibly some good news - compared to the chart I posted above, it now looks like it might get a bit drier in the medium term between Christmas and New Year.  Not much colder though - more a gradual climbdown from exceptional warmth to slightly above average.
  10. Winter 2015/16.

    I'd gladly take that over the current weather here - I don't mind the idea of a record-breaking warm December but I'm not keen on the relentless wet weather and lack of sunshine we've experienced since the beginning of November.   The problem with warm temperatures at this time of year is that they generally come from cloudy, wet conditions associated with a S-SW flow.  I'd actually prefer a warm January than December, as Christmas just seems much more seasonal when the weather is cold and frosty, even if there's no snow.   Sadly any change to anticyclonic weather looks just that little bit too late to fit in with the festive season this year, which is a shame as this will be the fourth similar December in succession after a great run of seasonal Decembers in the 2000s leading up to 2010.  Last year wasn't too bad in comparison, but 2012 and 2013 were dire in the run up to Christmas and this year looks like following suit.  On a positive note, though, it'll be good to save on the heating bills!
  11. Yes, based on the El Nino you could go either way with Feb.  Just looking at Feb 1983 & 1998 the surface pressure patterns in the NH are fairly similar, except in the vicinity of the UK which brought very different conditions to our shores.    This is where the expertise of the NW forecast team, and also RJS / BFTP and all the other long range forecasters comes into its own - what other drivers will influence the pattern further into the winter, e.g. SSW, and how will these affect our part of the globe?  It's a good illustration of how difficult it is to try and predict the weather that far in advance, so credit is due to all who have a go.   Still all to play for later this winter, despite the El Nino.
  12. Wales - Weather Chat

    Make the most of any colder weather now, as it's due to get mild again shortly and unfortunately looks very wet in the medium term: For those looking for something colder there's still scope for the models to change before Christmas, but not looking too promising at this stage.
  13. Autumn 2015

    Between 1910 and 1925 you could expect a sub-3C November every 5 years or so - and then none since!  Rather than a gradual trend towards warmth, quite a dramatic turn away from cold Novembers from 1925, then a fairly static period, and then a dramatic lurch to warmth from 1994 onwards.
  14.   I started a thread about this in the storm forum a few years back: The 2009 event was the biggest, with several very close strikes which knocked our power off twice.  In 1997 we just had a single strike (although a very loud one!).