Radiating Dendrite

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About Radiating Dendrite

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    Winter Slave
  • Birthday 06/08/1986

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  • Gender Male
  • Location Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences January 1987 / July 2006

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  1. Think people have started to call it a day. To be honest it is pointless commenting on the GFS when it shows a completely different outlook 6hrs later. 
  2. I disagree. They only seem less accurate because of greater hope being placed in the medium range due to nothing showing in the reliable. 
  3. To be honest I see little but cold rain and wind......maybe some wet snow in the north to low ground.  Some individuals continue to bang the drum for narnia but one gets the sense they are only trying their hardest to make a mediocre output tie up with their previous predictions. 
  4. Must admit; I'm getting model fatigue now. Think I preferred the old days when I didn't even know what the GFS was. I would read the five day forecast and if something wintery popped up it usually happened - no wild goose chase. Actually looking forward to warmth and light now. Wind and rain is good for nothing! 
  5. To be fair Chris a SSW does not guarantee cold for the UK. It all depends on how the northern hemisphere sets up after the warming - we could still end up mild. 
  6. South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - A new year

    -1.2c here in Purley (south Croydon) at the moment. Think our problem will be how much precipitation is left on the front.
  7. South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - A new year

    Looking at the radar I think it may just be clouds by the time it gets down here.  The precipitation seems to be dying - really need it to start reinvigorating. 
  8. Do you think we will see a clean breakdown and return to mobility or a messy interim period before more amplification GP?
  9. The problem comparing back to 1938 is the fact that it formed in a different location and under a completely different set of atmospheric conditions. 
  10. Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

    I was led to believe that the 0c degree isotherm was good enough for low level snow on the continent due to it being a continental landmass and not an island - lower DPs etc. 
  11. Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

    That is certainly what JH is always telling us. Pick one run a day and stick with that. 
  12. Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

    I believe he is saying we should expect a temporary strengthening of the vortex before it significantly weakens / collapses in response to warming. 
  13. Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

    ECM still a little grouchy this morning. High pressure to our West, then on top before is sinks south at the end of the run into the slug position.  Hopefully we will see little updates throughout today with a more pleasing ECM later. Must admit, I am starting to fancy our chances of a surprise easterly; will not take a lot given current output.
  14. Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

    It's not really a breakdown though as we never actually go into the freezer. All we see is a chilly spell with night frosts and +4/5 by day in the South. Then the low moves in from the South West bringing a snow to rain event for the North while in the south we go back to just boring wet. The wild swings imply that no model has the right idea yet.....they always struggle with what is a very complex set up. It will me a million times different at day 10 to what is shown now. 
  15. Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

    Really would not worry about the uppers. They tend to be colder than shown by the models and -6 to -8 at this time of year given the set up will be plenty cold enough!  This is the very best time for this to happen!