damianslaw
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Everything posted by damianslaw
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raz.org.rain Would be good to know how many wet springs were followed by dry warm summers, its not a combo I think happens that much.
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
damianslaw replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A theme of the last 9 months has been a strong iberian/euro high trying hard to push north, but quite strong heights to our north as well, sometimes NW, sometimes NE, but never positioning themselves to allow northern blocking to exert a hold against the atlantic. The effect, the atlantic trough has been squeezed inbetween on a collision course for the UK, right now is a good example, July notably so. Sometimes the trough has elongated and been forced back on itself to our west, pushing in mild southerlies and south westerlies.. Feb a good example. We do seem to be in a never ending washing cycle of low pressure spinning around and around over and near the UK. Back to the Easter 4 day period, mixed in a word, variable conditions UK wide, unusually the far north may end up being the driest place. Good Friday - very showery, some places could be plagued by heavy ones, others may escape dry. Rather cloudy and temps average. Easter Saturday - less showery, but still threat for anywhere, brighter breaks and will feel mild in any sun and light winds Easter Sunday - perhaps the best chance of staying dry, and mildest day of the 4 days. Could be very decent. Easter Monday - could be quite wet in places. A little cooler. -
March 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
damianslaw replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
CET may rise to 8.3 degrees thanks to milder maxima next couple of days. The lack of frost in central and southern parts has been notable this month, but no surprise given the persistant low heights. One of the most low pressure mean Marches I reckon. -
Summer8906 Ah yes couldn't quite remember how long the warm dry spell lasted in 1998, I confuse it with 2008 which there were close parallels with winter- spring- summer wise, but other than first half May was probably worse.
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Summer8906 2024 so far has followed a very similiar trajectory to 1998, Dec 97 included... April was a chilly wet affair, but we saw a 10 day very warm sunny dry spell early-mid May. Sadly it all imploded and the second half of May and whole summer was cool and wet.. it was a super el nino followed by quick la nina transition... again very similiar to 23-24....
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Penrith Snow A classic surprise snowfall, can often pop up in spring. All due to a small low feature with cold air wrapped in, the track of the low meant places on its west flank were fed the cold air, hence why the SW and Wales had snow, alas as its tracked north, here its just rain. Arriving in the evening helped as well combined with rate of precipitation enabled evaporative cooling to take hold. Just shows never cast aside chance of snow until the season is out, and we have April and May yet. Had it arrived on Sunday for Easter, it would have made far more headlines, and further east no doubt!
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
damianslaw replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ANYWEATHER Can just about make out the UK amongst the blue.. Will give firmer thoughts on Easter 4 day period later, it has chopped and changed somewhat, will we see at least one dry day? -
Some parts of the SW seem to be experiencing most snow of season so far this eve, 27 March!!!
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Very little, well no mention of snow potential at low levels on any forecasts this eve, yet, areas close to the coast in balmy Devon are getting some.. are the forecasters asleep, caught out big time. I see the met has issued a snow warning for Wales, I think in past 10 minutes for 1am to 7am, what a nonsense, far too late for anyone to take notice, reminds me of the amber snow debacle here on 2 Dec when it was too late.
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UK Rain Is There Any Sign Of It Ending?
damianslaw replied to Fen Wolf's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
BlueSkies_do_I_see Yes mid March to mid June is for here at least our 'dry' slot.. by late June chances of dry weather ebb away quick. -
Next drier than average season
damianslaw replied to Summer8906's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
cheese Need to re-locate the UK, being at the edge of warming atlantic and prevailing SW wind dragged from the depths of the tropics is a recipe for rain and more rain. -
March 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
damianslaw replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
WYorksWeather Oh my goodness what on earth produced such a cold spring, to see 2 months 3 degrees below average back to back is probably unprecedented, a major SSW affect perhaps! April at 4.7 degrees! What! -
March 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
damianslaw replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
WYorksWeather Yes south westerly months Nov - Apr will always result in very mild CET values, but in 'feel' don't register as mild, namely due to lack of sun, rain or low cloud and often windy to boot. Sadly we see far too many such months... -
Penrith Snow Agree, however, the winters mentioned and you forgot 13-14 are amongst the lowest of the lowest snow and cold wise. The great proportion of winter 23-24 was dire from a cold/ snow perspective, rescued by 3 preety decent weeks, 30 Nov - 6 Dec, and 6-19 Jan. February was abysmal.
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Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
damianslaw replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Cheshire Freeze In the Lake District April on average is the driest month, its not a month renowned for being predominantly atlantic driven.. Alas the outlook remains very unsettled into April. Trying to recall the last time we endured such a low pressure dominated period from the start of the year.. right into April. Typically a high pressure spell sets up some stage in the spring.. hold that hope.. -
March 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
damianslaw replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Up here in the Lake District a thick winter jacket is needed Dec to March not necessarily on account of temp but more the endless rain combined with wind at times, a light rain coat doesn't do the job of staying dry. Ive had my winter coat on most days, but should soon be exchanged for the lighter rain coat.. probably not until May fully.. -
March 2024 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
damianslaw replied to Roger J Smith's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Don Its the dank dampness of our climate in Nov- Mar that make it always feel cold. Not much difference in feel between a damp dank 5-6 degrees, and 9-10 degrees. Its the 'feel' of the weather that triggers a reaction to how we describe it. Many a dry day with no wind and sunshine in high single figures can 'feel' much warmer than a damp drab day in the low teens at this time of year. -
Model Output Discussion - 22nd Jan 2024 onwards
damianslaw replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
No posts in 7 hours, sense many are unenthused with what the models are currently showing, and feeling disappointed with easter now firmly coming into view ( if wanting predominantly dry conditions). No sugar coating things, Easter 24 unlikely to go down as memorable from either a heat or cold perspective. Its all just a bit underwhelming. Low pressure ruling the roost right through into April..Not a washout every day, some decent spells of dry weather possibly Sat and Sunday, but may be quite cloudy and breezy with it. Will firm up more tomorrow. Into April, heights to the NW but also a signal for heights to our SE, with the trough squeezed through the UK again, back to square one more slow moving low pressure from the SW, need a shake up.. -
Pick your Groundhog year of weather to relive
damianslaw replied to BlueSkies_do_I_see's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Cold lovers would rank first half of 2013 highly, all 6 months below average, a rarity, then an abrupt change in July to hot and sunny and dry. August was ok. The autumn was wet though and Dec terrible, very mild and very wet and stormy. July 13 marked a pivotal change from the colder more blocked southerly jet period that set in during May- June 07.. though the winter following was mild. We've been locked by and large into a mild period since. -
AWD I think it feels a very poor start namely because it has very much been more of the same mild gunk we've had since mid October with little variation. Lengthy dry periods have been by and large absent bar the spell in early-mid Jan which was relatively short but good for sunshine. The dull dank skies have outstayed their welcome. Spring growth is early this year, many trees don't look far off coming into leaf, probably 2-3 weeks ahead of average.