damianslaw

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About damianslaw

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  • Location Windermere 120m asl

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  1. The fells are white down to 500 metres at least, so won't have to venture far to see the white stuff whatever happens. A good decent dry spell is what we are after 3 months of constant wet. Mid Feb onwards often produces a drying out theme. Cold frosty conditions very welcome. Great winter walking conditions, crisp and even snow.
  2. Past winters discussion

    Remember the snowfall on the 27 Jan very well, it was a Saturday, we had about 3-4 inches. I don't remember a sudden thaw, but a gradual one, temps from the 28 Jan - 3 Feb hovered around 2-3 degree max, perhaps there were high dewpoints resulting in sublimation. Had we had a deeper cover I suspect it would haven't disappeared quite so quickly. Alas we had plenty more snowfalls to come, 5/6 Feb, 8 Feb, 18-20 Feb, 28 Feb/1 March, 12 March, late March and second week of April, May brought wintry sleety wet snow, and decent falls on higher ground.    
  3. Expect trough features to appear in the cold northerly flow Sunday onwards, these won't be picked up by the models until very short notice. Before then lots of uncertainty where the front will position itself on Saturday, based on today's charts, Peak District looks a good bet for some decent snow, but much of the southern part of the region away from the coast could see some falling (not necessarily settling on low ground), chance snow threat could head northwards if the front positions itself more to the north but this would lower the chance of snow in southern parts, conversely it might not even make it into the region resulting in a cold raw cloudy but dry day.  
  4. Past winters discussion

    Remember the winters of the 90's very well. In the main snowfall events were mostly shortlived and not especially disruptive with some exceptions though Early-Mid Feb 91- a very snowy cold period, disruptive snow for many especially the east, some places saw a 2 week cover and well over a foot. Nov 1993 - a cold snowy easterly later in the month, not especially disruptive but noteworthy Mid-late Feb 94 - disruptive snowfall for many, but did thaw quite quickly Winter 95/96 - coldest winter of the 90s, lots of disruptive snowfall especially in late Jan and early Feb Late Dec 96 - early Jan 97 - snowy easterlies and very cold, lengthy spell of lying snow There were many 1-2 day events where snow fell heavy settled but then quickly disappeared, 8 Dec 90 a good example. There were 7 winters that overall delivered little snow, only 90-91, 93-94, 95-96, 96-97 saw any especially lengthy cold snowy spells. I was at school from 1990-1996 and I remember being sent home due to snow on 4 occasions only! 8 Feb 91, 23 Feb 94, 25 Jan 95 ( a 5 inch fall that thawed that evening!) and most memorably 5 Feb 96 - school closed for a week!  
  5. Its a complex set up, reliable timeframe probably 72 hours tops, dare I say it only 60 hrs maybe. Difficult to forecast what happens thereafter as the position of the trough is unknown, also the depth of cold air injected from the NE. General theme is a cooling one with temps back to near average, but trending below by the end of the week in northern and probably central parts - unclear about southern parts in this respect. GFS showing a deep low moving in from the NW mid next week - along way off but we see a mid atlantic ridge behind it and some very cold uppers ejected out from NE Canada to the rear of the trough. Reading between the lines, there are signs we could see significant cold plunge from the NW by the end of the month and into early March.
  6. Past winters discussion

    The period roughly 10-25 Feb 1994 was a very snowy one for many, with surprise snowfalls. I remember the BBC being caught out a few times, and they struggled with sudden short-term changes, especially around the 21/22 when tropical maritime air was forecast to surge forwards, alas it was held back and we ended up with trough disruption and heavy snowfall in central and northern parts - we recorded nearly a foot of snow. The easterly episode conincided with half term week. Winter 93/94 over the northern half of the country was preety snowy overall and quite cold with lots of polar maritime air, indeed it was notably snowy on higher ground. It was a welcome winter in this respect for cold snow lovers, coming on the back of the snowless dry winter of 91/92, and largely mild winter of 92/93. Looking back since then, we've had quite a few cold periods either at the end of Feb or early March , 1995, 1996, 1998, 2001, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2010, 2013 thanks to northerly airstreams.  
  7. Yes we've seen negative NAO periods in many recent summers, significant and long lasting ones as well. Would not be surprised at all if we see a change to a negative NAO during March, and lasting a while, as there has been a propensity for negative and positive NAO states to be lengthy in duration over recent years.. The Cohen Blog suggests an increased chance of colder conditions back end of winter and into Spring, but yes there is uncertainty. I wouldn't dismiss the chances of the strat warming playing out favourably for a colder pattern as we enter spring.
  8. The region was prime spot on the 16 January compared to most other places.    
  9. Yes GFS showing significant trough disruption/slider low for the weekend, and cold uppers digging in from the NE, meaning a possible low level snow event for places on the northern side of the trough. I know we shouldn't mention BBC forecasts in this thread, but Matt Taylor did say snow on northern flank of low pressure come the weekend, but then glanced over the weekend, perhaps they are seeing the signals.. but right to be cautious. The major player appears to be the very strong Russian block, forcing low pressure to anchor south and disrupt and thus bolster developing heights to the north and enabling a quicker injection of cold uppers to our NE. Unlike earlier in the winter, once we get to mid Feb, heights to our NE often become much more difficult to cast aside and increasingly hold there own against the atlantic..
  10. Another rather bleak weekend, despite some bursts of blue sky this morning making for a brighter feel to things, the cold wind tempered the general feel. Heavy rain set in during middle of the afternoon making for a quick descent into dusk.. Yesterday turned out better than expected, we had light rain/drizzle until darkness then moderate rain, then it cleared. Snowline is roughly about 600 metres, but set to drop over the coming days, fingers crossed it will drop down to low levels by the end of the week. Decent snow conditions over the fells but pity we don't have a settled spell on the cards. Easterly winds come Friday making for very bitter conditions.
  11. Interesting model output today and for a change UKMO, ECM and GFS are all in agreement up to the 144 hr timeframe, and both ECM and GFS up to 240hrs, quite rare in recent weeks! What they show is a cooling trend, with low pressure taking a more southerly direct path over central Britain with ridge/small height development to our north, not a common development. Lots of rain for many but with temps around average for the time of year, freezing level quite low as well, with thicknesses hovering around the 528 dam line, dropping below this in the north, so good chance of snow to low levels perhaps and not necessarily Scotland only - a watch and see. In another winter, the synoptics shown today would likely yield a preety cold end to the week, with a cold pool to tap into to the north east, alas we don't have that at the moment, but it wouldn't take long for a cold pool to establish itself. However, both ECM and GFS are keen to sweep the weak height development aside and pull the azores back NE, but for a short duration with a preety potent PM blast thereafter, indeed with the very cold pool developing over NE Canada there is much logic in any NW feed during the second half of February being very cold indeed, enough to bring snow to many low levels in the north at least. So lots of interest today, possible slider low/trough disruption territory later next week, and then a possible potent PM attack the week after.  
  12. Oh dear - the headlines above are utter rubbish - coldest February on record, who is fooled by this stuff? Scotland other than higher ground won't see any snow this weekend, mins at best not even down to freezing... I don't know how they can get away with this... unfortunately some people no doubt are lulled into a wrong sense due to such sensationalist forecasts... its quite dangerous and irresponsible in the this sense and tabloids I feel should be regulated against producing such misleading stories, in the days when the internet wasn't around they were held to account much more I imagine..  
  13. Its a messy set up but the overall broad theme all models agree on is a westerly airstream reigning supreme, but more north of west rather than south. Temps levelling out very near average northern half of the country, a bit above further south. In these set ups expect short term developments, and it is very much borderline snow to low levels territory for the north, thicknesses hovering around the 528 dam line from Monday onwards for the foreseeable. Its not far off a wintry cold pattern, but shortwave activity to the NW looks like preventing a clean northerly source for the time being at least... we do have a very cold pool of air set to develop over NE Canada this will spawn low pressure and it is where and how low pressure systems and troughs develop in the mid atlantic which will determine how much polar air we can inject into the country. Indeed we are not far off seeing a similar pattern to late Jan/early Feb last year which for some was quite a cold wintry picture with transitory snowfalls and a run of frosts..  
  14. Another wet weekend forecast, oh joy! It will be the 11th consecutive weekend that has been wet.. and the vast majority have been very wet and sunless. What an awful period of weather we are enduring, its extraordinary.
  15. Past winters discussion

    A decent snowfall here - we had about 5 inches on a Saturday as well, however, it was the only measurable snowfall of the winter here. It came in the middle of a cold spell, and the snow stuck around for a few days, thawing gradually. Feb 12 was looking like a very cold month, but alas the second half was very mild, similar to 2009. Its a long time since we have seen a notably cold Feb. 1986 the last one. 1991 was very cold but not exceptionally so.. 1996 was cold without being very cold. We've had a quite a few Februaries in recent years that have flipped mid month. 1994 delivered a mild first half and a much colder snowier second half. 2005 produced a mildish first half much colder second half. I've mentioned 2009 and 2012 cold first halves milder second halves.