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The highest gusts from the Western Isles of Scotland, Stornoway Port, 85mph at 1.00am Stornoway, Met Office Site, 78mph at 2.00am Lacklee, Isle of Harris, 78mph at 12.19am Stornoway Airport, 76mph at 1.20am South Uist, Met Office Site, 75mph at 1.00am Castlebay Ferry Terminal, Isle of Barra, 74mph at 12.00am Lochmaddy Ferry Terminal, North Uist, 73mph at 11.55pm Breasclete, Isle of Lewis, 73mph at 6.19pm Marybank, Stornoway, 73mph at 2.04am Gravir, Isle of Lewis, 71mph at 6.34pm Tobson, Isle of Lewis, 70mph at 6.19pm & 6.24pm Benbecula Airport, 69mph at 12.20am Leverburgh, Isle of Harris, 68mph at 12.39am & 12.44am North Galson, Isle of Lewis, 68mph at 1.09am Eorodale, Isle of Lewis, 68mph at 1.54am Laxay, Isle of Lewis, 66mph at 12.44am Isle of Berneray, 65mph at 11.59pm, 12.34am & 12.39am Lower Bayble, Stornoway, 65mph at 1.24am Drimsdale, South Uist, 61mph at 5.44pm Garrabost, Stornoway, 60mph at 1.09am
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Pressure here got down to 964.8mb at 9.10pm and it's now rising to 965.5mb. We've had gusts around 40 to 50mph all evening, but according to the forecast, it will get worse over the next few hours.
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Some of the highest wind gusts so far up to 8pm across the Western Isles of Scotland where the strongest gusts have still yet to arrive, Lochmaddy Ferry Terminal, North Uist, 71mph Gravir, Isle of Lewis, 71mph Tobson, Isle of Lewis, 70mph Breasclete, Isle of Lewis, 67mph Enaclete, Isle of Lewis, 67mph South Uist, Met Office Site, 64mph Drimsdale, South Uist, 61mph
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Gusting mostly around 30mph here with 40mph being the highest so far, I'm not expecting the worst until about 10pm to reach my area. So far it's just rained a lot and caused a little bit of flooding.
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Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Zenarcher replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Latest look on the 12z Ensembles from the ECM, GFS, GEM & MOGREPS-Met Office up to the 26th of December. Pressure The ECM, GFS, and GEM all predict that pressure will increase later this week, but MOGREPS isn't as keen on rising the pressure as much, the same thing happened on the 00z run this morning. The biggest shift today is the middle of next week, where the ECM and GEM are now keen on increasing pressure. Todays 12z graph Yesterdays 12z graph Temperature This week will continue to be cold; the weekend is expected to see a rise in temperatures; after that, temperatures look like they will fall again. On the 12z runs, the average temperature across all ensembles between the 24th and 26th was marginally colder when compared to the 00z runs from this morning. Todays 12z graph Yesterdays 12z graph -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Zenarcher replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Latest look on the 00z Ensembles from the ECM, GFS, GEM & MOGREPS-Met Office. With only MOGREPS not as willing to build pressure as high compared to the rest, high pressure is still expected later this week. (Red line shows average between all ensembles) Most of the week will be cold, although there are some indications that in about 6 days, temperatures may start to rise. -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
Zenarcher replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I made these graphs showing the daily midday temps and air pressure for London between 12th and 25th of December, based on the ECM, GFS, GEM Ensembles and MOGREPS-Met Office Ensembles (ICON ensembles too but only for temps). The big red line shows the overall average between them all. Pressure expected to rise towards next weekend. Temps staying cold for the next week at least. -
The temp here reached 25.1°C on Sunday, 25.7°C yesterday matching the highest I've recorded on my weather station that I've had for 3 years and today so far 25.8°C. The Met Office local forecast is going for 26°C over the next 2 hours. I know the Met Office have a weather station here but will need to wait a while before I know if it's our warmest day ever.
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The wind picked up around 2am, and my local weather station a few miles away reported a gust of 63mph. There were heavy showers and thunder in the area, but according to the radar, I just missed it by a few miles. Just after 4am, I had a gust of 70mph. It's still a little windy today, but it's dry and sunny. Lightning Radar from the past 24 hours from lightningmaps.org
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The thunder in my area died down a few hours ago, and the heavy showers eventually turned into heavy rain for a while. It's still windy, but nothing too bad at the moment.
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Some thunder around my area at the moment I heard some about 10 minutes ago. Heavy shower starting just now some sleet and hail in the mix.
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It's gusting to just under 50 mph here, but it doesn't appear to be that bad right now, however the wind is definitely picking up. I'm surprised the warning hasn't extended to the southern half of the Western Isles, given that Tiree has. A gust of 68 mph was reported in South Uist, and 74 mph was recently recorded in South on Barra and the worst has still yet to come for them.
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Last night was windy, with gusts of just under 50 mph. My local Met Office forecast indicates it will only be around 5 mph windier tonight, but I don't believe it. Looking at the GFS and ECM, it appears like I'll see gusts around 65mph. But the direction for me tonight isn't good the wind has a funnel affect coming down the hills from the North West which can bring stronger gusts than forecast. I haven't seen the GFS predict such high wind speeds for me since moving here, so I'm a little worried, even though I'm not in the warning zone.
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Storm Dudley - Weds 16th and Thurs 17th
Zenarcher replied to Summer Sun's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
The heavy showers have remained here this evening, with a few more gusts just under 50 mph, and according to the latest forecast from the 18z GFS, gusts of 40 to 55 mph are expected to last through tonight, more noticeable during the heavy showers. -
Storm Dudley - Weds 16th and Thurs 17th
Zenarcher replied to Summer Sun's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
Over the last two hours, the wind has picked up again, with a gust of 58 mph recorded shortly after 5pm. Showers are becoming more frequent at the moment, with some sleet mixed in with the rain. -
Storm Dudley - Weds 16th and Thurs 17th
Zenarcher replied to Summer Sun's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
A very heavy shower with strong gusts passed through just before 4pm. I don't have a weather station, but the nearest one to me reported 53mph. After the shower passed, the wind died away to the point that you wouldn't believe a storm was passing through currently. -
Storm Dudley - Weds 16th and Thurs 17th
Zenarcher replied to Summer Sun's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
There are some heavy showers moving through here right now, but there is still some nice sunshine in between. The wind has picked up, and many weather stations across Southern Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Northern England are reporting gusts of 50 to 68 mph. The storm will pass directly over Scotland during the next few hours, meaning the highest winds have yet to arrive in some areas. -
Storm Dudley - Weds 16th and Thurs 17th
Zenarcher replied to Summer Sun's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
The Met Office wind gusts tomorrow, It shows mainly shows gusts of 50 to 60 mph, but 60 to 70 mph in parts of Southern Scotland and Northern England. The strongest gusts are expected in the south west of Scotland (Islay, Jura, Campbeltown, and Arran). It should also be highlighted that during rush hour on Wednesday morning over the Scottish central belt, gusts of 50 to 60 mph may be experienced in some places. -
Storm Dudley - Weds 16th and Thurs 17th
Zenarcher replied to Summer Sun's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
The GFS has reduced wind speeds overnight, falling in line with other models such as the ECM, Met Office, and ICON, although it still predicts inland gusts of 50 to 60 mph for Central Scotland and Northern England. Indeed, the GFS forecast has downgraded this morning, but it'll still be very windy on Wednesday, and the Met Office still has the amber warning in place. -
Storm Dudley - Weds 16th and Thurs 17th
Zenarcher replied to Summer Sun's topic in Storms & Severe Weather
I just looked at the ECM gusts for this storm, and it looks like it'll be about 70 to 80 mph around the South West coasts in Scotland. The ECM is predicting for 50 to 60 mph for inland areas, with some areas reaching 65 mph. The GFS is similar, but it predicts stronger inland gusts, with gusts exceeding 75 mph in some areas.