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About Uncle_Barty

  • Birthday 07/01/1964

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  • Gender Male
  • Location sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign

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  1. Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->

      What???! Next week's weather hasn't happened yet....... How anyone could claim that one model has trumped another wrt the weather that isnt even going to happen for 7 days yet is beyond me, sorry.
  2.   Got that one wrong then, didn't i?!
  3.   I suspect not. think it will all form north and west of here. The somewhat disturbed looking mid-level cloud formations seem to have gone and clouds melting away here.   Not going to rule it out altogether, of course, but unless something blows up very quickly to the south, we're in for a quiet and probably dry night here.
  4. There is still plenty of time for this to be all shunted East. I'm not buying it until it's at t+48. Seen it happen so often before, even with good inter-model agreement.   As soon at the DE runs the heatwave headline, the models will back down!
  5. Model Output Discussion - 3rd May Onwards 00z--->

    Tamara,   Is it too simplistic to say low AAM = static global patterns?   Can you suggest any further reading where I can improve my knowledge of the various teleconnections (you speak about in your post), how they knit together etc?
  6. Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.

      Thanks for that analysis, Tamara, even if it makes for somewhat concerning reading for those who want a reasonably decent July - if this is the NH pattern setting up for the business end of summer, then could we see repeated Pacific-originating jet streaks reinforcing the downwind pattern that means any attemps at ridging over the UK gets flattened by the next LP? 1988 anybody?   Incidently, the dry June was broken on this very day in 1988 and that summer never really recovered....
  7. Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.

      I've heard it used plenty of times. Someone at Southampton Weather Centre (can't rememeber if it was Ted Young or Peter Cresswell) would often use it in broadcasts on BBC Radio Solent. Ah, the good old days.....
  8. Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.

    When you talk about "warm air over Western Atlantic/Greenland" do you actually mean high T850s, or do you really mean heights (at 500mb) producing yellows and oranges on the SLP/500mb maps?? I suspect it is the latter as looking at the T850s in those parts, they are sub-5c in the main.
  9. Model Output Discussion 31/05/14 onwards.

      It will only get shifted east in time anyway. Usually does from my experience.
  10. Model Output Discussion 31/03/14 onwards.

      Not so much "Summer is over", daft statement to make on May 29th, but certainly "on hold indefinitely" from the current output.   The sheer amount of northern blocking being modelled has all the hallmarks of a washout summer from recent times about it. BUT I seem to recall that we were having a similar discussion this time last year, and for a time the model output looked pretty pessimistic, with plenty of northern blocking/NW Euro trough. but as we all remember, it did turn around fairly swiftly with an OK June in the end.   Let's hope we are looking at rather different output a week from now.......
  11. Need Help On The Site/forum?

    ok, thanks. Thought it might be but wasn't sure as it appeared to be in the list of radar-only subscribers' links.
  12. Need Help On The Site/forum?

    Hi all, In the Radar Links (I have a radar subscription) I am clicking the link below but unable to access that page as my sub apparently doesnt cover it. Is this an error, or does access require a full Extra sub? http://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=rainfall;sess=1d357d4e6f34f7fc70eb0c4d490e3216