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Jack Wales

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Everything posted by Jack Wales

  1. Jack Wales
    Yes it's thoroughly depressing but with the northern blocking pattern seemingly locked in, coupled with a strong southerly displaced jet stream. I can't see any change until at least the end of April
  2. Jack Wales
    The cold outlook is starting to fall into a similar pattern to previous years with the jet pushing the high slightly eastwards and directly over the UK. The consequence being that the cold will be pushed into central and eastern Europe and down to Greece etc.
  3. Jack Wales
    Although we're in enso neutral territory, there is definitely a La Nina lag to the N hemisphere pattern atm with northern blocking, azores high displaced to the west and NW to SE jet flow into W Europe. As we get towards the end of May, the summer pattern will begin to show it's hand... if so, we better lose this signal soon, unless cool and rain is your thing!
  4. Jack Wales
    Hi, just wandering if there's a summer forecast /discussion thread anywhere on here?
  5. Jack Wales
    I don't know what his qualifications are but in fairness Brian Gaze is very knowledgeable. He's also a bit of a cold ramper so I think it's a testament to his professionalism that he's gone with a milder forecast. I agree with a lot of it except that Feb could turn out to be colder as the qbo should be switching more negative by then which should allow some of the colder background signals to prevail.
  6. Jack Wales
    Hi. Apologies if this is the wrong thread but just wondering if the winter forecast has been issued yet? I can't see anything in the forecasts page.
  7. Jack Wales
    5.3C and 100mm please
  8. Jack Wales
    6.9 please
  9. Jack Wales
    Chelston bermuda now reporting 98mph wind and 963mb pressure.
  10. Jack Wales
    Eyewall now over Bermuda, it appears the eye will track just to the east...
  11. Jack Wales
    Not sure if there is a seperate thread for Nicole, if so please feel free to merge this in. Nicole currently looking fantastic on satellite imagery and will undoubtedly soon be upgraded to cat 3. Just hope for Bermuda that she does not make direct landfall....
  12. Jack Wales
    Do we have a thread for hurricane Nicole...
  13. Jack Wales
    Yes, It looks ominous now and central pressures have dropped to 935mb. Given the current satellite presentation there's scope for some slight strengthening before landfall.
  14. Jack Wales
    Miami is on the south east tip of florida
  15. Jack Wales
    Miami should escape the worst of it but will still experience trop storm conditions with hurricane force gusts. Imo the biggest danger area is from West Palm Beach northwards.
  16. Jack Wales
    Not sure if an ewrc has taken place, I think the eye was just disrupted following some interaction with the Bahamas. It seems to have cleared out now with the colder cloud tops wrapping back around the eye... as we can see from this stunning image of Matthew...
  17. Jack Wales
    Recon just recorded 936mb and 137mph flight and 123mph sfmr winds.
  18. Jack Wales
    I thought hurricane Andrew made landfall as a cat 5 in the late 80"s
  19. Jack Wales
    Nassau live weather data feed has now crashed - which is ominous for that region. Nicolls town on Andros up to 100mph at the surface.
  20. Jack Wales
    Now 937mb and 135mph sfmr. Some cold cloud tops and visual presentation of Matthew improving all the time. To me it's a matter of when and not if it reaches cat 5. Let's hope it stays off-shore.
  21. Jack Wales
    Making landfall on Grand Bahama shortly. Here is the weather station at Andros Town where pressures are now steadily dropping and winds at 80mph https://weather.com/en-GB/weather/today/l/24.70,-77.79
  22. Jack Wales
    Recon just recorded central pressures of 941mb. Surface level winds yet to respond to the pressure drop with max 115mph recorded so far this mission
  23. Jack Wales
    I especially hope the Miami hit doesn't prevail. As a cat 5, it would floor many of the concrete buildings and displace millions. In the meantime Cuba is next in the firing line. Baracoa should take a direct hit, here is the weather station which is worth keeping an eye on (pardon the pun)... https://weather.com/en-GB/weather/today/l/CUXX0021:1:CU
  24. Jack Wales
    Dropsonde data indicates surface level pressure of 949mb and surface winds of 123kts (141.5mph) detected. Land interaction hasn't done much to inhibit Matthew. Cloud tops have warmed slightly but with the eye reforming expect pressures to drop once more. Not good news for the Bahamas.
  25. Jack Wales
    As I feared AderynCoch, especially as Matthew is moving so slowly which prolongs the exposure to the extreme conditions. The wind is still blowing at 110mph there, that's continous 100mph+ wind speed for over three hours! Recon data shows maximum surface winds at 136mph and interestingly their SFMR data at around 990mb is consistent with the wind speeds being observed at Les Cayes. Agree with SB, with low shear and warm SST's there is nothing to prevent restrengthening.
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