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Gibli

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    Jersey

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  1. With the end of the World Cup football and the controversy concerning Qatar as the choice for 2022 , I thought it would be interesting to look at recent temperatures there, should Qatar remain the choice for 2022. I used official figures from Doha Airport for the same period as the recent World Cup (12 June to 16th July). Maximum temperatures: The average max occurring around 3pm local time was 42.6C. On the coolest day it only reached 37.9C, while the hottest peaked at 47.4C. On 10 days the maximum exceeded 44C. Minimum temperatures: The average minimum occurring around 6am local time was 31.9C. On the coolest night the temperature dropped to mere 28.0C, while the highest minimum was 36.2C. On only 5 nights did the temperature dip briefly below 30C. The average temperature for the World Cup period was 37.3C. Exertion in these temperatures is likely to be dangerous for both players and spectators. Presumably it would be a cycle of air conditioned (a/c) room, to a/c vehicle to a/c training ground and back. Ironically on the ‘cooler’ days when a breeze off the sea set in, the dew point was much higher. In my limited experience of the tropics it was high dew points (over about 22C) which really sap the energy and they were in the high 20's for a while. On the other hand, if the same venue was used in mid-winter as has been suggested, it looks much more feasible. Using Doha figures for December 2013 / January 2014, the average maximum was 22.1C (variation 18 to 28C) while the average minimum was 15.9C (variation 13 to 22C in round figures) and for playing football a rather pleasant overall mean temperature of 19.0C. That said, the decision will likely all boil down to how much money changes hands! I have details on an Excel spread sheet - unfortunately the site says I'm 'not permitted to upload this kind of file'.
  2. Lorenzo and Pixel, Many thanks. I knew there must be some better definition images. Gibli
  3. Just wondering if anyone knows of a source of good definition WV satellite images. The EUMETSAT site has excellent coverage but the definition is poor – about five shades of grey as here: http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/IMAGERY/WV062/BW/WESTERNEUROPE/ I’m looking for coverage of the Atlantic (or eastern Atlantic) and western Europe. Either of these two examples would be OK if they covered the area I’m looking for: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/imagemain.php?&basin=europe∏=wv&sat=m7 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-l.jpg I previously used an Italian site, but the WV images are no longer available. Any suggestions much appreciated. Thanks. Gibli
  4. Operational run = high resolution model, no change to initial conditions Control run = as operational model but a lower resolution model (i.e. less horizontal and vertical grid points) Ensemble runs = the lower resolution model (same as control run) but with small changes to initial condtions
  5. An epic fog event is happening this side of the Channel. Jersey Airport has been in fog continuously,(with visibility less than 200 metres) for 58 hours so far and no sgn of a lift yet. Guernsey Airport much the same, with a lift for just an hour yesterday afternoon. Air passengers are not too happy and heading for the ferries,but everyone has the same idea so they are full, which is almost unheard of in the winter. The pleasures of living on an island - even one with good air and sea links. Gibli Jersey,
  6. NN - they are not brands and are not really competing. The names of each model are usually abreviated, so we have : GFS = Global Forecast System (A USA model) GEM = Global Environmental Multiscale (An Canadian model) NOGAPS = Navy's Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (A US Navy model) Google 'weather model GFS' for instance and you'll see the full names for other models. The UK Met Office uses several models and you may see two, the Global (i.e. covers the whole world) and the NAE (North Atlantic and Europe). Think of it in the same way Ford produces different models Focus, Fiesta and Ka for instance, each with different dimensions and different engine capacities. Similiarly, different models use slightly different configurations in the equations they solve and at different resolutions - maybe 60km, 30km or 10km. They may have slightly different starting conditions as well (e.g. those that start to solve equations at 1300 will have less data than those starting at 13:30) so they will come up with slightly different answers (represented as pressure charts for instance) , Specialists at main weather centres can and sometimes do intervene to correct things, but you would not be aware of this. Essentially the data / charts you see on the internet come straight out of the computer - no human intervention. I would say models are not really competing. Some models tend to do 'better' than others in certain weather situations but all have known problems and no model is 'better' than the others all the time. Upper troughs advancing from the Atlantic for instance cause most models some problems - forecasters will know about this and make allowances in the forecasts. The ECMWF model is thought to be slightly 'better' than the others on average (depends partly on how you define better), but it starts solving the equations some hours later than the other models, so the information is not available so soon - swings and roundabouts Hope that helps a bit. Gibli
  7. April 2011 - a remarkable month in Jersey as in many parts of the British Isles. Jersey - St. Helier, the official weather station, recorded a total of just 0.2mm of rain in April 2011 (at ~ 4pm on the 30th). That's the lowest April total of course and equals the all time lowest total in a month with June 1925 and June 1976. Monthly rain records go back to 1864. At Jersey Airport the total was 0.5mm and one private recorder (with a proper 5" copper rain gauge) had no measurable rain. It was also the warmest April (data since 1894) with 10 daily records equalled or broken and five days in a row with a maximum of 23C or more. The mean temperature was 13.8C which is 4.0C above the long term average. Sunshine 282 hours and it was more like summer on quite a few days. I expect we'll pay for it in the end, just hope it's not in the summer proper! Gibli
  8. Try here: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsslpeur.html They are pressure charts of Europe rather than the UK, but should suffice. Gibli
  9. South coast of Jersey. Not the best examples of K-H waves and both were dissipating by the time I had the camera out, but I haven't seen them often and can't ever think I've seen them on two days following. Gibli
  10. More detail here: http://www.meteociel.fr/accueil/sst.php Gibli
  11. [i]< I wonder where I would appear in a typical assessment of "climate change believer" vs "climate sceptic".>[/i] TWS, it’s not a question of being a ‘believer’ or a ‘skeptic’. Opinions without evidence to support them are worthless. A bit like believing there were WMD’s in Iraq some years ago, but the fact is no one has found any (because there were none). There were none but there was a big ‘yes there are’ v ‘no there aren’t’ debate at the time. Climate deniers often have some agenda in the background – e.g. they have financial support from big corporations whose motivation is profit. I do urge you to read some proper peer-reviewed scientific studies, instead of trying to guess from other people’s ‘opinions’ without facts to back them up. If you do, I think you’ll find there is steady trend in the current climate. TomS wrote [i]< we are supposed to believe in 'climate change' on the basis of about 20 years observations>[/i]. If you look carefully you’ll find there are many observations far older than 20 years. I’ve recently been working with very reliable observations made in the 1860’s. And I think you’ll find the smoke (visible and mostly carbon particles) from a few hundred, or even thousand factories, is insignificant compared with over 30 million vehicles in Britain alone, which pump out exhaust gases (mostly invisible and of many kinds) every day of the year. You could do worse than to start here for some solid science: [url="http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf"]http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/a...ar4_syr_spm.pdf[/url] Good luck in your quest for the truth Gibli
  12. This might help. The second link (Power point presentation) is rather technical but you should be able to get something from it. Usually referred to as dry intrusions or dry slots. http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1997MeApp...4..317B http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/WEBOPS/msg_inte...ppt#519,1,Slide 1 Lots of good stuff here if you have the time: http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/WEBOPS/msg_inte...tion/index.html Gibli
  13. My contribution of 5 weather related and 1 non weather. Good luck to all entrants.
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