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About s4lancia

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  • Location Weymouth, Dorset

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  1. What you are looking at now is in all likelihood about as good as it will get in my view, chaos theory will see to that. The impossible task of having to understand the drivers, their current influence on the atmosphere and most impossible of all, their interactions with each other, i.e. what overrides what, under what circumstances and to what degree. The 'to what degree' is the important part as each degree, and part of, will set us off in a different  direction. Difficult enough if we only had 2 drivers on the go but when we have the number we have, forget it, ain't going to happen, ever. Advancements in the future will come in the form of more accurate probability forecasting. 
  2. I'm struggling to understand the dispondancy in here. Putting aside the fact we are now fairly well into the 2nd half of winter official and there is nothing anybody can do about that, the potential heading into Feb is there for all to see, isn't it? The fact that the latest ECM u wind forecast came in at +16 m/s instead of the hoped for reversal at D10 isn't really telling the whole story. The reversal of winds is forecast to make it down to 5mb at 60N + right across from about 72 N to 90N @ 10mb. That tells me it would only take either a relatively small adjustment to change that forecast chart into one that shows an official SSW or that one MAY be just around the corner. But... even if it does only end up being a 'minor warming' I am convinced that if these 10mb temp and epv charts come to fruition (and that looks increasingly likely)... . ... High Level Blocking will be in abundance come mid month and it would then be a case of hoping it sets up in our favour.
  3. The epv forecast at day10 is quite something. If it could verify and be followed by a bit more of the same, preferably slightly more polewards heading, the FI chart outputs could suddenly start becoming full of HLB promise I would imagine
  4. I think you may need to read my post again. Putting aside the small fact that the charts in question are yet to not verify (or verify)... 1) In this particular instance, YES, the ECM will likely be proved incorrect with its over amplified output of the past couple of days. 2) And completely unconnected with #1, the GFS remains predominately useless...
  5. Sorry, whilst your statement that the ECM has moved towards the GFS holds some truth, the only thing leading people up garden paths is the rest of your text. No, the GFS has been woeful at the best of times this winter, specifically during the onset of the early Jan cold spell. The ECM almost certainly will be proved to have over amplified things from its promising output of the past day or two but that should be no reason to give any sort of kudos to the GFS. 
  6. I would say the MJO may possibly have played a bit part? Even though the amplitude was no great shakes, any atmospheric coupling present (I may be wrong but I thought this is more likely mid-tail end of winter in a Nino) could have been the catalyst for the Mid Atlantic ridge with the MJO coming out of the Pacific and into phase 8.  My hunch would be though that it must have been aided by the very strong upper-strat wave2 spike that occurred at the end of Jan. This following on from a good period of persistent wave1 activity that would have ground down the previously raging vortex. Maybe it was a case that the timing was perfect with MJO as well?  MJO aside, this seems to tie in quite nicely to where we are now with renewed and strong wave1 already underway and signs afoot that a wave2 attack may be on the cards as we head into early Feb. 
  7. The one I have been watching is 1983. Some striking similarities. It shared a very similar ENSO and QBO base state to 15/16 and we experienced increasingly strong zonal winds with wave activity through January 83 putting severe pressure on the vortex (aka Jan 16) before we started to see the consequences not long after in early Feb...  It may seem a mile off from most FI charts of present but personally I think it won't be long before charts like this start showing up and eventually verifying. 
  8. This could be one to watch to see if it gathers pace. A wave2 squeeze on the vortex appearing at D10.
  9. Agreed Nick. As a winter chart, the ECM around D6 is 'meh' at best!! But in relative terms it holds more interest, certainly when weighed up against the woefully flat GFS. Then... there is viewing the chart with the optimistic viewpoint that, with a few Minor adjustments upstream, it could upgrade quite nicely to allow a decent Mid Atlantic ridge to form and to usher in a period of cooler PM air. I'm not overly convinced that the background signals are particularly in our favour for this outcome at that juncture (a bit too soon IMO) but it remains a viable outcome still. So, it will be one to watch this week to see if it gathers any decent support.
  10. I'd agree with that. The U wind forecast looks very interesting at D10. Still a little way off an 'official' SSW but I wouldn't be surprised to see an ECM forecast pop up in the next few days that depicts one.
  11. Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

    Looks like the vortex is in for a rough ride. Warming up nicely at the top of the Strat on tonight's GFS run. Will be good to see this become a trend and work its way down (down in terms of strat level and down towards day 1)!
  12. Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

    Posted 6 days ago from GP (can't forum quote as now an archive thread) "Unless of course if the trough slides out through the Atlantic south-east being the catalyst for our proper -NAO flip......could well be our torpedo surfacing before it strikes its target." I wonder if the UKMO, and now to a lesser degree most other models, is playing this out? Certainly got a lot of similarities with jan 2013 ( or was it 2012?). The one with the meandering mid-high lat blocking that brought about decent snowfall for many via slider systems.
  13. Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

    Sorry, you've lost me, well done for what again? Have you travelled back from the future?
  14. Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

    Quite agree Mucka. It really doesn't take much of a shift of emphasis to end up with a chart like this. We are a hair bredth's away from some epic charts in the mid term. Got a feeling one of the big 3 is going to pull 1 out of the bag in the next couple of days. Whether it verifies of course, another thing...
  15. Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

    Some of the chart ouputs are hilarious, especially the GFS. I have never seen such an incoherent mess. Mesoscale systems popping up here there and everywhere and ambling off in various directions, others lingering like a bad smell. The FAX charts are probably going to be best guidance but even these are going to be far from infallible with the start data issues being reported at the moment. The ECM catches my attention with the low approach from the SW next Thursday. If that theme continues, it will get very interesting as in amongst the variations on exactly how that would play out is a massive snow event for anywhere in the UK.