acbrixton

14.6c for my guess please. Regards ACB

11.5 for my guess please. regards ACB

8.5c for me please. regards ACB

5.8 for me please. regards ACB

Luke taking your points in turn: 1. I do not know where you live but it is a fact that for almost the entire British Isles January and February have the same long term averages (the exceptions being areas with a pronounced maritime influence such as Shetland, the Isles of Scilly and the far west of Ireland which are slightly colder in February probably because sea temperatures are close to being at their coldest in February). 2. There is no long term statistical correlation supporting the idea that cold Januarys lead to cold Februarys. Taking the years 1960 to 2009 inclusive and applying the 1971-2000 averages the CET record shows: 12 years with cold Januarys and cold Februarys [by 'cold' I mean any value below 4.2c thus a number of the months described here as 'cold' would not in reality be regarded as cold as they would be marginally below average]; 13 years with cold Januarys and mild Februarys; 8 years with mild Januarys and cold Februarys; and 17 years with both mild Januarys and Februarys. In other words a cold January is about as likley to be followed by a mild as opposed to a cold February. 3. As regards snowfall the UKMO mapped averages for 1971-2000 indicate that there may be a slightly greater incidence of snowfall for February at low altitude but slightly less at higher altitude (possible because of of lower precipitation in February) but the differences are not significant. 4. I am not aware of any scientific basis for the assertion that a cold January is more likely than not to be followed by a cold February (certainly there is no statistical basis). Whilst it may be true that colder than average seas and a snow covered continent at the end of January would modify winds from an easterly direction it is worth bearing in mind that such modification would not apply to westerlies and that in any event SST anomalies and continental snow cover can and often are reversed in less than a month. regards ACB

3.7 for my late entry please. regards ACB

10.4 for my guess please. regards ACB

My guess is 6.0, please. regards ACB

7.8 for my late guess please. regards ACB

Stu, yes apologies you are right: I miscalculated... regards ACB

Adam that is a type of 'false symmetry': first most of those members who predict mild weather are not 'ramping' (i.e. indulging in strained and fanciful interpretations of the charts) but are simply realistic, secondly, and therefore, the number of mild rampers is too small to justify an alert system. Shuggs, thanks for the guide. I cannot recall a time on NW when a 'red alert' would have ever been required; perhaps a repetition of 1974/5, 1988/9 or 1998/9? regards ACB

On the basis of the GFS 12z (and assuming that after today Hadley is on, say, 11.4 and ignoring any final adjustments) a rather warm month looks quite likely: perhaps 12.2-12.5? regards ACB

Jethro thanks for the clarification. regards ACB

Jethro, thanks for the link. A few thoughts: 1. The complete dismissal of alternative hypotheses and absolute confidence in TSI theory does not indicate an open or enquiring mind; 2. The certainty of the forecasts for global temperatures over the next 30 years or so is astonishing: we will know soon enough if there is anything to their hypothesis; 3. To use one small piece of data on arctic ice minimas comparing 2007 to 2008 as evidence of global cooling/stabilisation is dubious science; 4. Even if temperature trends on Mars, Jupiter and Pluto could be properly used as supporting evidence (which I very much doubt) 6 years of observations would be scarcely enough to establish such supporting evidence; 5. If, as the authors state, ACW/Co2 theory is utterly irrelevant then why on earth do they suggest that Kyoto be "put off for at least 150 years"? If AGW theory is wholly irrelevent then it must follow that Kyoto is pointless now and in the future? 6. The assertion that the Renaissance was possible because of the MWP is grotesquely simplistic determinism. It is apparent that the Maunder Minimum did little to stop European scientific advances e.g. Pascal, Newton, Leeuwenhoek, Darby, Leibnitz etc.(to say nothing of philosophical and artistic developments); 7. To assert that the 'existence' of Scottish vineyards in the 10th-13th centuries shows that the MWP was warmer than now is absurd: 7.1 Whilst Selley in 'Winelands of Britain' claims that there was one Scottish vineyard in the 12c this seems highly unlikely as the survey of English vineyards in the 11thc 'Domesday Book' records no vineyards north of a line from Ely to Gloucstershire and Lamb mentions only 2 (later) vineyards to the north of that line: Lincoln and Leeds; 7.2 In any event viticulture cannot be used as a simple proxy for average annual temperatures: average temperatures during the growing season, seasonal sunshine/rainfall patterns, the risk of late frosts are relevant; 7.3 There is ample evidence that both the production and use of wine was wholly different in medieval and earlier times: Pliny the elder records the use of both honey and boiling grape juice to sweeten and fortify wine and medieval records apparently show that this continued in later centuries along with the addition of honey and spices when serving wine. The implications of this are that it would have been possible to produce wine (as then understood) in cooler and wetter conditions than would be possible for what we now understand by 'wine'; 7.4 As Jethro points out the decline of the medieval wine industry to be considered without , for example, reference to changing trade patterns (i.e. the importation of superior wines from Acquitaine under the Plantagenet dynasty) and the dissolution of the monasteries in 1536; 7.5 Selley notes in any event that there was a brief renaissance in English wine production in the 17th and 18th centuries (i.e. at the time of the Maunder Minimum). regards ACB

I suspect he means since February 1991 (given his location). regards ACB