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Lakigigar

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    Thunderstorms and winter weather

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  1. Lakigigar
    And this seems like the peak, feels like it is even more intense than half an hour ago. The ICON/ARPEGE/WRF models all suggest peak between now and 2PM (brussels time)
  2. Lakigigar
    The wind gust seem to be picking up even further in west flanders, but we should be within/close to the peak
  3. Lakigigar
    How did the human race survive up to now without basic healthcare?
  4. Lakigigar
    This is a dangerous, severe and powerful storm, the fact that most of England isn't affected by it (or less so) doesn't change that fact, just look at Brittany. And the warnings for Cornwall and Southeast England are more than justified.
  5. Lakigigar
    Already quite windy in Belgium too, though the worst for here is expected tomorrow late morning/early afternoon. I have a feeling though that this is going to be stronger than anticipated (given it's already quite windy and uncomfortably so, while we're still hours and hours away from the peak), and given the measured gusts in brittany that doesn't look good.
  6. Lakigigar
    Lowest air pressure: 25 February 1989, Jersey 953.8 hPa (Jersey) Lowest air pressure: 25 February 1989, Guernsey 952.5 hPa. (Guernsey) Lowest air pressure: 25 February 1989, Cap de La Hague, Cherbourg 951.8 hPa. (France) Lowest air pressure: 25 February 1989, Blankenberge 954 hPa (Belgium) Lowest air pressure: 25 December 1821 Boulogne sur mer 947.1 hPa. (France, not official) I got those records for the channel islands, France and Belgium. Most are indeed of that day. The UKMO chart is definitely around those levels for the second one (saturday storm)
  7. Lakigigar
    These are the records for all of the UK, but this is more to the south than those. For all-time records: Lowest: 22 November 1865, Dolgellau, North Wales 944.8 hPa. Lowest: 8 December 1886, Stonyhurst in Lancashire, where the barometer fell to 940.4 hPa. It's also possible that the 19th century records aren't in the database. Great Storm of 1987 got down to 953 hPa in the North Sea. And the 2000 storm named cyclone Oratia reached 941 hPa according to peer review data but that one was more to the northeast with the record set on sea (and not officially recorded, but reconstructed).
  8. Lakigigar
    hopefully this will be a very long solar minimum.
  9. Lakigigar
    I also believe we will have three much colder than normal winters in a row now.
  10. Lakigigar
  11. Lakigigar
  12. Lakigigar
    In Belgium average year december 1,0C: 18,93% top 20 spotless years, december 1,0C: 40% average year january 0,5C: 21,30% top 20 spotless years, january 0,5C: 55% average year february 1,0C: 21,89% top 20 spotless years, february 1,0C: 30% But... We must not forget that overall solar activity was lower during the 2nd half of the 19th century than during most of the 20th century, and that the Earth did warm substantially, so that the percentages of both an average year and of a top 20 spotless year might be much, much lower, and that the difference between a top 20 spotless year chance of low CET and an average year chance of low CET might be smaller than some might guess. The effect of contemporary climate change is much higher than the effect of a top 20 spotless year on our climate, and more parameters come into place when you want to have an ideal winter setting... An QBOe seem to greatly improve winter chances, when combined with low solar activity.
  13. Lakigigar
    what is normal chance of getting a december of 3.6C or colder in UK?
  14. Lakigigar
    What do those 20 spotless days change about the upcoming winter???
  15. Lakigigar
    Still i don't get it. What's the difference between 180 spotless days and 200 spotless days? And doesn't amount of sunspots also matter. What's that sunspot that stayed there during half of august going to change? I know there is a correlation, but it's predictable when a sun cycle will end and when not... so i could predict a long time beforehand that this year, 2019 and 2020 will have low solar activity, and that the winters of '18-'19, '19-20, '20-'21 and possibly '21-'22 have potential. I think because of eQBO the winters of '18-'19 and '20-'21 have most potential to be cold.
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