Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Ruben Amsterdam

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    132

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location
    Ås, Norway
  • Interests
    Alpine/arctic ecologist interested in weather and climate

Recent Profile Visitors

4,509 profile views

Ruben Amsterdam's Achievements

Contributor

Contributor (5/14)

  • Conversation Starter
  • First Post
  • Collaborator
  • Posting Machine
  • Reacting Well

Recent Badges

287

Reputation

  1. Ruben Amsterdam
    This is the central theme of this entire thread. I think if you read back a couple of pages, you will find your question answered more than once. - The trop. response between SSWs differs between events. No guarantees given. - The stratospheric vortex will likely be out of business for a while - The standard time until the first trop. response is 10-14 days, but can be less, more, or the response may never come - EC shows a modest signal for downwelling at +240, but nothing convincing yet
  2. Ruben Amsterdam
    It's quite fascinating how the vortex shatters and basically ceases to exist at 10 hPa (GFS 12z FI). This translates to a pattern with relatively high geop. in the Canada/Greenland sector in the lower strat. Yet there is nothing (yet) to be seen in troposphere, not even a cute tiny baby polar high.
  3. Ruben Amsterdam
    So there you have it, EC more or less adopts the GFS-scenario
  4. Ruben Amsterdam
    Polar Stratospheric Clouds observed in the northern part of the Netherlands! Or? Dutch/Belgian weather forum
  5. Ruben Amsterdam
    That zonal wind at 1hpa used to be -40 in the previous runs though. But beggars can't be choosers
  6. Ruben Amsterdam
    But is GFS truly that different? Showing a modest split at 10hpa. The bigger differences are at the top of the strat I think.
  7. Ruben Amsterdam
    So, where do we find the current NAM100-300?
  8. Ruben Amsterdam
    That's bad news bears. But please note that the paper mentions the NAM at 100-300 hPa, not 1000.
  9. Ruben Amsterdam
    Cheers on your first post! For the record: the GEFS still shows a technical SSW but keeps pushing it back. Meanwhile, the hump in the short term is getting higher and higher (conform the operational runs).
  10. Ruben Amsterdam
    Thanks for the great feedback. I will try to MacGyver my way out using a 5W solar panel! :)
  11. Ruben Amsterdam
    So you take power from your Davis station? I'm sorry I do not quite understand. I'm building a diy version of a Stevenson screen and maybe I will add a fan (considering to use the Netatmo). What would be the best way to power the fan without having to run power cables into the yard?
  12. Ruben Amsterdam
    The problem is the small low of the Norwegian coast shown here at +96. This prevents fusion between the two area's of high pressure.
  13. Ruben Amsterdam
    Right I read you Most model ensembles are now hinting with blocks, just a lot of variation in position and timing. It's an interesting idea to think to what extend the models perform with stratospheric configurations that are several sigma's away from normal conditions. To what extend are models calibrated to handle (or to what extend do we understand strat-trop coupling?) vortex remnants moving from east to west like in the coming 72 hours?
  14. Ruben Amsterdam
    I do not quite see what you mean here. Surely, EC sees the reversal coming as it is output from the exact same model we look at in Berlin's Strat. plots vs. tropospheric output on meteociel. Perhaps, our current understanding of strat-trop dynamics limits our ability to accurately model responses to SSW events, but that's something different. And there is a possibility that the response is not as we all expect it (i.e. quick response, AO-), right? Not what we all hope for, but a possibility none the less.
  15. Ruben Amsterdam
    Would I be correct in stating this would also be a Canadian Warming? I.e. anomalies in early winter in the Canadian sector are Canadian Warmings, but only some of these also classify as a full-SSW?
×
×
  • Create New...