Chris Sargent

Got to love the DCVZ!

Relative lack of instability petty much everywhere until Saturday. Unstable air should make it to northern plains but a lack of shear will probably kill the chance of supercells. The biggest threat looks to be way east over the weekend; and by way I mean OH or PA!! SPC do have a marginal area for D2 & 3 over CO the main threats being hail and wind.

Looking better.... BUT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD BACK NWD ACROSS THE PLAINS BY D7-D8 AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE E AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSSIBLY MATERIALIZES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THEREAFTER...SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY BEYOND THE D8 TIME FRAME.

Latest from SPC MODELS HINT THAT A STORM SYSTEM MAY BEGIN MOVING INTO THE PLAINS IN ROUGHLY THE DAY 7 TO 8 TIME FRAME...WHICH COULD INCLUDE AN INCREASE IN SEVERE RISK. could make the change over on Friday interesting. Here's hoping!

....not since the school disco!

If you get the time check out the Crazy Horse memorial too, it's a short drive from Mt Rushmore and worth a visit.

Oh I don't like reading thing like this.... BEYOND THE DAY 6 (Thur 2nd June) TIMEFRAME...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE IN THE WRN U.S. AND LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN A LESS-FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

Sorry, can't help myself but looks like over the next 2 weeks the southern jet stream is sliding north a bit allowing a ridge to build across the southern and central plains. This will allow higher than average temps to build but at the same time cooler air in the west and north east. so expecting to be chasing more in Iowa than previous years with maybe a trip all the way over to the great lakes. Not seeing the severe outbreaks of the last couple of weeks to continue, but much more isolated severe events.

Shame you have to stay south. MD with watch likely for central - north OK and Kansas.

SPC are giving a nod for this weekend and into next week. D4 (Sunday) and D5 (Monday) but have 15% stat markings for (D4) a large swathe cutting down from South Dakota through Kansas, Oklahoma and into northern Texas. D5 is a smaller (relatively!) patch in central/northern Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas.

It's structure and lightning for me. After all that's why it's called "Storm" Chasing not tornado chasing. That said the odd tornado or two is nice!!

Going with SPC and (virtually) parked up in Woodward, OK - only 124m east of Guymon.

Difficult one today. Only seeing slight risk not enhanced for N/NE TX & SE OK. D2 & 3 not looking too great either although I'm sure Paul will sniff something out! D3 is probably doable in Kansas butthe MRGL risk is far NE. D4 - 8 too far out as always.

SPC have an enhanced risk for Sunday 8th May for Central/north OK and central KS. Not sure quite where T1 overnighted but think were aiming for the SLGT risk in NE CO/NW KS should should be well placed for tomorrow without too much driving.

Thanks Paul, realise that from previous tours but as it was in test mode just thought I'd ask the question.