Weather Boy

Summer8906 Good to read a bit of balance. Since when did the GFS determine the synoptic pattern? It's a chocolate teapot beyond c. T192!

(Small) point of order. You omitted to call it "the mighty" NAVGEM. Do better.

Is the 13 June hoodoo going to be broken today? (Only summer date where the UK has never seen 30°C recorded). Looking close, but on balance, no?

I know that it's the model thread, but I don't really see the merit in discussing the likely surface conditions relating to a chart that has close to 0% chance of verifying, given the range of the chart. No offence intended to all those doing so!

Agreed, if it didn't the MetO would dismiss it. They haven't (as of yesterday, anyway). However, in the video that you refer to, they gave the GFS prospects as 15%. This seems about right as of yesterday. Maybe less now that it has moved somewhat towards the other models (IMO anyway).

If you wanted a certain type of weather (eg warm and sunny) to come about would you rather have GEM on your side and ECM against or vice versa, in order for it to come true? I think most model watchers, speaking generally, would prefer the latter.

My grandma lived in Leigh on sea and her porch collapsed (corrugated plastic roof) under the weight of snow in January 1987.

Ha ha, -16°C over SE & EA! Bank! Very amusing!

That's what the models are currently saying. It doesn't mean it will. Still time for a backtrack.

I'm not sure how it's possible for it to be "always correct" when it varies so much from run to run. I'm not suggesting it's alone, but saying it must be wrong sometimes.

Obviously that chart won't verify precisely, and furthermore it's a snapshot, but if it did, I'd say you'd have a cold continental flow for all NE of a line from the Solent to South Wales.

Do you mean 'mean' as in average, or 'mean' as in evil? Or...both?

Good chart, but sorry MWB, are those accumulated totals between now and 14/7? Not that low away from South coast, really...

Quite. Today looked like an absolute stinker a week ago. Furthermore - I know this is is model output discussion but- it's interesting to note that apparently neither Meto or BBC are backing the apocalyptic scenario being painted by some on this site. The models are not at one. Professional forecasts suggest that those showing an extremely wet scenario do not represent the form horse. Nobody knows but I suggest that ark building is not yet required.

Sadly, you mean accurate!