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Gender
Male
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Location
(Previously Mitcham) North End, Portsmouth
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Interests
Millwall football Club. Fishing. Family
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Weather Preferences
Warm sunny days with the odd cloud.
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fat chad's Achievements
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Nick F I hardly ever post on here. In that vein, I hope the more experienced don't shoot me down.. My lack of posting is not due to my lack of enthusiasm, but due to lack of time to really research to the level of competence that many have on here, due to family and work commitments. Anyhow. While I am surprised to read this post, I do understand the frustration. Especially as the there has been no raging vortex this year. It's possibly been the best chance to get a good result from the pack of cards we've been dealt, since 2009/10. I may be wrong, but hey ho. Personally, I think all opinions and theories may all have a place. We've gone from a near certain forthcoming ice age in the late 60's/early 70's to runaway global warming in 2020's. Maybe the point I'm going the long way about in saying, is that there are many drivers and reasons for the weather we have on our island. I've learnt that they are less clear cut than on the continent which has a land mass without water heating up the air around it. Maybe give those who take a punt and have the guts to share their thoughts, a big huge break, as some of the toys thrown out the pram after the mid January let down, was (To politely put) pathetic!! Going in the local threads,some of the personal challenges towards comments and forecasting on here, to read, were really annoying. Do we want members to get involved and put their new knowledge to the test? Or is this a W@#lly waving contest where we all try and beat eachother down? I love visiting this forum and have done so on very regular basis since becoming a member. I enjoy it here, all seasons. There does need some sock pulling up, and from all members. Just my opinion. One from someone who hasn't got the knowledge to post his forecast, but someone who respects anyone who cares, or dares to do so. Thank you for such a wonderful place to share my interest.
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Model output discussion - here comes the beast!
fat chad replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Depending on location remember my dear boy. -
@Catacol..... A very sobering read. Thank you for your informative time and effort. I would personally be happy with a break from all the wind and rain. But the weather is, what the weather is. If we cannot get something wintery, then I would rather a dry high. Usable weather for those working outdoors. But such is life..
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Would that not allow the low to sink south and then bring on an easterly flow?
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Hello Steve. Thanks for posting. Just a quick question from me. What are the 850s temps for that timeframe please? I only ask as the best falls in recent history barring 2010, for my area (Portsmouth) have come from a windflow coming off of a frigid continent. And would the continent have cooled enough in time in your opinion?
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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
fat chad replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There is some really learned folk in here... You just have to filter though the hype.... If you hang around often enough, you will see who they are. -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
fat chad replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It's what makes this forum so great. If you can detach yourself from the dramatics and toy trowing when it usually doesn't go to plan, then you can enjoy an educated thread... -
Hello Luke. My (very) limited knowledge on sudden stratospheric warmings (ssw), is that it turns our mean westerly wind direction to a (negative) easterly wind direction. It makes cold weather more likely, but in no way is it a guarantee for cold over the British Isle's. Let alone a signal for snow. My understanding is that most of our notable wintery spells in the past have happened a couple of weeks after the warming commences. Something to maybe watch, but not to get excited about..... Yet.
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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go
fat chad replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Some good and clear posts this morning. To all those who have contributed to this forum with good explanation's of what they mean, Thank you. -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
fat chad replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Patience fella.... It's the end of November... -
Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16
fat chad replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Hello Malcolm and welcome to the forum. My basic grasp of how ex hurricanes effect the weather in the Atlantic is that they pump up warm air pole wards (WAA). It's best for cold lovers, the WAA going up towards Greenland. Other members who are far far more knowledgeable than myself and they will correct me if I am wrong, but my understanding is that ex hurricanes and tropical storms hitch a ride on the jet stream and the storm direction and eventual landfall depends on where the jet stream is. Not actually effecting the jet stream itself. Well that's my take on thing's... Be nice to me gang if I am wrong... -
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016
fat chad replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Could this calm August/ September weather be anything to do with the very low sunspot count?? I know some say it has fog all to do with things, but considering it controls all of our climate, could it affect the way that the jet stream kicks in our direction??? Don't have a go.... Genuine question.. Thanks. -
Model output discussion - 20th Feb onwards
fat chad replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I for one am now hoping for nice warm and pleasant sunny days from now until autumn... None the less, the effort and time you have recently put into your posts truly make my visits to this great forum well worth the time. Great post fella..