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knocker

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Everything posted by knocker

  1. A good example of evaporative cooling over Devon yesterday
  2. I think serious consideration should be given to the possible temporary closure of the mod. thread as a humane gesture to end the suffering.
  3. Addicks Fan 1981 Signals do not lead the models and to say this rather makes a mockery of 70 odd years of model development. The sun drives the models via Atmospheric/ Oceanic interactions using mathematical and physical equations and the teleconnections are part of this complex evolution. And of course forecasting. This is of course a very short and simplistic explanation.
  4. I notice that over in the mod. thread a relative newcomer to the thread has made the rhetorical comment , "Seriously how can any model promoting cold weather now be a good thing". There is of course no intelligent answer to this.
  5. Met4Cast I wasn't aware that I was suggesting that knowledge in itself is a bad thing. What I was suggesting is that posting comments on teleconnections, Stratosphere/Troposphere interactions and synoptic meteorology all in the model discussion thread, is in my humble opinion operation overload and asking a lot from many punters, including myself.. And there really is no need for the separate threads in that case. I will leave it there as I realise my opinion is not welcome in here
  6. Why should this thread become even more filled with teleconnections and Stratosphere talk? There are separates threads for those subjects. It is almost as if synoptic meteorology, and all the interesting complexities of that, is a no go area. Without this being addressed adequately I am not sure how punters relatively new to interpretating models can possible get to grips with it.
  7. I am very saddened to note the the air of despair and desperation that has crept into the Mod thread over the last few days.
  8. Climate Change would appear to be hastening the redundancy of the chasing cold thread............it just doesn't bear thinking about
  9. Flub136 I do not think this a true representation of the warming An important character of sudden warming is its downward propagation from 45 km into the lower stratosphere. This feature is not zonal in character, but has nonzonal structure, with a planetary wave tilting westward with height. In the middle latitudes, warming in the stratosphere (40 km) is followed by cooling in the mesosphere (65 km). Simultaneously, the opposite occurs in low latitudes, with stratospheric cooling and mesospheric warming, but the magnitude of the changes in the lower latitudes is one order less compared to that noted in higher latitudes
  10. Neilsouth There is a problem with pinning down the detail at this range as it the start of pattern change. All one can say at the moment is it is likely to be cool and breezy (depending on where the dig is) and with a wave on the front crossing the south late on the 24th according to the gfs. Not very helpful I'm afraid
  11. Weatherman_93 That's a bit like expecting a vegetarian to salivate over a fillet steak
  12. Not that the my opinion is worth diddly squat in here but the development of yet another Nor'easter and it's subsequent track is having ramifications downstream regarding HP amplification.
  13. I've just noticed that there is new 'Post Mortem' thread. and I came quite faint for a moment assuming it was the last rites of the mod thread
  14. I have to say there is an awful whiff of desperation in the air.............time to break out the Prozac
  15. Good to see that the mid Feb. amplification eases appreciably by the beginning of March.
  16. johncam Well I have no idea on the altitude variations but suffice it to say the snow is along the leading edge of the front so obviously dependant on the position/orientation of it
  17. Not for the first time, and I'm sure it wont be the last, but I sometime wonder what the punters in here want
  18. RJBingham Totally irrelevant it it's not following the party line.
  19. I see the UKMO has gone from favourite son to tosspot in 24 hours.
  20. Interesting to note that we are only on page 30 in the mod thread after a week. During periods of mass hysteria this landmark would be reached whilst making a cup of coffee. I'm taking this, perhaps wrongly, that this is a signal that winter is over. Oh my..................................
  21. @SLEETY I can't believe winters over...........I'm totally gutted
  22. It is good to see the quality of the posts in the chasing cold thread is rising exponentially as noted with a recent offering of "corker inbound"
  23. The latest longer range output is pretty much in agreement with the expected movement of the tpv lobe to NE Europe. Lovely jubbly 500 hPa height and 2m temp Weekly mean anomalies and little precipitation
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