CreweCold

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About CreweCold

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  • Location Crewe, Cheshire

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  1. Jeez it's getting hard to avoid anyone with a cold, flu, sickness etc etc. It's rife atm. Why can't everyone just be as OCD as me and maybe we could prevent some of these nasties?!

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    2. Costa Del Fal

      Costa Del Fal

      You heard it here first folks, cc said 'roll on summer'. have print screened for future evidence. Lol

    3. Daniel*

      Daniel*

      Living up north is bad for you 

    4. Spikecollie

      Spikecollie

      I close toilet exit doors with paper I've dried my hands on and put it in a bin outside. There are posters in French loos advising you to to do this! Suddenly I don't feel OCD doing this anymore. Noro, flu, any other form of snots or crappy viruses are best avoided. Noro, when you are alone and thinking you might just die is not fun....

  2. Perhaps if you read the thread as more of a narrative, one which evolves temporally, you'd understand a bit more. Perhaps re-read what you've written before you post too- I have a good grasp of English but even Sherlock would struggle to decode what you've written there.
  3. Trop vortex done for.... It'll have another go at a Greeny high/mid Atlantic ridge from here... Edit: GFS FI wants to faff around with vortex spin-offs which preclude further ridging attempts Only delaying the inevitable though!
  4. Some of my deepest snowfalls have occurred in February....one overnight Feb 2010 period dumped a load of snow here. However, you're right, it won't stick on low ground for very long at all...perhaps even more pronounced this year due to anomalous warmth during December. That Feb 2010 snowfall was gone by dinner time.
  5. That might be a case of 'tough titties' this year. It has been well advertised for months that this would be a back loaded winter and I had my suspicions that winter would linger into spring. Probably pertinent to note that diurnally driven convection may feature more prominently the further into Feb we go so, in essence, we may experience some very nice cloudscapes should any polar airmass interact with greater surface heating.  Loverrrly jubberly!
  6. The Metoffice will go on an ensemble consensus though. They will not talk about a frigidly cold spell until there is very good ensemble support for such. At this range that is unlikely. Give it a few more days....
  7. Yes but remember some energy is required around the area (more specifically Canadian sector rather than Greenland) as this prevents a developing west based -NAO with HP 'over shooting' its target. It also supplies enough energy to support such a blocking feature in the form of energy heading SE as opposed to E or NE through the block. This shows with the undoing of the 2010 cold spell Too much of a good thing comes to mind!
  8. Indeed and interestingly fits the stratospheric state very well. Displacement of the stratospheric vortex looks to be strongly allied to trop vortex displacement Greenland-Icelandic heights could be a prominent feature of February's weather and not a million miles away from the GLOSEA seasonal rock steady projections of the last 5 months.
  9. Brilliant post Tamara- seems like we have similar thoughts....albeit with your superior grasp on teleconnections. The upcoming mobile spell is likely to be last gasp and transient IMO, with hints of such appearing towards day 10.
  10. Day 10 ECM should show promise....you can see between days 8&9 the vortex losing intensity fairly rapidly and once again low heights begin to drain from Greenland EDIT: There you go, day 10 sees most of the vortex & associated deep low heights transfer eastwards- never a bad thing to have the main vortex lobe situated to our NE. Discrete area of heights appearing just S of Greenland
  11. Lovely chart...watch that swathe of HP get hoovered up to the NW as the vortex transfers E... EDIT: vortex doesn't break favourably for us and we end up with a segment remaining over Greenland. AO does look to go negative though The potential is there days 9&10 if we can get a clean displacement of the vortex. One to monitor!
  12. Let's take a look at an extreme solution to the pattern I've outlined above. Perturbation 15. Vortex on the move (on a more N'ly latitude than we may see) with low heights transferring E. Jet has tightened up well to our N Moving on you can see the retrogressive nature of the high in tandem with the eastward propagation of the Greenland vortex lobe Eventually western vortex segment is severed The transported Greenland vortex then drops S to our E and becomes our cold reservoir as I mentioned in the post above There's your cold Feb from an initially poor prognosis.   On balance, it won't be as smooth as this but I also don't think as much of a meal will be made out of the process as is currently shown amongst the ops and ensembles. Once the modelling finds the correct solution (i.e one which isn't flat zonal or super +NAO) you'll see the op runs start running with the idea of pressure rises to the NW.
  13. Correct and reaffirms the assumption that the PV will eventually displace from the Canadian/Greenland sector over to our NE. What is being modelled is pretty much typical of what you'll see when the NWP transport the vortex across to the Scandinavian side....i.e increased gradient in the N Atlantic and a tightening of the jet stream and general zonal flow. Another response is to sharpen up the +NAO signal with increased heights to our S and lowered heights to our N. This is good (all part of the process)- and placed into context we will eventually see that this PV lobe becomes severed from the main vortex with a tanking AO and the severed vortex lobe eventually sinking to our east and providing the fuel tank for our next cold shot (as heights increase to our NW). This is the theory anyway. Remember what I said about heights draining away slowly from the Greenland locale the other day? All we can do is sit back and wait...I have a feeling patience is wearing a little thin with some people. I'd place a large sum of money on February coming in below average CET wise.....maybe around the 3C mark. EDIT: just seen Ali's post above- yes something resembling that is what I'm talking about.
  14. Crocked back update: Stayed in bed until 7.30pm- can stand up slightly straighter and pain an 8/10 rather than the 10 of last night. Hopefully better for work on Fri!

  15. I duno, we still end up with a split vortex...it's just with the main vortex lobe still going strong over Greenland the Euro heights have nowhere to go really. This can, however, change in subsequent runs.