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Gender
Male
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Location
Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
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Interests
The weather! Sea fishing, football-Tottenham and Dartford FC, tennis, cooking, travelling
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Weather Preferences
Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
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Kentspur's Achievements
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Kentspur replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
jamesthemonkeh How would the Lake district fare in this set up still chilly? Im off there and also a day trip to the West Coast of Scotland im guessing better than here in the SE closer to the high? I always hear the NW is best in May and first half of June -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Kentspur replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Mike Poole damianslaw EC46 showing Greenland and Iceland Blocking and introduces colder temps with a more North of East flow after this milder period by late March typically didn't 2008 do this also after the very mild February? -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Kentspur replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
winterof79 Thats a funny coincidence as im off to the West Midlands late on Friday night to my friends would be lovely to wake up to a white blanket! Hoping to see some sites up that way Warwick Castle looks cool. Ive heard mixed reviews of Cadburys world damianslaw EC46 showing Greenland and Iceland Blocking and more North of East flow after this supposed S&SEly flow by late March -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Kentspur replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Tim Bland Hope so im off to the west midlands for a few days to my friends on that day lol slightly more chance of seeing any there than in mt low lying snowshield of an area not that many parts of England have seen much this winter -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Kentspur replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Kentspur replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The day 10 ECM shows a NWly 22nd Feb but if you look at the GFS ensembles this is too early for the main plunge to atleast get the mean to -5c 850 HPA around 3 days after ECM ends, so unless we see a progression of potential brought forward for me any possible faint interesting a cold spell is still out of reach of ECM/UKMO&GEM except in EC clusters and extended ensembles etc thats if anyone has anyone has any patience left. In the mean time a warm week ahead for Europe once more -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Kentspur replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well there you have it lots of bashing of ECM and UKMO and praise for the American model but GFS 12z op ended up a huge mild outlier still a downwards ensembles trend -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Kentspur replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Blimey a Day 9 instead of day 10 chart from ECM with -6c uppers over the Eastern side of the country is the model feeling alright? -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Kentspur replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
CFS keeps persisting with this cold Easterly lately and it's not like a million miles away but it is just the CFS. With the downwelling from the SSW to come I can see us having some dramatic changes so I'm not holding up the white flag for winter just yet. Hopefully the shorter range models will come up with something for us before March proper is here -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Kentspur replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
CFS brings the beast home is this where ECM&co will eventually lead us hope so! No lack of cold pools there! Solidly -12c 850s across England and Wales. Only 13 days away -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Kentspur replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The 850s don't seem to add up to the actual pressure charts shown on GFS again its on the mild end if not an outlier +12 around Norway! What the??! -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Kentspur replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
These GFS warm outliers appear to be nonstop on recent runs let's hope its not the trend setter like it was when the last cold spell fell apart! -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Kentspur replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looking at a location inside the Met warning area- Kidderminster near Birmingham you can see the difference with precipitation between ECM 0z &GFS 6z amounts, but also the GFS ensembles show a complete lack of snow unfortunately on Thursday this doesn't show ECM snow risk on Wetterzentrale -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Kentspur replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
2 days in a row the 6z the pick of the fi charts for me perfect ENEly set up for the South the Midlands and Eastern England hope its the trend setter GFS run -
Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
Kentspur replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Beautiful 6z for Eastern and SE England extending to the Midlands we finally get the infamous Sausage high!