Time for the latest update,
Please get involved on the dedicated Glastonbury forecast thread on the main forum here
[url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76531-glastonbury-wed-26-to-sun-30-june-2013/page-4#entry2714670"]http://forum.netweat...-4#entry2714670[/url]
Forecast models notably GFS had forecast in the region of 25-50mm of rain for the Glastonbury area over the past few days, needless to say this has not remotely occurred, this will have big implications going forward.
[b]G
There has been some rain on the Glastonbury Site over the past 24 hours, luckily the worst of the rain missed the site, with conditions underfoot remaining good.
As you more closer to the timings of any forecast, you can move from the overlying synoptic pattern to more specific weather details, and as such I will from now from break down the forecasts by day for the first time, and try to give a bit more detail, although I will keep the weekend a bit more "broad brush" for the time being.
Forecast Number 6 - Issued 7th June
[b]Pressure[/b]
There is High pressure to the SW of the UK and also towards the NE, however there is a mini trough towards the SW with pressure expected to be slightly below average. This is consistent with the trough expected in the South West approaches for the mid part of next week, so this may account fore the lowish overall pressure to the SW of the UK. This is definitely a concern, however these charts also allow for pressure to rise again towards
Some of you have been very kind to send some site photos and conditions are looking good, and if the models are correct for the next 6 days, there should be no reason for this to change.
I know some of you will be off to the festival for the next few days, so have a good one and remember to keep in touch via the Net Weather twitter account which will publish a link to all new blog posts.
Enough padding by me and on for with the forecast, which will again do the forecast for each day of the
This is the 3rd blog for the 2015 Glastonbury festival [24 to 28 June], the chase continues.
This weeks forecast is a mix of the long term term models used previously (mainly CFS) and shorter term models as we move as these can now start to predict the run up to the festival period.
This weeks forecast methods
1. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Net Weather Extra]
2. CFS Daily Charts updated daily [From Net Weather Extra]
3. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Meteociel.com
It's taken time, effort and server upgrades to get this running, but finally we have a new Hi-Res forecast model for the UK here on Netweather.
The model is called the NMM, it is used operationally by the NCEP in the USA and is known as a mesoscale model - which means it is high enough resolution to pick out small more localised weather features that lower resolution models will miss.
At the current time the Netweather NMM model is running at a resolution of 12km (0.09 degrees), which if
[b]Introduction [/b]
It remains a very disappointing start to Winter for the Alps, with very little snow for the lower slopes, However the cold overnight temperatures have meant that snow cannons have been in operation, and a large number of resorts have been able to open. However the lack of snow has meant that the opening Ski races schedule for Val D'Isere have had to be moved to Beaver Creek in North America.
More details on snow amounts and general conditions available on at the Ski Cl
Time for the latest update,
Please get involved on the dedicated Glastonbury forecast thread on the main forum here
[url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76531-glastonbury-wed-26-to-sun-30-june-2013/page-4#entry2714670"]http://forum.netweat...-4#entry2714670[/url]
A slight change in the forecast today, in that the pattern for this week and for the weekend is now agreed between the models, so I'll do the summary here to save late duplication.
Remaining unsettled this week, with some
Time for the latest update,
Please get involved on the dedicated Glastonbury forecast thread on the main forum here
[url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76531-glastonbury-wed-26-to-sun-30-june-2013/page-4#entry2714670"]http://forum.netweat...-4#entry2714670[/url]
Starting off with the
[b]GFS Operational Charts[/b]
As per yesterday, I'll start by trying to find the common ground between the runs. Remaining unsettled this week, with the risk of some heavy rain on Thursday. Low Press
Time for the latest update,
Please get involved on the dedicated Glastonbury forecast thread on the main forum here
[url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76531-glastonbury-wed-26-to-sun-30-june-2013/page-8"]http://forum.netweat...une-2013/page-8[/url]
[b]General Theme[/b]
A little bit more rain or showery outbreaks are possible tomorrow, however as expected high Pressure will steadily edge in across the UK over the start of next week. The start of next week looks mostly dry and settle
This new format is based on the post of Monday in the main Glastonbury thread on the forum, and this reflects the movement into the long term range of the main models.
[url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76531-glastonbury-wed-26-to-sun-30-june-2013/page-3"]http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76531-glastonbury-wed-26-to-sun-30-june-2013/page-3[/url]
[b]GFS Operational Charts [/b][based on 12Hz 12th June run]
Signs of High Pressure slowly re-establishing itself from Tuesday next week accord
This is the first blog for the 2014 Glastonbury festival [25 to 29 June]
At this stage of the forecast, I am using a variety of techniques.
1. [b]CFS Monthly Averages[/b]
2. [b]CFS Raw Daily Runs [/b]
3. [b]CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily[/b]
4. [b]MJO Index[/b]
So moving on to the detail.
1. [b]CFS Monthly Averages[/b]
These are produced weekly and this week Paul has very kindly supplied me with a higher resolution version of the forecast.
[attachment=212739:June Rainfall May 11.JPG
This is the latest blog for the Glastonbury festival.
Previous Runs
Forecast no 5 (08 June) - 6.0
Forecast no 6 (11 June) - 5.5
Forecast no 7 (14 June) - 4.5
Forecast no 8 (15 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 9 (16 June) - 6.0
Forecast no 10 (17 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 11 (18 June) - 5.0
Forecast no 12 (19 June) - 5.5
Forecast no 13 (20 June) - 4.5
with 0 = Dust Bowl, 10 = Mudbath
[b]Wednesday 25th[/b]
Good Agreement between the GFS runs, UKMO 06Hz run and both runs that the High Press
Since the last full blog on Wednesday, it has come to my attention that this blog or extracts from it have made the national press.
[url="http://www.guardian.co.uk/music/2013/jun/13/glastonbury-2013-weather-forecast"]http://www.guardian.co.uk/music/2013/jun/13/glastonbury-2013-weather-forecast[/url]
Don't know whether to take the nerd comment as a compliment, but fame at last, and a bit pressure in getting the forecast right.
Again we start off with the [b]GFS Operational Charts [/b][ba
This is the 11th blog, and there have some real ups and downs.
The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive.
The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive.
The 6th blog (Issued 15 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
The 7th blog (Issued 17 June) was slightly negative and scored 6.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
The 8th blog (Issued 18 Jun
This is the first blog for the 2015 Glastonbury festival [24 to 28 June], welcome to the roller coaster.
At this stage were are still using long term models, so should be taken with a cellar full of salt, Nevertheless here we go.
[b]Sources of Information[/b]
1. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Net Weather Extra]
2. CFS Daily Charts updated daily [From Net Weather Extra]
3. CFS Monthly Charts updated weekly [From Meteociel.com]
One thing you may be thinking why use July foreca
Time for the latest update,
Please get involved on the dedicated Glastonbury forecast thread on the main forum here
[url="http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76531-glastonbury-wed-26-to-sun-30-june-2013/page-8"]http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76531-glastonbury-wed-26-to-sun-30-june-2013/page-8[/url]
Thanks for all your nice comments on Twitter, I know that many of you will be going off to Glastonbury, and given the theme of this blog. The forecasts will continue right up to the start of t
Well we are nearly there, and for some of you this will be the last Glastonbury blog you read, so enjoy Glastonbury whatever the weather.
[b]Run up to festival[/b]
The promised rain arrived in Glastonbury, a little earlier than anticipated and looking at radar returns close to 10mm of rain fell in the past 24 hours.
Which according to people on site, hasn't made things too wet.
[b]Daily forecasts [/b]
[size=3][b]Wednesday 24th June[/b][/size]
As per recent forecast low Pressure remai
This is the 8th forecast blog for Glastonbury 2015.
The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive.
The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive.
The 6th blog (Issued 15 June) was slightly positive and scored 4.5 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
The 7th blog (Issued 17 June) was slightly negative and scored 6.0 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating.
So a definite trend towards a wet fe
The first midweek update concentrating on the shorter term models,
This forecast will contain information from 2 sources.
[b]1. Prognostic Charts at 6-10 day and 8-14 day [from NOAA][/b]
[b]6-10 day [/b]
[attachment=252588:610day.03 from 7 June.gif] [attachment=252606:610day.03 from 8 June.gif] [attachment=252589:610day.03 from 9 June.gif] [attachment=252590:610day.03 from 10 June.gif]
A definite trend for Pressure to build over the UK and especially towards the south west keeping con
[b]Forecast Number 5 - Issued 31st May[/b]
This forecast will continue the theme of adding more and more information as we get closer to the time.
[b]CFS forecasts - issued Weekly on NetWeather (June and July)[/b]
[b]Pressure[/b]
June has a big +ve anomaly to the West/ South west of the UK, and this covering much of the UK and running through to Scandinavia.
July in contrast has more has a mini trough over Northern UK with pressure around or just below normal or the UK (within 1
This is the 6th forecast blog for Glastonbury 2015.
The 4th blog (Issued 10 June) was mostly positive.
The 5th blog (Issued 13 June) was positive and scored 3 out of 10 on the Dustbowl - Mudbath rating. Things were looking positive.
This forecast will be split into 3 main sources
[b]1. Prognostic Charts at 6-10 day and 8-14 day [from NOAA][/b]
[attachment=253140:610day.03 from 14 June.gif] [attachment=253149:610day.03 from 15 June.gif]
[attachment=253141:814day.03 from 14 June.gif]
This is the 5th blog for the 2014 Glastonbury festival [25 to 29 June],
[b]Previous Blogs Summaries[/b]
No 1 Issued 11 May - Mostly Positive
No 2 Issued 18 May - Mostly Positive
No 3 Issued 25 May - Neutral
No 4 Issued 1 June - Neutral/Slightly Negative
At this stage of the forecast, I am using a variety of techniques.
[b]1. CFS Monthly Averages
2. CFS Raw Daily Runs
3. CFS Monthly Runs Run Daily
4. NOAA 500Mb Upper Charts[/b]
The NOAA upper charts are new for this week, as we
So all of a sudden it is two days to go before the gates open at Glastonbury 2014, do we finally have an idea of the weather for the festival. The general theme is sorted to an extent, a decent day Wednesday with the remnants the settled spell before getting worse Thursday/Friday, and possibly improving again over the weekend. However even the above summary give a large scope of variation for the detailed ground conditions at Glastonbury.
[b]Previous Runs[/b]
Forecast no 5 (08 June) - 6.0
F
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