[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Changeable with rain and strong winds at times; variable but overall mild temperatures[/b][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Last weeks highlights[/b][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Cold and frosty the start of last week, some hard night frosts, lowest values Sunday night -8.4c Llanwnnen, Pembrey -6.7c, Pershore -6.3c, then Monday night Pershore -6.3c, Hereford and Shobdon -6.1c. Lovely sunny weather by day
[font=arial][size=4][b]Current Situation [/b]
Heavy snow throughout the Alps last weekend transformed the Alps, with over 50cm of fresh snow widely and over a 1m in places. Things have turned slightly milder in recent days, so not quite as good as last weekend, but overall still a massive improvement.
[b]Synoptic Situation[/b]
The current pattern is a mobile generally westerly flow across the Atlantic, with a prominent Azores High (AZH). Currently the AZH has ridged further east across ma
[font=arial][size=3][b]Cold and dry with frost and local fog to mid week then milder and changeable with some rain[/b][/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3][b]Last weeks highlights[/b][/size][/font]
[font=arial][size=3]Very mild with some rain and drizzle up to last Tuesday night, Snowdonia receiving several inches of rain over a couple of days, although only a little rain for most of the Midlands. 13 or 14c reached in places both Monday and Tuesday with nights staying in double figures too,
Hi everyone, well its that time of the month again when I release my monthly forecast. My winter forecast released back in November seems to be doing okay at the moment you can still read it here [url="https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4843-winter-2014-2015-forecast-december-to-march/"]https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4843-winter-2014-2015-forecast-december-to-march/[/url] Anyway here are my latest thoughts on January 2015.
Made using the CFS long range model along with th
[b]Current Situation [/b]
Last week it was reported that conditions across the Alps were pretty poor for the time of year. The past week has been very mixed indeed with some snow over last weekend. This was followed by some very mild temps with freezing level reaching over 3000m. However for Christmas it turned colder with a little fresh snow in places.
[b]Synoptic Situation[/b]
However there is a big change for this weekend and into next week already in progress. The Low Pressure system th
[size=4][color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Changeable with rain at times and localised flooding; fine Christmas Day; potentially stormy late Friday into Saturday[/b][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Last weeks highlights[/b][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Very mild indeed during the middle of last week, highest readings on Thursday Hereford at 15.3c, much of the Midlands above 13c. Exceptionally mild by night, many places stayed above 11c du
[b]Current Situation [/b]
Definitely a week of contrasts, fronts from the North West brought snow to the Alps for the mid part of this week especially on Wednesday with parts of the French Alps and Switzerland seeing 20-30cm of fresh snow on upper slopes.
However there is a big but in that temperatures rose significantly with freeing levels well above 2000m.
In summary conditions are better than last week and with some good skiing conditions at the highest slopes. However conditions are still
[font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Changeable: Rain or showers at times, near average to mild temperatures; driest Midlands[/b][/size][/font]
[b]Last weeks highlights[/b]
[font=arial][size=3]An unsettled, often windy and chilly week gone, however temperatures were not far from the monthly average (around 8c) on most days, just that the wind made it feel quite cold However, a brief warm sector incursion on Tuesday saw maxima widely above 11c with a few spots such as Hereford managing a very m
[b]Background and Current Position[/b]
There have been a number of articles about the lack of snow in the Alps. As move in the middle of December, this is the time of year when many resorts open however the lack of snow at some resorts has meant this being delayed. What has helped though is some snowfall to low levels and some cold weather allowing those all important snow cannons to operate.
So in summary conditions are worse than normal, but we have seen worse years.
[b]Synoptic Patte
Tuesday 9th December - Snow shower from the west late in the day - No lying snow
Wednesday 10th December - Snow showers from the west - No lying snow
Thursday 11th December - Snow showers from the west - No lying snow
Friday 12th December - Snow shower from the west in the early hours - no lying snow
Friday 2nd January - Snow showers from the west - no lying snow
Saturday 10th January - Snow showers from the west - no lying snow
Sunday 11th January - Snow showers from the west for the firs
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[b]Headline: Unsettled, rather cold and often windy; showers especially across Wales with hill snow; overnight frost and ice[/b][/font][/color]
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[b]Last weeks highlights[/b][/font][/color]
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Rather cold but with plenty of dry weather last week, West Wales in particular having some sharp frosts. Lowest readings were -5.3c Llanwnnen and -4.8c Tirabad (Powys) on Tuesday night, then -6.3c Llawn
[b]Background and Current Position[/b]
This is the first Alps blog for the winter season 2014-15, so far this autumn/winter period it has been mixed for snow conditions. There has been some snow at times even down to some lower levels, however due to the milder weather recently much of this has thawed, although parts of Austria did see some fresh snow last week.
[b]Synoptic Pattern[/b]
Currently the main driver for the Alps is low pressure to the South West of Italy, with East to North
5th December: Wet snow showers in some parts of western Scotland in a NWly wind.
7-8th December: Some snow showers in a westerly wind across Scotland and parts of Northern Ireland and NW England. These showers continuing to affect northern and western areas first thing on the 8th.
9th December: Precipitation turned to snow in parts of Scotland in a brisk westerly wind.
10th December: Snow showers across parts of Scotland driven by a strong westerly wind.
11th December: Further snow s
[b]DECEMBER... [/b]A close to or slightly below average month with an unsettled and changeable first half with active weather fronts sweeping the country and areas of low pressure often close by to the north, delivering frequent windy and blusetry conditions, occasionally turbulent and it will be predominately below average in the north with intermittent wintry precipitation, slightly milder and calmer further south with some settled intervals from the SW introducing a few frosty nights. It shou
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[b]Headline: Becoming mostly dry and rather cold with some frosty and foggy nights[/b][/font][/color]
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[b]Last weeks highlights[/b]
Frosty nights early last week, Sunday night registered a low of -4.8c here at Llanwnnen, which, as occasionally happens, was colder than any of the official UK weather stations, Pembrey Sands (Carms) being the coldest of these at min -3.1c along with Benson (Oxon). A lovely sunny Monday follo
I released my winter forecast last week which can be viewed here [url="https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4843-winter-2014-2015-forecast-december-to-march/"]https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4843-winter-2014-2015-forecast-december-to-march/[/url] I will still do monthly forecast updates so here is December.
[b]Rainfall[/b] - Western Ireland and the North West of the UK could see rainfall being above average while the rest of the UK remains average.
[attachment=231116:decem
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Often dry but chilly with frost and fog up to Thursday; thereafter rain at times and milder[/b][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Last weeks highlights[/b][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The Lampeter area had an unexpected air frost last Monday night, the low of -0.7c here at Llanwnnen colder than any official UK weather station, closest values in our regions being Sennybridge and Shawbury minima 2.8c. Tuesd
I'm using the Climate Simulator which I've used over the past 2 years and found it to be very accurate for predicting average temperatures for long range forecasts and also I will be using the CFS maps as well. I have compared all of my data to last years to make comparisons and fine tune my forecast.
[b]December[/b]
Climate Simulator - The dark blue line at the top show our average temperatures and the red line just underneath it shows our forecast temperature for December. It's saying as
[color=rgb(40,40,40)][font='Open Sans'][size=3][center][b]2014/15 Winter Forecast [/b][/center][/size][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(40,40,40)][font='Open Sans'][size=3][center]My attempt at a winter forecast. Some of the theory is taken from a previous project i undertook at University. I have attached references that i have used/think may be of interest. Apologies if it does not flow well. Apparently i am dyslexic although i've read over it a few times and i think its devoid of mistakes![/cente
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Some rain at times but plenty of dry weather, rather benign[/b][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Last weeks highlights[/b][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A fairly mild breezy week gone with rain or showers at times, especially across Wales as is typical! A mostly dry start to last week for the Midlands in particular, not much rain until the latter part of the week, even then overall the week was not a wet o
[size=6]Barry's December Forecast[/size]
As I am bored, I thought for a bit of fun I would make a December forecast - not to be taken seriously! although I'll try and make it as accurate as possible!
Having read through some of the posts from the experts over on the stratosphere thread, I believe the Polar Vortex will continue to be attacked throughout December, and although this doesn't necessarily mean cold for the UK, I think we will get a bit of luck and it will effect the conditions pos
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Frequent rain or showers, brief drier interludes and windy at times; average to mild temperatures[/b][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Last weeks highlights[/b][/font][/color]
[color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Some quite cool weather for a time last week, maxima were under 10c for many on Tuesday while most places saw slight frosts and with the first snowfalls of Autumn to highest hills such as Snowdon and Pen y Fan. The col
A few days later than usual but here it is.
[b]November 2014[/b][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] - Based on computer generated long range forecasts and the climate simulator that takes the current climate conditions and simulates ahead of time for a forecast prediction.[/font][/color]
[b]Rainfall[/b][color=rgb(40,40,40)][font=helvetica] - All of Ireland, Wales and Western parts of England and Scotland look to see above average rainfall while Eastern parts of England and Scotland see a
