damianslaw

Shap at -0.1 already, another air frost. After a frost free first half to April, second half could end up quite frosty in Cumbria. Advise anyone potting tender plants etc to wait a while longer yet.

Just a couple or so of very light fleeting passing showers today.

Summer Sun Nearly a 1 degree drop in 5 days. A finish in the 9s increasingly likely based on current output, a late sudden heat spike could pop up, but the theme is for a sustained cool northerly sourced airflow, possibly becoming cut off in the latter stages of the month to a more cyclonic near average flow. We shall see. We are seeing some notably chilly minima in sheltered spots presently colder than at first anticipated.

We are eating deep into what is typically the Lake District 'drier season', its going to need a 2018 to redeem itself, but no signal for any substantive dry spell, though we are seeing much drier synoptics, heights look set to position themselves too far to the west, and we remain at the mercy of the euro trough. Whilst not unprecedented, it would be extremely exceptional to see the wet theme hold through to June. We shall see. 1998 is a good comparison year, we did manage a long dry warm spell in May at least, the less said about the summer the better though.

It depends on what is classed as disappointing.. and excellent.. I'm summising by disappointing you mean, wetter, duller and cooler than average, and by excellent you mean sunnier, warmer and drier than average. Also timelines important, over the 3 months as a whole, rather than parts of the seasons being either, or , or. By such definitions I think of many years that align well, probably 1983, spring was consistently wet, cool and dull, summer brought a very warm dry July, I think August was similiar, not sure about June. 2018 falls foul given the spring fell into both camps. 1995 brought a mixed Spring, sometimes wet, cool and dry, sometimes warm, dry and sunny, overall it was a very dry spring. so it can't be included. 1996 brought a fairly dry but cool dull spring, and a fairly average summer, mmm doesn't fit the bill. 2013 possibly closest contender since 1983, a wet cold dull spring, and a dry sunny warm summer, the hot July cancelled out the cool June, average - warm August. 1983, 2013 fit the definition in this context.

Certainly the outlook is very different fayre to what we've experienced for quite some time. Can't recall the last time we had a cold euro trough and strong heights to our NW linking into the pole. We've seen alot of troughing over and to the SW of UK but not to our east and south east. If any time of year is most likely to produce such synoptics its now, complete opposite to the south west airstream, instead we have a NE flow. Short term, a pleasant spell for far west parts, with dry sunny conditions and respectable temps, further east, cool cloudy with showery dank weather. Next week could well turn quite unsettled for many as lower heights push east , cloud, rain and supressed temps, not what many I expect are wanting.

A dismal day in the end, the rain was moderate to heavy for a number of hours. Cleared now, but we have low cloud cover and its quite gloomy. Shap has had its wettest April on record so far, and we have only another 12 days to go. April 24 will be remembered unfondly despite the warmth up until Sunday all its done is added fuel to any precipitation, we are now in a much cooler and settled spell, but any lengthy dry period looks on thin ice.

Shap went down to -4.3 degrees in the early hours. A cold overcast morning has given way to light patchy rain. Current temp a chilly 8.4 degrees.

An odd month, akin to the extreme opposites 2011 and 2012, 2011 very warm and dry and sunny, 2012 very wet dull and cold. Instead of the very wet and dull it was unusually cold and dry, whereas 2020 was sunny dry and very mild. Interesting to note how we sometimes have back to back opposite months in a calandar year. May 20 and 21 same. March 12 and 13 another contrast. July 22 and 23.. Feb 18 and 19 in terms of extreme cold and heat.

In an average year we usually have to wait until May before seeing our first 20 degrees, but in recent years often April has produced it, sometimes March. Looking at the trend for the remainder of April, it looks like it won't occur this month. 25 degrees can be hard to achieve in depths of summer in some years! Last July a case in point, not once.. but usually June will bring our first 25 degrees. In a number of years May delivers the goods, if high pressure sits overhead for a number of days. 25 degrees is the barometer of a very good summers day here, typically high 20s are not easy to achieve, but recently becoming easier and easier.

As per yesterday, we have stayed dry. I thought we might catch a shower or two. A cool feel though despite the sunshine. A lovely evening, clear skies. May see an air frost early hours.

SunSean Shap 7 hrs up to the 11th - appauling! Sunshine levels in the past few days have been alot better, and with anticipated outlook, April 24 at least here in Cumbria may well end up an average month sunshine wise after such a low base state at mid point.

Models holding firm on a generally more settled theme compared to anything since mid January. I say 'more settled', not exclusively settled which I would describe as dry throughout. After tomorrow's frontal features work through, high pressure looks set to osscilate in our vicinity, first to the west, then building through the UK over the weekend and then advecting north west, pulling in a north easterly flow. I'm waiting for the often used phrase at this time of year 'west is best', all very common synoptics second half of Spring. Look back at the weather archives and you will see this type of synoptic feature often in many years, and often for quite some time. Northerlies and easterlies reach their annual peak hereon until June. For someone in the 'west', its why I rate May my favourite month of the year, most likely to experience less in the way of dank westerlies and southwesterlies, by May the sun is just as strong as in high summer but air temps are tempered.

Interesting stats, not many examples of significant falls as I thought the case for April, probably also May. 1995 keeps cropping up as a comparator month for 2024..

A chilly start. Bright rather than sunny, clouds may bubble up to produce a shower or two. Current temp 8.0 degrees.