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  2. → Viewing Profile: Posts: Thundery wintry showers

Thundery wintry showers

Member Since 25 Feb 2003
Offline Last Active Today, 00:12

Posts I've Made

In Topic: Early May 1995: 20+c Then A Week Later, Wintry Showers

Yesterday, 23:28

Indeed. I recall that the Tyne and Wear area fully experienced that heatwave early in the month thanks to a south to south-westerly airstream helping to fend off the sea breezes and it got to 24-25C across the region on the 4th. After the breakdown on the 6th/7th I remember a spell dominated by sunshine and showers from the 8th-19th, but a weak front brought a longer spell of rain on the afternoon of the 14th and it was grey and raw on the 17th due to that southerly tracking depression (with sleet/snow locally to low levels inland). There were also sleety showers about in the North East on the 11th/12th, with some sleet mixed with rain showers at Cleadon late on the 11th. The anticyclone around the 20th-23rd turned out to be quite a cloudy one, followed by a return to the theme of sunshine and showers, with warmer southerly or south-westerly winds- I think some parts also had a thundery outbreak on the 24th.

In Topic: Model Output Discussion 14th May 2012 Onwards

Yesterday, 23:21

Looking over the GFS outputs, the high pressure would bring plenty of warm sunshine for most of us during next week but also some complications- a weakened high allowing an increasing number of showers to develop during Monday-Wednesday and then an Atlantic system bringing a cloudier muggy day on Thursday, before warm sunshine returns on Friday. It reminds me of how June 2006 started off- something for most of us I'd imagine. The ECMWF 12Z operational run would probably give a similar sequence of events. The latter stages of the ECM run again suggest quite a stubborn Euro high/Atlantic trough pattern which could give some warm/hot sunshine and the possibility of thundery outbreaks, while GFS suggests a drier, quieter and less hot scenario but with less likelihood of cooler cloudier weather heading into eastern areas than the 12Z showed.

At present it is looking likely that high pressure will be close by for the foreseeable future but it is questionable where it will end up. The odds seem weighted in favour of a favourable positioning for sunshine and warmth (perhaps heat) though.

In Topic: How Hot Do You Like It In Summer?

Yesterday, 23:03

View Postdavehsug, on 24 May 2012 - 22:15 , said:

We do get used to high temperatures though. I remember 1976 very well & yes it was consistently hot, but you become acclimatised after a while & adjusted your activities accordingly. Even in 2006 after a few days, you learned how to cope & deal with the heat & that was much more short lived.
It depends on the degree of heat for me. I remember that during my 2010 holiday in Provence, southern France, with daytime maxes of 30-35C and overnight min of 15-20C, I coped quite well during the first 4-5 days and then became drained by the heat (and the overnight minima were at least as large a factor as the daytime maxima). The 40-degree heat during the French August 2003 heatwave was impossible for me to remotely hope to acclimatise to.
But if we're talking daytime temperatures in the mid to high 20s and nudging the low 30s and minima in the region of 12 to 16C then I generally acclimatise quite well, which is why I had few issues with heat during July 2006. I recall struggling with the heat of August 1995 but that reflected my lower tolerance of heat back then and I doubt that heat would be a major issue for me if the synoptics were to be repeated this summer. On the other hand I might struggle with a repeat of August 1997 as that month had a strong emphasis on high minima.

In Topic: Fed Up With Overcast, Rain And Cold?

Yesterday, 17:07

It's happened a fair bit in recent summers- we've had lots of people hoping for a hot spell, and then when it comes (late July 2008, late June in 2009 and 2010) threads complaining about the heat have appeared. The bottom line is that the weather can never please everyone, although of course some types of weather please more than others.

I doubt I'll be complaining anytime soon if this Atlantic trough/Euro high setup verifies.

In Topic: Model Output Discussion 14th May 2012 Onwards

Yesterday, 15:35

Indeed, strong support for an evolution into the "Atlantic trough/Euro high" setup, which some of you may have seen me making favourable references to (from a heat/sunshine point of view) in the Summer 2012 thread. In high summer (July/August) a jet stream tracking SW-NE at our end of the Atlantic is generally required for it to arise, but in May/June, when the jet tends to be weaker, it is more likely to arise from a blocked pattern with low pressure stuck out to the west and high pressure over central and western Europe.

The ECMWF was showing the Atlantic crashing through earlier but the latest two runs have suggested that it may have been over-progressive, and it is now showing the trough stalling in the mid-Atlantic, and the ensembles show broad support for this. The setup shown by GFS/UKMO/ECM for early to mid next week would probably bring warmer weather with some sunshine and increasing probability of thundery showers due to the slack nature of the high pressure.

Into FI the GFS sets up the Atlantic trough so far west that we end up with high pressure to the N and NW and dry sunny weather in the west, but potentially cool and cloudy in the east with north-easterly winds, contrasting with the ECMWF operational run's scenario of heat and thundery outbreaks. Thus beyond early to mid next week there remain a range of possibilities.

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